With Abelardo de la Espriella set to become Colombia’s new president on Friday, his relationship with neighboring Venezuela is increasingly under scrutiny.
Colombia shares a more than 1300 mile land border with Venezuela, which is undergoing a complex political shift after Nicolás Maduro’s capture by the United States in January.
Latin America Reports spoke with analysts to understand what relations between the two nations may look like in the months and years to come.
Deputy director of the School of International Studies at the Central University of Venezuela, Maiger Dalay Urbina Romero, identified three key areas of focus for de la Espriella with regards to Venezuela: border security, investment, and the energy sector.
Border security has become a key issue due to the presence of armed groups along the border, in particular the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissident factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).
Maduro’s arrest has also ushered in a new interest in the Venezuelan market among Colombian business leaders; at least 17 companies in sectors such as energy, commerce, and aviation have sought to participate in recent months in the economic recovery underway in Venezuela.
Urbina Romero believes that Washington will play a fundamental role in bilateral relations due to its influence on the government of Delcy Rodríguez and close ties with de la Espriella.
“The backbone of these issues stems not only from the interests of both countries but also from the clear presence and influence of the United States of America in both administrations. It is foreseeable that this will be the focus of attention and that, based on these issues, pragmatic political relations will be built,” he said.
This analysis aligns with that of the consulting firm Colombia Risk Analysis, which reported a few days ago that de la Espriella will not have much autonomy in his relations with Caracas, which will instead be coordinated by the Donald Trump administration.
“Colombia’s room to maneuver in influencing Venezuela’s political developments will remain limited, and bilateral cooperation will depend primarily on the agreements the United States deems compatible with its priorities regarding security, energy, and migration,” said a report by the consultancy. “Consequently, Bogotá will likely act as a facilitator of an agenda defined by third parties,” it added.
Migrants at risk
Another key issue is migration; Colombia is home to the largest number of Venezuelan migrants; of the nearly 7 million citizens who emigrated as a result of the Venezuelan crisis, some 2.8 million are in Colombia.
Urbina Romero warns that de la Espriella pledged crackdown on insecurity and criminal groups could infringe on the rights of Venezuelan migrants. there will be a trend toward a more restrictive approach to public policy, which has an impact on Venezuelan migrants.
“There is a high risk that migrants will be criminalized,” said the academic.
He explained that de la Espriella may link the issue of armed groups – “natural rivals of Abelardo’s administration”– to Venezuelan migrants.
Colombia Risk Analysis predicted that under de la Espriella’s administration, migration is likely to be treated as an issue of border control, internal security, and transnational crime.
It added that de la Espriella will likely pander to the U.S. agenda of border externalization, curtailing asylum, deportations, and route control.
Venezuelans in Colombia will also be more vulnerable, according to Colombia Risk Analysis, due to last year’s shuttering of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which funded programs supporting migrants. The report added that the Colombian state has a limited capacity to fill the gap left behind by USAID.
“Without a sustained immigration policy, irregular migration will increase costs in health care and education, limit tax revenue, exacerbate labor vulnerabilities, and make it easier for illegal economies to exploit migrants,” it warned.
The report added that in border areas, the lack of institutional support for migrants could enable armed groups to recruit, extort, and control movement at informal crossing points.
What about the economy?
Colombia and Venezuela have historically enjoyed close economic ties but in recent years, bilateral trade has been strained by border closures, sanctions, and Venezuela’s economic decline.
There are signs, however, that Colombian companies are betting on a return to prosperous relations.
Several companies spy opportunity in Venezuela following Maduro’s arrest. Airlines like Avianca and Wingo have already expanded operations while the D1 supermarket chain plans to expand its presence in the country.
Another major investment comes from the Nutresa food multinational which, according to reports by the newspaper El Colombiano, has authorized a tripling of its monthly exports to Venezuela.
Yet experts say that economic relations will not be normalized overnight.
“From a communications standpoint, it is foreseeable that there will be some distance and caution on the part of [Colombian] spokespersons – not only from the Foreign Ministry but also from national government officials,” said Urbina Romero. This is due to the threat of U.S. intervention, which the expert believes will loom over the relationship.
However he believes the opportunity spied by the private sector will eventually encourage the pro-business de la Espriella administration to improve economic ties with Venezuela.
“Given the pragmatism of certain sectors—especially the private sector, both in Colombia and Venezuela—it is quite likely that closer cooperation will emerge,” said the international relations expert.
Featured image description: Split image of Delcy Rodrigues (L) and Abelardo de la Espriella (R).
Featured image credit: Delcy Rodriguez via Estanislao Santos / Instituto PATRIA. Abelardo de la Espriella via @ABDELAESPRIELLA on X.