The debate over artificial intelligence and jobs may seem like a thoroughly juiced orange. Most of such arguments begin and end with back-of-the-envelope automation estimates: how many tasks AI can perform, how many workers these models replace. (Less considered, unfortunately, is how many new tasks and whole jobs might be created.) Those things matter, of course. And we’ll see how things play out...
The article presents a compelling narrative centered on the tension between technological advancement and human adaptation, deploying a classic “delayed impact” framework – echoing the historical trajectory of electricity and the assembly line. It’s a deliberately cautious assessment, framing the AI disruption not as a sudden, apocalyptic event, but as a messy, potentially destabilizing reorganization process. The core of the argument—that the “J-curve” explains current underperformance and that...