…eyes 3.7GW solar manufacturing capacity by 2027
Abba Aliyu, managing director of the Rural Electrification Agency (REA), has noted the ongoing structural transition in Nigeria’s off-grid electricity sector. He highlighted the shift from small-scale pilot projects to a bankable, utility-style market following key regulatory interventions by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).
Speaking in Abuja during a knowledge-exchange visit by the Zanzibar Utilities Regulatory Authority (ZURA), Aliyu stated that this shift has paved the way for the construction of 48 interconnected mini-grid sites across 19 states, cutting across 10 electricity distribution companies (DisCos). These projects are being rolled out as one unified programme under the Interconnected Mini-Grid regulatory framework introduced by NERC.
According to Aliyu, the scheme is expected to deliver 252,505 new and improved electricity connections when completed, alongside 213.3 megawatts-peak of solar photovoltaic capacity, 166.1 megawatt-hours of storage, and 82.5 megawatts of peak load.
Expanding mini-grid caps and developer ecosystems
“The mini-grid regulations last year had a cap of 1 megawatt. We can’t build a mini-grid above 1 megawatt. What we showed the regulator – the economics and the technical data – they changed the regulation. Now we can build a mini-grid of up to 10 megawatts interconnected and 5 megawatts isolated,” Aliyu said.
He explained that this regulatory change has opened the door for larger, more bankable projects. It has also helped reshape the market from a contractor-led space into one increasingly driven by developers and utility-scale operators.
“We are no more contractors. They come, fix all, do this. But when we created that ecosystem and opportunity, they started transitioning from contractors to developers. And now that we have 1,350 mini-grids, we ask them that you have to start to move from developers to a utility-scale managed company,” he added. Aliyu noted that the REA now works with more than 150 renewable energy service companies, some of which already manage portfolios of about 30 megawatts and are expanding beyond Nigeria.
Data-driven planning and economic impact
Aliyu emphasised that the reforms were supported by a broad planning and data strategy designed to target communities and productive-use assets precisely. The agency has mapped more than 700,000 communities nationwide, alongside 51,022 hospitals, 11,129 markets, 170 schools, 7,979 factories, 407 functioning mini-grids, 57 dams, and 2,194 feeders across distribution company networks.
This data-driven approach determines the least-cost way of electrifying each location, whether through solar home systems, isolated or interconnected mini-grids, or grid extension. Aliyu linked electricity access to wider economic growth, arguing that inadequate power supply has contributed to the decline of manufacturing in parts of the country, noting a drop from 250 to 300 factories in the southwestern and northwestern regions during the 1980s to just 40 to 70 functioning factories today.
Scaling domestic manufacturing and universal access
Beyond access, Aliyu stated that the REA is preparing Nigeria for a future where electricity demand will surge due to population growth, the electrification of everything, and the energy needs of artificial intelligence and data centres.
Furthermore, the agency is working to expand local solar manufacturing, with the country expected to hit 3.7 gigawatts of manufacturing capacity by the end of next year. Some Nigerian photovoltaic panel manufacturers have already begun exporting to Ghana, supporting the long-term goal of reducing import dependence and building a stronger domestic value chain.
The agency maintained that the mini-grid programme and broader electrification strategy are central to Nigeria’s goal of achieving universal electricity access by 2060. In his remarks, William Gboney, leader of the ZURA delegation and a World Bank consultant at ZURA, stated that the visit aimed to facilitate knowledge exchange on system dispatch, grid stability management, balancing operations, and coordination mechanisms in Nigeria.
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Facts Only
* Abba Aliyu, managing director of the Rural Electrification Agency (REA), noted a structural transition in Nigeria’s off-grid electricity sector.
* The shift involved moving from small-scale pilot projects to a bankable, utility-style market following NERC regulatory interventions.
* The transition enabled the construction of 48 interconnected mini-grid sites across 19 states spanning 10 electricity distribution companies (DisCos).
* The programme involves 252,505 new and improved electricity connections, 213.3 megawatts-peak of solar photovoltaic capacity, 166.1 megawatt-hours of storage, and 82.5 megawatts of peak load when completed.
* Mini-grid regulations were changed to allow for interconnected systems up to 10 megawatts and isolated systems up to 5 megawatts.
* The market has shifted from contractor-led activities to one driven by developers and utility-scale operators.
* The REA works with over 150 renewable energy service companies, some managing portfolios of about 30 megawatts.
* The REA has mapped over 700,000 communities, 51,022 hospitals, 11,129 markets, 170 schools, 7,979 factories, 407 functioning mini-grids, 57 dams, and 2,194 feeders.
* The country is expected to reach 3.7 gigawatts of solar manufacturing capacity by the end of next year.
Executive Summary
The shift in Nigeria’s off-grid electricity sector is driven by regulatory changes from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), which transitioned the market from small-scale pilots to a utility-style framework. This transition facilitated a unified programme for constructing 48 interconnected mini-grid sites across 19 states, involving 10 distribution companies. These projects are intended to deliver significant capacity, including new electricity connections, solar photovoltaic capacity, energy storage, and peak load management.
The regulatory evolution allowed for expansion of mini-grid caps, moving from a one-megawatt limit to allowing up to 10 megawatts interconnected and 5 megawatts isolated systems. This change has also restructured the market dynamics, shifting the focus from contractor-led activities toward developer-driven utility-scale operations. The Rural Electrification Agency (REA) supports this through data-driven planning, mapping communities alongside infrastructure assets, to determine the most cost-effective electrification strategies. Furthermore, there is an effort to scale domestic solar manufacturing capacity and achieve universal access by 2060.
Full Take
The narrative describes a top-down infrastructural reorientation—a deliberate process of regulatory capture and data mapping used to transition an informal energy sector into a formalized, utility-style market. The pattern involves using technical metrics (megawatts, storage) and spatial data (community mapping) to create a framework that logically necessitates specific economic outcomes (reduced manufacturing decline, expanded access). The core tension lies between the stated goal of universal access by 2060 and the immediate demands of scaling private developer ecosystems.
The emphasis on moving contractors to developers suggests a systemic push to internalize risk and control asset management within the domestic ecosystem, moving away from external dependency. This approach inherently positions the state agency (REA) as the necessary central planner capable of enforcing a unified standard across disparate entities. The implication is that true economic growth and universal access are contingent not just on physical infrastructure build-out but on the successful imposition of standardized regulatory and ownership structures that prioritize utility management over pure contract execution.
What is unstated is the cost distribution for this transition—specifically, who bears the financial burden associated with implementing the data-driven planning strategy versus who captures the resulting value from the new developer-led market structure. What follow-up research would illuminate whether this shift truly benefits marginalized communities or merely optimizes infrastructure deployment for existing economic nodes?
Sentinel — Human
This text exhibits high coherence and specific, attributed details, strongly suggesting it is derived from direct engagement or careful summarization of official statements by named experts rather than pure generative synthesis.