This year’s extended peak season is continuing, with a final bump expected this month that could push September just over the line to be the busiest month of the year for import volume at the nation’s major container ports, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“We thought the peak season would be mostly behind us by now, but that’s not the case,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Some of the shift from earlier in the summer to now is because of vessel delays due to bad weather in China and some rerouting away from the Panama Canal amid potential drought conditions there. But consumers keep buying despite tariffs, inflation, and high fuel prices, and retailers keep bringing in merchandise to meet demand.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in July, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was down 3.9% from a year earlier but up 3.2% from June.
Ports have not yet reported August numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.29 million TEU, down 1.3% year over year. September is forecast at 2.31 million TEU, up 9.6% year over year and slightly ahead of July as the busiest month of the year.
As recently as last month, it appeared that May’s 2.24 million TEU would be the busiest month of 2026 as retailers brought in merchandise early ahead of potential increases in tariffs. But high import levels continued, stretching out the peak season to its traditional timing of late summer and early fall.
The Global Port Tracker report, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
Facts Only
* U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.3 million TEU in July.
* July volume was down 3.9% from a year earlier but up 3.2% from June.
* Global Port Tracker projected August at 2.29 million TEU, a 1.3% decrease year over year.
* September is forecast at 2.31 million TEU, up 9.6% year over year and slightly ahead of July as the busiest month of the year.
* Vessel delays were attributed to bad weather in China and rerouting around the Panama Canal due to potential drought conditions.
* Consumers continue buying despite tariffs, inflation, and high fuel prices.
* Retailers continue bringing in merchandise to meet demand.
* The Global Port Tracker covers ports on the West Coast (Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville; and Houston) and the Gulf Coast.
Executive Summary
The extended peak season is continuing, with a final expected bump this month potentially making September the busiest month for import volume at major container ports. This situation is complicated by vessel delays resulting from bad weather in China and rerouting around the Panama Canal due to potential drought conditions. Despite these logistical pressures, consumers continue purchasing, and retailers maintain merchandise flow to meet demand amidst high inflation and fuel prices.
Data from July shows that U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). This volume was a decrease of 3.9% compared to the previous year but an increase of 3.2% compared to June. Projections indicate that August is forecast at 2.29 million TEU, a 1.3% decrease year over year. September is forecasted at 2.31 million TEU, marking a 9.6% increase year over year and slightly ahead of July as the busiest month of the year. Historical context suggests that while May was previously considered the peak month in 2026 due to earlier merchandise arrivals, high import levels have extended the peak season to the traditional late summer and early fall timing.
Full Take
The data reveals a tension between logistical friction and persistent consumer demand, suggesting that macro-economic pressures (inflation, fuel costs) do not fully suppress import flows. The shift in peak season timing—from an earlier period speculated for 2026 to the current late summer/early fall—indicates that supply chain volatility is overriding planned inventory scheduling. The context of vessel delays and canal rerouting demonstrates how geopolitical and environmental factors introduce unpredictable variables into established shipping timelines, creating a dynamic where physical flow is subject to external constraints rather than purely economic drivers. The pattern suggests that while retail appetite remains robust, the ability of goods to reach ports is increasingly dictated by non-economic bottlenecks. This raises the question of whether sustained consumer behavior can absorb intermittent supply shocks without significant inflationary feedback loops, and what secondary costs are being incurred by retailers adjusting inventory strategies in response to these fluctuating port capacities.
Bridge Questions: If logistics bottlenecks remain as volatile, what structural adjustments are necessary for global trade infrastructure to decouple volume from weather-related delays? How do the current consumer purchasing patterns react when faced with sustained volatility rather than predictable cost increases? What is the long-term impact of this shift in peak season timing on annual retail planning cycles across different economic regimes?