The bond market’s pricing suggests a growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will be forced into rate hikes later this year, despite its current cautious stance. This narrative is reinforced by the inversion of short-term Treasury yields above the Fed’s target rate, a historical precursor to policy tightening. However, the debate over inflation measurement—particularly the use of trimmed mean metrics—highlights a deeper tension: whether the Fed’s reliance on flawed or lagging indicators has ...