Weekly summary: Dow and Nasdaq in correction, bond yields up, $WTIC settles near $100.
Friday Recap
- Dow drops 916 and enters correction
- Nasdaq falls 460 after correction
- S&P 5th straight losing week
- 3–year long bond yield on verge of busting 5.0 percent
- Oil closes highest level since 2022, topped $100, settled just below
- Gasoline prices up $1 from a month ago.
- House GOP rejects Senate DHS Bill
- Strait of Hormuz still closed -Tomorrow = 1 month since Iran War began
Meanwhile
Golden Age Is Upon Us
Cuba Is Next
Important Announcement
Trump Top 10 Statements Yesterday
- We will not negotiate. Of course they’re negotiating, [Mish: How is that logically possible?] Who wouldn’t negotiate?
- Now, before this started, the Dow hit 50,000. The S&P hit 7,000. Both of those achievements were not achievable. [Mish: Now that’s an amusing revelation]
- We’re building an arc, a triumphal arc, which will be incredible for the city, incredible.
- We love the farmers. We gave them $12 billion and they’re extremely happy.
- See, I’m a gold person. It’s all real stuff. You can’t imitate it. Someday, they’ll discover a paint that will look like gold and the guy’s going to be the richest man in the world.
- I love the government like I love myself economically.
- He was shocked, the head of Sharpie gets a call. So, for $5 — it could be zero — but for $5 I get a much better pen than for $1,000. And I can hand them out and actually they become hot as a pistol.
- You know, I settled eight wars, and many of them, I think were more difficult than this one.
- I mean, I read a story today that I’m desperate to make a deal. I’m not — I don’t — if I was desperate, he’d be the first to know.
- We have done an amazing job. I had to do a little stopover; I call it an excursion.
Yes, those statements were all made in a single day, yesterday.
Here’s a bonus eleventh.
“And my predictions have been right. Trump was right about everything.”
For discussion of the above comments, please see What Happened at Trump’s Insane Iran War Cabinet Meeting Yesterday?
no worries. Gavin is in the wings to destroy what’s left of us.
By the time Trump and his gang of child diddlers is done there will be nothing left to destroy.
Is this winning? We end the war and the US admin is worried that Iran will have installed the Tehran toll-booth on the Strait.
Isn’t this a direct admission of US impotence on one of the key issues that this war was supposedly about?
Now, an even more pissed off Iran with a hand on the throat of the economy…
Is he calling for even more war???
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday warned European allies that Iran could set up a “tolling system” in the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran ends…
“I did describe to our allies, however, that immediately after this thing ends, and we’re done with our objectives, the immediate challenge we’re going to face is an Iran that may decide that they want to set up a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz ,” he said. “Not only is this illegal, it’s unacceptable, it’s dangerous for the world. And it’s important that the world have a plan to confront it.”
PapaDave or anyone else who knows, how would the Houthis closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait affect the world economy?
Do you think logistically they would be able to keep it closed?
How many ships were needed to be hit in the Gulf to “shut down” shipping in the Gulf?
Not very many
Minimal targeting results in big impact
Shipping is still way lower in the Red Sea than before the previous Houthi attack on 4, yes only 4 ships last year
So yes, easy to effectively close it down with minimal attacks and no outreach from Iran or Houthi’s for resuming right of transit
1. longer and more expensive shipping lanes.
2. Yes. we went to war with them for 2 months just last year and had to walk away with an indecisive outcome. the Houtis dont need to sink every ship that passes thru the Strait, the threat will be enough to divert shipping.
you see, right about now is when Trump usually declares bankruptcy .
George Carlin said it long ago. There is no need for a formal conspiracy. All these corporate executives that have BOUGHT congress have the same objectives. There is no need for them to get together, they came from the same “elite” universities, belong to the same fraternities/sororities, serve on the same boards and have the same objectives. The concentration of wealth and real assets continues, and will continue unabated. Hedge accordingly.
“Thunder Rock is across the street from the Dwight-Englewood School, a fancy private academy whose graduates include celebrity chef Anthony Bourdain, actress Brooke Shields, and former secretary of state George Schultz. Mehmet Öz, the Turkish-American celebrity doctor known professionally as Dr Oz, who currently running for US Senate, also sent his children there.”
https://www.jordannews.jo/Section-121/Travel/Gaddafi-s-New-Jersey-mansion-18424
Get a load of some of the names in the article…wowza
To wit:
“Gaddafi’s entourage ended up renting a much bigger estate in Westchester County, across the Hudson River from Englewood. (Hillary Clinton lives in the same county.) News crews gawked as workers unfurled a huge tent decorated with camels and palm trees. Just as in Englewood, local authorities ordered the Libyan delegation to stop the construction work.
Authorities also appealed to the owner of the property: real estate mogul Donald J. Trump.”
From another blog.
When Donald Trump speaks of a “10-day pause” before any strike on Iran’s infrastructure, he is not merely putting a number on the calendar. In the logic of war, time can matter as much as firepower. Properly understood, these 10 days are neither a clear sign of peace nor necessarily evidence of retreat. They look more like a deliberate pause—one that may serve simultaneously to reorganise the battlefield, shape the narrative, and perhaps prepare a less costly exit from a war that has not unfolded the way Washington had hoped.
On the surface, invoking negotiations always carries the appearance of restraint. Even when there is no serious intent to reach an agreement, merely placing “diplomacy” on the table serves an important purpose for Washington: it creates the impression that the diplomatic option was tried.
This is a familiar pattern in U.S. foreign policy. Negotiations are not always pursued to secure a deal; sometimes they are meant to ensure that if the next blow is struck, no one can say there was another path left unexplored. In that sense, the 10-day window may be less a genuine opening for talks than a political shield before the next move—a way to reduce the international cost of military action.
These 10 days could serve several military purposes at once:
assessing the actual level of damage inflicted and identifying which targets may require a second strike;
repositioning naval and air assets involved in the campaign;
moving equipment and closing operational gaps;
and re-coordinating with allied or proxy forces
These 10 days should also be read through the lens of the U.S.-Israel relationship. On the surface, both are in the same camp. In practice, however, they do not always fight according to the same logic.
Israel typically seeks rapid, hard, and maximalist blows; the United States, by contrast, must think beyond the battlefield: energy markets, domestic political costs, potential casualties, regional spillover, and the risk of being dragged into a prolonged war.
That is why any pause is not necessarily only a message to Iran; at times, it is also a message to Tel Aviv.
A message suggesting that Washington may no longer be willing to absorb unlimited costs for a war whose returns, for itself, are increasingly unclear.
If that reading is correct, then this pause is not just the space between two strikes. It may also signal that the U.S. and Israel are no longer standing at exactly the same point in this war.
These 10 days also matter inside the United States:
the media is given time to absorb and reproduce the preferred framing;
the Republican political base has space to align itself behind any coming decision;
opponents are allowed to exhaust the initial burst of reaction;
and the White House gains time to package whatever comes next in a more disciplined form.
In other words, this pause is not only for the outside world.Part of it is for managing the domestic front—so that if a strike is coming, the language that justifies it is already in place.
In the end, Trump’s 10-day pause should not be read simplistically. It is neither necessarily a sign of retreat nor, by itself, evidence that the crisis is winding down. More plausibly, it is a multi-purpose pause:
one designed to build political legitimacy, reset military positioning, manage fractures inside the alliance, shape public perception, and perhaps most importantly, prepare an “exit without openly admitting defeat.”
And that is precisely why the number 10 matters: not as a deadline, but as part of the operation itself.
–WANA
Iran understands all this, so it will not stop striking Israel, the US assets in the Middle East. Hezbollah is continuing attacking Israel, and it is Israel retreating. The Houthis just joined the exercise.
…from another blog.
Mish, I first tried posting the link alone, in a separate comment. That comment system bans the source. Does the system shadowban it or does the system display it in your queue for moderation?
10 days…
what if is his senile old mind thinking that within 10 days somehow this (boring) war falls out of the news and somehow resolves itself and he can move back to his usual attention-seeking BS
meanwhile the economy is being driven further into the rocks and the military geniuses are escalating attacks without considering responses
In 10 more days the economy will have broken
and poor ol Donald will still be bored
Israel is running low on its best missile interceptors
https://www.wsj.com/world/israel-is-rationing-its-best-interceptorsand-irans-missiles-are-getting-through-130cf14d?mod=livecoverage_web
For 10 days he may be reconsolidating his positions in the markets…
Wait….just wait….until the goyim begin opening their March 2026
401K201K statements.Wait til they see their 9/30/26 statements.
Those 10 statements should be put on Trump’s triumphal arch. On the bright side, Americans finally get a sense of what life must be like in North Korea.
Imagine you’re in a private school where your Dad paid for your grades by paying for the football stadium, and you’re 6’3″ and you claim you’re endowed, and every time you pick on a nerd, you get the holy shit kicked out of you. And somehow 39% of the teachers still think you’re great.
The Next Financial Shock to Come From Trump’s War With IranAmerica’s current credit rating masks a fatal contradiction, and a downgrade is the only honest assessment of an empire in decline.
https://newrepublic.com/article/208170/trump-war-iran-credit-rating
Good article.
“AA ratings banking on the assumption that American military power will guarantee both global economic stability and the dollar hegemony required for the United States to service its debts, in perpetuity”
Well that illusion is certainly falling to pieces really fast. Satanyahu certainly doing a fantastic job for his dark Astral lords
So we reached $100 oil. With the energy / Oil issues, that’s pretty cheap I would say. Heck it was $119.50 just a few weeks ago, and nary a word… Oh, we “considered steps” to ease concerns. That was it, and here we are down to $100. Hmm… let’s not get all hyperbolic over a significant drop, but also let’s not fret about cheaper oil today, then it was only weeks ago!!!
Don’t even get me started on stocks, which have been in a seesaw level for a long time now. With Inflation an issue, and lots more going on, it’s a given right now that they will fluctuate up and down and in big percentages at times.
Look at Gold, Silver, etc. it’s all a giant mess, and they both and others will come crashing down soon enough as well. Everything is going down before it eventually goes back up. It’s normal behavior, reacting to disrupted markets, tight money, and a BS Media, hair on fire reporting to hurt the opposing party…
This IS after all, the game we call life!!!
You may be confusing Brent crude at $119, vs WTI crude which just hit $100
That, and around 10,000 other confused things.
10K, really…
WTI actually went that high for a moment and was then beat down.
High 80’s I believe.
They generally track around the same, except in disruptive times like at the moment. So you are correct, my bad.
They were both expected to be around $55 – $60 in 2026 for a benchmark, according to initial forecast. If disruptive times persist it could stay more lopsided as you point out, my guess is that won’t happen, and this will all get resolved one way or another, as too many Countries are going to be affected at some point.
You are not a smart man
I guess it depends… About what? I am brilliant in some areas, and got paid very well and retired early as a result. I suck at dancing, hockey, and many others. I am an excellent golfer! Great at Football, and was a U.S. Ranked Foosball Player in my 20’s. Pretty good driver, and love to walk too. Hated Trigonometry, but got an A+ in Algebra, so go figure…
What are you good or great at, and you must suck at something if you’re human? Just curious…
Stu, Thats normalcy bias. Oil and gas price increases have been constrained by releases from multiple countries’ strategic reserves and by the amount of fuel that’s been en route across the seas. Global gas production in particular has already been reduced for years by 20% with strikes on Iran and Qatar. Similar long term reductions exist in hydrogen, sulfuric acid and urea. These affect chip manufacturing and agriculture worldwide. China and Russia have already implemented temporary export bans on fertilizer products.
Look at Gold, Silver, etc. it’s all a giant mess, and they both and others will come crashing down soon enough as well.
====
what crushing, what mess, moron?
gold trade as start of 2026 4500*4600, after growing gods knows what in 2026
just pull up 2*5 years gold chart, or better USA debt chart
you are something of moron who can;t open simple chart?
=======
do not you moron understand simple fact that USA gov in 2026 is going to collect $5 trl in taxes, and PRINT $3 -3.5 TRLN MORE?
jesus!!
I follow gold very closely and my observation and prediction, is that a massive crash (2,500?) is coming. Too much profit sitting there, and as a result it will be taken in large chunks, and it will appear to occur all at once. The only way for many to pull large profit out, without losing a chunk of it. This is and will again, be coordinated, as it continues to be since the peg was removed. Keep watching as it’s coming soon (May/June?). Let me know when I’m right, or wrong…
Global markets have lost 11.5 trillion in market cap since Israel and the US launched a war against Iran. I would say that Iran is winning the war. In contrast Pedophilia raised the DOW to over 50,000. What a sick equities market the US is endowed with.
Inflation raised the Dow to 50,000
Are Americans proud of this?
This one is not! I am appalled by this schoolyard bully that the far right Republicans enabled to destroy our nations credibility, finances and position as benevolent leader of the free world.
Yes, just under 40%. Appaling.
Iran is just getting started. They weathered the first storm. Missiles incoming to Saudi Arabia and Israel from Yemen. The window for the US to exit isnt here yet. It is gonna be a quagmire until June. Expect US soldiers to get paraded on middle Eastern TV. Trump may well launch a nuclear weapon at Iran but I would expect Russia to shoot one as well.
Yeah, I hear that we wiped out 90% of their missiles, and somehow they still have 70% remaining
“Wait! You haven’t seen my final form”
This isnt anime. If Iran had anything to start it would have started before all their leaders were killed and bases destroyed (and US reinforcements arrived), not after.
it didn’t turn out as fun and exciting as he thought…
“[Trump] is getting a little bored with Iran,” the official said. “Not that he regrets it or something — he’s just bored and wants to move on.”
A second White House official who was granted anonymity for the same reason said that Trump has begun to “move on” from the conflict and has started shifting conversations and personal focus toward the economy, domestic issues and the upcoming midterm elections.
The White House’s public communications have suggested a similar detachment, presenting the conflict less as an ongoing war with human lives at stake and more as a cultural moment that generates online content.
By this Trump has revealed his pathological need to be the constant center of attention via a blizzard of bullshit…
which led to the biggest “look at me” which is a real war started randomly by him with real missiles and real explosions and real dead people…
…and it’s bugging him because it drowns out his next attention-getting spurt of BS…
…it’s so boring,…
…and really, how do you top the destruction of the US reputation and the knee-capping of the world economy?
Especially, US’ Gulf Allies have paid a heavy price.The World too by way of supply side problems
Worked for a guy like trump one time. Hard to put into words. Its a technique to keep the incompetent graft going Were so caught up in the day to day ( can you believe this) that we fail to notice to things we would normally be concerned with.
Say the doge bro running off with all the ss info of every American.
Being a bully isn’t nearly as much fun when your victim fights back.
Satanyahu won’t let Trump get bored with Iran.
Breaking: Qatar announces it is “withdrawing” from the war. Is that code for making nice with Iran?
By the time Trump leaves office, the entire middle east may become an Islamic Republic with nuclear weapons.
https://www.reddit.com/r/DeepMarketScan/comments/1s5h12y/breaking_qatar_withdraws_from_the_war_iran_has
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
Israel would have to start playing nice.
=atar announces it is “withdrawing” from the war.
they never were in war
it is 10.000 sq km size , and 3 mil people COUNTRY
half of from india/etc who actually WORKS..
IT IS JOKE. TRIBE LIKE COUNTRY
Thats the problem. When gb colonized the region they did not divide the region by religion or culture. Probably to keep them from uniting and rising up.
Forget the Islamic Republic.Global economy and trade are already shattered to the extent Gulf Nations have started selling their Gold.
Pam Bondi called the market top during the Epstein hearings.
Does a lower DOW allow the Epstein victims to seek justice?
We need to redo those Dos Equis commercials for “the most ignorant man in the world”.
The US, along with the DAX, CAC40, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and India’s Nifty50 are trading below their 200 day moving averages. The London FTSE is not too far behind since it testing its 200 DMA.
The Nikkei is about half way to its 200 DMA, but don’t let that fool you. It has been in a hockey stick motive wave since the end of 2008, with wave 5 of Wave 5 extending. The French CAC40 is also in a bad technical situation, which completed an ending diagonal that started from the depths of the COVID selloff. Both these patterns are typically followed by a sudden reversal, retracing about 90% of the advance. In other words: CRASH!
I don’t see how one major index, let alone TWO, crash without taking the rest of the markets with them.
The damage to oil infrastructure is a done deal. Even if all hostilities, bombing and destruction stopped right now, the damage is done and it will take YEARS to fix so expect high oil prices for a long time (as in years).
High energy prices = broke people. Throw in labor constraints, stupid tariffs, and other Trump nonsense and it’s a miracle stocks haven’t crashed further yet but they will.
And even US’ allies will not trust US weapons,from now on.
Not to mention that marine insurance will not instantly reprice, nor go back to pre-war prices.
Insurance for transit through the Red Sea has never returned to pre-2023 prices.
“I hang out with losers because it makes me feel better. I hate guys that are very, very successful and you have to listen to their success stories. I like people that like to listen to my success.” – Donald J Trumpstien
Top men.
One of my favorite videos: yanking off 2 dudes at one time!!! It’s the right song and everything! I’ll take dyslexia over narcissitic dementia anytime…
Back in 1977, President Jimmy Carter rose in the banquet hall of Tehran’s Palace to toast the deep bonds between the U.S. and Iran. But after this celebration the U.S. became hostile and has now managed to successfully push Iran into deep bonds with Russia and mighty China. America is surely reaping what it sowed.
You might read up on the Iran Hostage Crisis.
You might want to read what the CIA did in Iran before the hostage crisis? CIA only admitted in 2023 that they installed the Shah who was a brutal dictator loyal to America instead of Irainians? https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/in-first-cia-acknowledges-1953-coup-it-backed-to-overthrow-leader-of-iran-was-undemocratic
You might read up on the entire sorry hostory of US intervention in Iran, but facts are of course out of bounds for most Americans
You might want to read up on every American ‘expedition’ post WW2 where the hand of the CIA was involved, and probably us too.
Yes, the 1953 coup in Iran was jointly engineered by the CIA and British Intelligence
I don’t think Carter wanted to take the Shaw but his advisors convinced him to let him in for cancer treatment.
“There are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests”
China–Iran relations refer to the bilateral relations between the People’s Republic of China and Iran. The relationship between the two civilizations is one of the oldest continuous contacts in history, stretching back more than 2,500 years.
Iran Just Hacked the FBI Director’s Emailhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlM0vylK_r8
I’m going to be a no good dirty bear until all four of the economic horsemen have shown up and done significant damage. 1. The Iran war and the resulting energy pinch. 2. Private Credit unwind. 3. The AI bubble unwind. 4. Housing, which is still 25-40% too expensive to “pencil” for anyone. I am not sure where commercial real estate falls into that list, but we’ve been hearing about that one for years now and nothing ever materialized.
Let’s see. Wasn’t it Obama that said Joe Biden was on the wrong side of every international decision. Eerie, how history is repeating itself with Trump! Biden must be feeling pretty good by now!
President Donald Trump made a wildly condescending admission about the sort of people he likes to surround himself with during an event in Miami shortly after the signing of his executive order to move money around to pay Transportation Security Administration officials in the absence of a congressional deal to reopen the Department of Homeland Security.
“I hang out with losers because it makes me feel better,” said Trump. “I hate guys that are very, very successful and you have to listen to their success stories. I like people that like to listen to my success.”
Maybe that is why he has a weird obsession with Obama. Obama care trump rx / peace prize obsession. Take the iran nuclear deal. By all accounts they were following the rules. And he ripped it up only to sign basically the same agreement.
Hopefully, sooner than later, this too shall pass. Unfortunately, a great deal of lasting damage has already been done.
Can the USA or the world survive another 3 months of Trump, never mind another 3 years?
I’d say probably not
One of these days the Republicans in congress are gonna wake up and roll this guy outta office either by impeachment or the 25th amendment
Only if gasoline goes up by another $3.50 a gallon. Which it will before the election. Then the democrat-run House will impeach. 25th is a real difficult way to remove.
Well, the 25th is possible if the Cabinet is not nuts and only the President is. But here, it looks like everyone in the Cabinet is nuts as well – maybe to a somewhat lesser degree, but definitely crazy.
Ultimately the 25th requires 2/3 majorities in both houses to agree – or the president (Trump) returns to power. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_4:_Declaration_by_vice_president_and_cabinet_members_of_president's_inability
Nah they are just gonna push the election fraud / gerrymander thing. Those that survive will say they did not agree with him. Most r voters will vote for what we have now over a dirty dem any day.
I would never wish this on anyone, but if someone was to pass away peacefully in their sleep, it may be the best thing that could happen for all of us.
“I have never wished a man dead, but I have read some obituaries with great pleasure.”
He left the world in a better state than he found it. NOT.
So far Nostradamus nor the Simpsons have come through yet…
Sweet Bastet’s tail…
I think he’s quite demented. Hegseth has no excuse. He and Miss Lindsey are just bloodthirsty.
Neocons in quagmire.
Its quite nice to watch.
They don’t know what to do.
They don’t know what to say except hysterically mumbling we have won, we have won. They are begging for negotiation.
Haha.
If you are someone who absolutely hates this country and wants to see it destroyed and in ruins, the Chief Pedophile of the United States is your man.
The upcoming economic crash will be brought to you by Trump and the GOP. Remember that at the midterms folks.
If only we had all listened: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRndMiVIB-w
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
And Mish, we need a musical tribute on Fridays, please. It might earn you a Mishelin award 😉
No lie detected
The US had a scorching economy before the republicans guaranteed they would “fix” the economy.
We just didn’t understand what they meant.
They ‘fixed’ it alright, sadly not just in the USA, they spread the love worldwide.
This jackass is going to be ridiculed for decades after this.
I’ve disagreed with you over Russia, but I wish you guys well in the coming trying times. The UK has given the world many good things. Trump has really lit the world on fire with this war. The ramifications have not yet been comprehended by most Americans.
But, but, but he has the arch of victory coming.
And the Golden Ballroom.
Where he can sit on the floor like a spoiled toddler in diapers ~ playing with a loaded machine gun…
Assume he is arranging for a McDonald’s to be put in the Ballroom?
Biden’s’ economy was all government stimulus, AI/housing bubbles AND the stimulation that comes from unbridled illegal immigration. Not defending traitor Trump, but let’s be real!
I thought illegals depressed the economy by putting citizens out of work and soaking up all kinds of services?
Well you thought wrong. They depress middle class wages, absolutely, but because they work hard and consume a lot and/or receive so many benefits from Uncle Sam via printed dollars, their net effect to the economy is definitely stimulative.
please!!
half of time for last 30*40 years
repubs HAD MAJORITY IN LOWER house and-or senate
THEY DID NOTHING , !
same budget, ,same deficit, same policies
Probably unwise to argue with a caveman.
it is ok in distance.
of course in person he might have huge stick :)))
alx
Complex issue. They also support the economy buying goods and services which are taxed. They also work for lower wages which keep the cost of goods and services down.
If you have to blame anyone i would blame employers who hire illegals and pocket the profits from not paying taxes etc.
they privatize the profits then pass the expense of enforcement and support onto the public ie government.
I am probably one the few people on this site who has lost a job to an immigrant( for lack of a better description ). It took a good Christian businessman talking to his good republican congressman to pull strings to get hb2 visas in a time when congress was restricting them. For whatever reason.
=Biden’s’ economy was all government stimulus, AI
bs.
blue/red/ repubs/dems
RIGHT NOW TRUMp runs 2.8 trln gov deficit..
it is highest outside covid (= during again trump)
alx