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Myrtle Beach, South Carolina—Modern political debates are often an elaborate subgenre of theater. Candidates have lines to deliver and go out of their way to do so, regardless of what question is asked or what their opponent says. Meanwhile, only the most civically engaged or politically deranged voters watch, as the debates are less arguments than opportunities for b-roll for campaign ads or clips for social media.
The debate last week in South Carolina’s Senate runoff was something else entirely.
Darline Graham, the appointed incumbent to the seat that opened up after the death of her brother, Lindsey Graham, was asked a straightforward question: “Are Taiwan and the South China Sea national security issues for the United States, and, if so, why?”
Her response was jaw-dropping. “I just want to be honest here. I’m not on national security,” she replied. “I’m not that informed on national security.” Then, after a pause, she added an inspired riff: “But I do support the military.” Graham went on to note that both her late brother and father served before reiterating: “National security is not my thing, not my area of expertise.”
This answer may not only prove fatal to her newborn political career. It could also further accelerate President Donald Trump’s shift into lame-duck status within the Republican Party.
Trump’s endorsements in Republican primaries have long been uniquely robust. Although his record has been juiced by his propensity to back even candidates running unopposed, he has had the ability to bend GOP primary voters to his will—even during the nadir of his authority within the party, in 2022. At his peak, he could intimidate established incumbents into retiring. But, as the 2028 presidential election approaches, Trump’s influence will be tested. He still may be beloved by the Republican base, but as his days left in office dwindle, can he still call the shots? And when the time comes, will his endorsement still be all-powerful when the party’s voters pick his successor?
This is even more important in South Carolina, a state that has long occupied a crucial place on the Republican primary calendar, for which a win is vital to securing the party’s nomination in 2028.
Graham was never going to have an easy time running for Senate under any circumstances. Senate seats in South Carolina become open with the approximate frequency of a total solar eclipse. It’s an opportunity every ambitious politician dreams of. And, by all accounts, Graham was neither ambitious nor a politician until her brother’s sudden death in July. Initially viewed as a placeholder when appointed to fill the seat, Graham quickly became the anointed candidate of Trump and Senate leadership and announced she would seek the full six-year team.
But as a political neophyte, she appears to have had little time to consider some of the major questions she’ll be asked to address as a senator—a deficiency that was just as glaring when she took questions from reporters outside Charleston as it was on the debate stage.
Graham has taken a hard line on immigration since entering politics, stating that she was further to the right than her late brother in an attempt to appeal to the MAGA base: “I loved my brother Lindsey, and I miss him so much every day. But on illegal immigration, I’m tougher than he was. It’s simple. If you are here illegally, you’ve got to go,” she told a cheering crowd.
Slate asked whether her belief that all immigrants who lack permanent status should be deported extends to those covered by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which provides some deportation protections for children brought to the U.S. at a young age. Graham answered: “Well, when it comes to birthright citizenship, that’s what I want to talk about. I think it’s a shame that people are coming here to have children just to earn citizenship.”
Asked as a follow-up if she had any thoughts at all on DACA, Graham said, “Not right now.”
That was more than she shared when asked if she agreed with her brother’s vote to certify the 2020 election. As she was gathering her thoughts, Sen. Tim Scott jumped in to say: “I think it’d be helpful for us to talk about the issues of tomorrow and not yesterday.”
Graham seemed to silently agree.
Her remarkable lack of experience may help explain why Graham didn’t scare anyone out of the race when she announced her plan to keep the seat. The frenzied field included Rep. Ralph Norman, a Freedom Caucus stalwart who just lost a race for governor; Rep. Russell Fry, a MAGA ally; and former Gov. Mark Sanford, a quirky fiscal conservative with a salacious personal history.
In the first round of voting, which occurred two weeks before Tuesday’s runoff, Graham finished first, with just under 33 percent of the vote. Norman was second, with almost 25 percent. Fry and Sanford followed. But since no one got the majority necessary to avoid a runoff, voters are returning to the polls this week to pick a winner.
That election has turned into an epic battle, pitting Trump and much of the traditional establishment against the party’s conservative grassroots. It has also become a key test of the power of the president’s endorsement at a time when its value has eroded. Trump backed the state’s lieutenant governor, Pamela Evette, in the gubernatorial primary in June. After an unconvincing showing in the first round, he eventually endorsed both Evette and her opponent in the runoff, which Evette lost by a 2-to-1 margin.
Even outside the Palmetto State, three different Trump-endorsed candidates lost just a week ago (two in Florida congressional races, and one in Wyoming’s gubernatorial race). The president’s endorsement still matters, but it’s clearly no longer a magic bullet.
Trump tested the strength of that endorsement at a rare campaign rally in Myrtle Beach on Friday, a last-ditch effort to boost turnout for Graham. The rally was held in Myrtle Beach because the area features a trove of up-for-grabs votes in the runoff. In the first round of voting, Fry, who represents the area—and not Graham or Norman—won the region handily. In Horry County, of which Myrtle Beach is the largest city, the population has skyrocketed in recent decades. It’s fueled by transplants, many of whom are conservative from more northern states. The accents there are as apt to hail from the South Shore of Long Island as from South Carolina. It’s a part of the state where voters aren’t likely to have supported Lindsey Graham for decades as a pillar of the traditional GOP; it’s also a part of the state where they aren’t likely to have scorned him for decades as a pillar of the traditional GOP. Instead, it’s a part of the state where they know him as that guy who likes Trump from cable news.
Trump never mentioned Norman at all. (In fact, Darline Graham was the only speaker at the entire rally to mention her opponent by name). Instead, the president made his appeal entirely about himself while contrasting Graham not against her primary opponent but against the Democrats.
He noted the long-documented phenomenon that his supporters frequently fail to vote in nonpresidential elections. “And the problem that we have is, they say that Trump does great when he’s on the ballot, but when he’s not on the ballot, his people don’t come and they don’t vote for senators, congressmen, and other Republicans,” he said. “So what I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot. Just come and vote. It’s so important. So just say that I’m on the ballot one more time—you’ve got to say it. And you’ve got to come out and vote. Because if we lose, you’re going to lose your border. You’re going to lose your tax cuts.”
He also tried to subtly rebut concerns among those who had watched the debate and were appalled by Graham’s gaffe. Trump touted his endorsed candidate to the wary in the audience: “She’s never done it before, but she knows politics well. She loves our military. She loves things that have to do with greatness for America.”
The crowd at the rally was broadly for Graham—but then again, it’s never an ideal sign when a candidate’s support at an election-eve rally is less than unanimous. There was little enthusiasm for the appointed incumbent’s record, credentials, vision, or anything else. Instead, the support was a proxy vote for her late brother or, simply, the president. Marlene Blaylock of Myrtle Beach felt confident because she had inherited her staff from her brother. “She’s got Lindsey’s staff behind her,” Blaylock said, while also noting Trump’s support for Darline Graham. For Mike Obenshain, who had shown up in a shirt proclaiming that “Bigfoot is more believable than 81 million votes [for Joe Biden],” it was simple: “Trump wants her. I’ll go along with what his judgment is.”
Others were more skeptical. Steve Gutshall of Murrells Inlet, was left astounded by Graham’s debate performance and felt that plenty of others were too. “You know how many people are not going to vote for her now.” Gutshall, who had cast a ballot for Fry during the first round of voting, was still undecided. “I really don’t care for Ralph Norman and some of the things he’s done.” However, he said, he thought Trump would find Graham far easier to sway his way than Norman.
Many rally attendees were there just for Trump. The crowd was filled with people who had come from out of state because going to Trump rallies is what they do as a hobby. There were also those who had come locally for Trump and had little interest in the Senate election, such as a voter Slate spoke with who thought Darline Graham was Lindsey Graham’s widow, not his sister.
A different voter, Bennett Bracell of Charleston, had skipped a day of high school to drive up two hours for the rally. “I’m not really here for the Senate,” he said. “I’m just trying to watch the president.” He wasn’t planning to vote for Graham, though, after the debate. “I just didn’t like what she said about the foreign policy.” He seemed skeptical about voting at all on Tuesday.
While Graham may have spent her Friday night at a Trump rally, Norman spent his Saturday night at a local Republican Party dinner. In the banquet room of a Shriners lodge in exurban Charleston, Norman was the last of 10 speakers who followed a drinks reception, sit-down dinner, and dessert at what was the Sixth Annual Dorchester County Republican Party Faith, Family, and Freedom Dinner. (And for those Dorchester County Republicans who couldn’t get excited by faith, family, or freedom, there was an open bar to get them jazzed up.)
Norman had long digested his appetizers (a couple of slices of charcuterie, a scoop of pimento cheese, and some nuts and olives), as well as the full buffet-style barbecue dinner, by the time he got up to address the room, which was now half empty. He was the last speaker of the three-hour event, and thunder had been audible outside for over an hour.
The hard-line conservative gave a version of his stump speech in which he attacked the Senate for being where “good bills go to die,” condemned Anthony Fauci for “killing a million people with the COVID virus,” and denounced Graham for being funded by “Washington and the lobbyists.” Regarding the latter, Norman again brought up her recent debate. “If you have not watched the debate, you probably ought to watch that,” he said, to knowing laughter. He ended his remarks by stating, of the election in only three days, “Don’t forget: Next Tuesday, go to the polls.” He added succinctly, “We’re going to win this election.”
And then, even after the departure of many hardy attendees who had made it through the whole event, he remained. Norman had already worked the room at the cocktail hour and during a break in the meal. But there were still Republican faithful to talk to, and if they had stayed for a three-hour dinner, they certainly would be voting in an August runoff.
Norman’s attitude toward Graham was almost dismissive. He was bemused when he talked to Slate on Sunday about the debate during an event in Charleston. “I always knew Taiwan. That was easy. I’m surprised she couldn’t do it.” At times, he almost seemed ready to pivot to a general election, such as at the Charleston event, when the Republican congressman told a crowd that the real threat came from socialists and communists, noting ominously that Pete Buttigieg was in South Carolina that day.
Norman’s practice of old-fashioned retail politics is faced off by a barrage of television ads on Graham’s behalf. In the weeks leading up to the runoff, he has faced a torrent of spending from outside groups attacking him. Although there have been some pro-Graham spots, millions of dollars have been paid for ads that bash Norman as a career politician who has opposed Trump and is weak on immigration.
Rep. Nancy Mace, the outgoing Republican member of Congress from Charleston, told Slate how appalled she was that “every time I turn on some streaming station, I have a Ralph Norman attack on.” She added, “They’re spending millions of dollars against him, and he’s a good guy.” Mace has backed Norman in the Senate race after running against him for the Republican nomination for governor earlier this year.
The three-term representative, one of the more memorable members of Congress, also noted how unpracticed Graham is at politics. Mace stated that she ran into the newly appointed incumbent at a recent event, but “she didn’t know who I was.” In reflection, Mace added: “I’m one of seven House members in our delegation. You should know who your delegate is. I’m just really concerned. I mean, that’s not just ego. That’s saying, ‘Hey, you need to know the people that you work with, or that you’re supposed to be working with, hand in glove.’ ”
Graham was meeting and greeting voters on a steamy Sunday afternoon at a waterfront venue in suburban Charleston. The mostly middle-aged crowd featured men in boat shoes and women with jewelry at an outdoor space where boats docked near the restaurant. There was free food, including shrimp and barbecue sandwiches for attendees, but the real demand was for free glasses of water as the well-heeled Republicans sought shade while also vying for a photograph with their new senator.
Margaret Emmons, from Mount Pleasant, came from a political family upstate and had long known Graham. She thought she represented a fresh face and contrasted that with Norman, whom she saw as a career politician forever running for office.
Graham certainly emphasized that she was a fresh face in brief remarks that largely mirrored what she had said in Myrtle Beach, with a new shot at Norman for calling her fellow senators “swamp creatures.” She added, “That’s not going to get us anywhere.” Instead, she repeatedly emphasized that she was “not a politician,” adding, “You know who else wasn’t a politician? President Trump, right? And he’s done a pretty damn good job.”
Trump, of course, remains remarkably popular among Republicans in the Palmetto State. But although Lindsey Graham’s memory was evoked in what was the heart of his base in the affluent suburbs of Charleston, the late senator was not exactly a beloved figure among hardcore conservatives in South Carolina. Graham had not gotten over 60 percent in a competitive primary since 2008 and had required outside money to avoid a runoff in his June primary. As Adam Morgan, a Norman supporter and former state representative, told Slate, “Lindsey had a cap on his popularity, and I think that’s reflected in the polls.”
Turnout is expected to be low for the runoff. After all, it will be the fourth major Republican primary in a 10-week period. There are yard signs out in highway medians from the first of those primaries in June, let alone for Tuesday’s race. This election will draw only the most committed voters to come out and cast ballots at such an odd time. It’s still the summer—the August heat is alleviated in South Carolina only by late-afternoon thunderstorms. But it’s also the school year, with every public school in the state open and parents already ferrying their children back and forth each day.
Norman will likely win both his home base in suburban Charlotte and the archconservative area upstate that Lindsey Graham lost two months ago to a fringe opponent. The question is whether enough traditional Republicans in the rest of the state are motivated to come out for Darline either for her own sake or because Trump urged them to do so.
Morgan was blithe about the impact of endorsements. “I think the reality is, South Carolinians don’t generally care that much about endorsements,” he said. “It can sway, and it does sway some voters, but I think it’s less effective here than other places”; he noted that Republican primary votes were more sophisticated because of the state’s First in the South presidential primary.
That primary, of course, hangs over all of this. Trump’s ability to select a successor will be tested by Tuesday’s result. South Carolina has long seen factional warfare between the insurgent right and the more traditional establishment. A victory for Norman, who backed Nikki Haley in the 2024 presidential primary, will not only be a poke in the eye for Trump but give a statewide power base to a candidate who is beholden to neither the traditional GOP establishment nor the new MAGA one.
It would also prove that Trump’s endorsement, while still powerful, is not quite what it was. It’s clear that the president has the power to defeat a candidate, as shown with incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy or Congressman Thomas Massie, but a win for Norman would raise the question of whether Trump can single-handedly anoint one. The answer to that question, especially in an early-primary state like South Carolina, has the potential to shape the decisions that a number of prominent Republicans make over the next year.