As the 2026 season comes to a close, it’s a good time to look at teams that have defied their expectations, for better or worse.
Whether they are clubs that have surpassed projections or those performing under expectations, there are a handful of teams that fit this criteria. For this exercise, we looked at the FanGraphs’ preseason projections and targeted clubs that were either over or under their projected win totals by a sizable margin.
Here are six teams that have defied their expectations -- in either direction -- in 2026.
The following numbers are entering Saturday’s games.
Brewers (on pace for: +17 wins over projected)
The biggest reason: Massive breakouts from several players
Jacob Misiorowski has been the best pitcher on the planet, as the breakout star leads the Majors in ERA (1.95), strikeouts (236) and FanGraphs’ version of WAR (6.0). He’s been joined by Jake Bauers (.890 OPS and 25 home runs), Logan Henderson (2.34 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 16 starts) and Kyle Harrison (3.66 ERA and 134 strikeouts in 110 2/3 innings).
The Brewers always seem to defy expectations and given that the club led the Majors with 97 wins last season, maybe this isn’t much of a surprise. And this type of thing just might keep happening given the farm system Milwaukee has: MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 prospect Jesús Made and Luis Peña (No. 21) could be the next wave of high-upside talents to keep this train moving.
Rays (on pace for: +16 wins over projected)
The biggest reason: The role players
The Rays already had a decent foundation in place with the likes of Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, Drew Rasmussen and Jonathan Aranda. After finishing with 77 wins in 2025, though, it was clear that more was needed from the supporting cast. And that’s exactly what they’ve received this season.
Nick Martinez, who signed a one-year deal this February, has proven to be one of last offseason’s shrewd signings with a 2.92 ERA in 28 starts and making his first All-Star team. Victor Mesa Jr., acquired in a minor trade with the Marlins in February, has provided game-changing outfield defense and has a .816 OPS in 66 games. And there’s been big growth from already-employed Rays like Bryan Baker, Chandler Simpson, Ian Seymour and Johnny DeLuca.
White Sox (on pace for: +14 wins over projected)
The biggest reason: The offense
After finishing as one of baseball’s worst offenses last year, the White Sox find themselves near the top of the league in most categories -- the club ranks sixth in home runs and seventh in runs scored. Chicago’s surprise signing of Munetaka Murakami has certainly helped, given that he’s crushed 31 homers with an .819 OPS, but there’s been so much more.
Miguel Vargas is enjoying a massive breakout season with 4.5 WAR and 30 homers. Like Vargas, Tristan Peters was also a surprise All-Star and has been a do-it-all performer for the Sox. Add in Colson Montgomery (31 homers), Sam Antonacci (.365 OBP) and Chase Meidroth (.747 OPS, 3.9 WAR) and it’s easy to see how Chicago is at this point.
Mariners (on pace for: -12 wins under projected)
The biggest reason: Underperforming stars
The Mariners were one win away from reaching their first World Series in 2025, putting plenty of expectations on the ‘26 group. With largely the same team returning, it’s been a tough performance for a Mariners club in a winnable AL West division. That’s been mostly due to the big stars taking a big step back.
Another 60-homer season from Cal Raleigh was unrealistic but a .666 OPS and fewer than 30 homers probably wasn’t expected. Julio Rodríguez is having a career-worst season both at the plate and in center field. Josh Naylor and a plethora of Mariners starting pitchers have also failed to repeat their 2025 seasons or take another step forward.
Mets (on pace for: -14 wins under projected)
The biggest reason: The big offseason additions
Much has been and will be written about the 2026 Mets season, but the easiest place to focus on is the monumental offseason overhaul. Out went Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Díaz and Jeff McNeil. In came Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr. and many others. On the whole, the massive changes have not paid dividends for the Mets.
Bichette has seen his OPS dip from .840 last year to .714 in the first season of his three-year contract. Peralta struggled before he was dealt to the Rays at the Trade Deadline. Robert similarly struggled and was claimed off waivers by the Orioles in August. Semien’s decline might be the most notable of them all, as the veteran has endured the worst season of his career by far.
Giants (on pace for: -14 wins under projected)
The biggest reason: Underperforming veterans
The Giants were largely relying on their core group of veterans entering the season, which has made that group’s combination of underperformance and injuries a blow to the 2026 season. Rafael Devers, to his credit, has more than pulled his weight with 35 home runs and an .858 OPS, but many of the other veterans have struggled to perform to their career norms, or have experienced injuries.
Logan Webb, an annual All-Star and Cy Young Award contender, is running a 4.10 ERA that would be his highest in a full MLB season. Matt Chapman had a .368 SLG and seven home runs in 84 games before his season ended early due to injury. Willy Adames has struggled on both sides of the ball and has been out since late August with an injury. Add these all up and it’s led to one of the worst Giants seasons in recent memory.