Open to All Readers
By Scott Hamilton
July 18, 2026, © Leeham News—Farnborough, England: Embraer, the third largest commercial airplane manufacturer in the world, forecasts demand for 8,500 jets in the below 150 market through 2045.
The most commonly recognized aircraft in this sector are Embraer’s E-Jets and Mitsubishi’s CRJ jets. Only Embraer is currently producing jets in this market: the E175-E1, E190-E2 and E195-E2.
However, there are thousands of older generation E-Jets and CRJs that are aging and facing retirement. Hundreds of Airbus A319ceos and Boeing 737-700s also fall within this sector, as do a handful of Airbus A318s and Boeing 737-600s.
North America is the largest sector by unit number, but only barely squeezing out over China and Asia.
Embraer released its 20-year forecast on the eve of the 2026 Farnborough Air Show.
Embraer sees a compounded annual growth rate of 3.7% through 2045. China will lead with a rate of 5.2% annually. The Middle East follows with a rate of 4.6%. Africa (4.4%), Latin America (4.3%), Asia Pacific (4.1%), Europe (2.7%, including CIS), and North America (2.0%) round out the projected growth rates.
“The efficiency of new-generation small narrowbodies will drive a trend to more mixed-aircraft fleets,” Embraer says. “Fleets with different-sized aircraft better support expansion into new and emerging markets, traffic patterns that favor short-haul over long-haul, and an increasing need for scheduling flexibility and operating efficiency. Small narrowbodies also support the aviation industry’s pursuit of lower aircraft emissions.”
The Brazilian manufacturer sees increasing fragmentation of the global markets: fragmentation into regional economic blocs; fragmenting tourism flows; and fragmented service experiences.
“Together, these forces are reshaping the geography of demand and giving rise to a new cycle of air transportation growth—one characterized by stronger regional connectivity, a broader network of destinations, and more diversified passenger flows,” Embraer writes in its forecast.
Shifting how profit is measured
The airline industry historically viewed seating configurations and resulting profits on a cost per available seat mile (CASM) basis. Embraer observes instead that there is a “structural shift to premiumization: the industry is moving away from the traditional CASM focus to prioritizing profit-per-square-foot. This shift is fueled by airfares and lucrative revenue-generating loyalty programs and co-branded credit cards.”
Right-sizing airplanes
Embraer has long marketed its E-Jets for “right-sizing.” This means that airlines should tailor their fleets with airplanes correctly sized for markets rather than fly larger aircraft in smaller markets.
“The reality is that there is a finite number of trunk routes capable of sustainably supporting large narrowbodies,” Embraer writes. “Forcing 200-seaters into these markets inevitably leads to overcapacity, fierce fare wars, and unnecessary yield degradation. Conversely, the number of low-to-mid density markets across North America is vastly larger (~82% of all domestic Origin-Destination pairs) and remains underserved with fewer than 60% of those accessed exclusively through connecting flights.
“This is where small narrowbodies are ideal for future growth.”
The full market forecast may be found here.
It’s not so much the capacity as much as the range that baffles me,Ryanair average stage length is 666 NM
do the commercial aircraft companies forecasters even consider the costs (labor and fuel) of “mobility” in their future fleet growth projections. Will the global flying public find alternative transportation modes or choose not to travel?
As the CEO Delta keeps bragging about not lowering airfare even when fuel prices drop because they are focused on the “premium” airfare (upper part K-shaped economy), is that a sustainable business model? especially globally?
As an example, I just booked my flight to Seattle for next June (Alaska Cruise) from the east coast. Economy class with emergency row seating…American Airline $870 RT, Delta for the same days, time and seat) $1,300 RT That said, the choice was American
One factor is a combination of Turn Around Times and Fuel.
The longer rage birds carry excess fuel and do not have to fuel at destination.
Maybe fly the whole day or refuel once at a spec location. Rather than multi times holding up each portion when you can do it once and done.
US of course has the scope issue. 2027 is coming on fast and we will see if GE gets a pass on its old CF engines they claim pass emissions.
If Embraer analysis is correct then the future is very bright for the smaller A220, not a stretched version.
Depends on how they define 150 seats.
Business, economy plus and economy, Delta airlines A220-300 is only 130 seats. A stretched A220 will still be say 150 seats
It think the Embraers proved superior around 100-120 seats and A220 around 130-145 seats.
There’s overlap but the A220-100’s backlog is a much smaller than A220-300s and 195-E2’s backlogs.
The 737-7 (only SW?) and A319NEO also seem niche aircraft compared to bigger versions.
If I were Embraer I would develop a E175 successor that meets scoope clause restriction. Maybe GE can develop a more efficient CF34-8 replacement.
A E175 with same length and improved jet engines isnt going to happen.
The airline pilots union has already offered a clean scope clause change to the weight for the longer heavier engined E175-E2
However the airlines want to add the weight change to the other (forgotten) scope clause numbers- that of the actual flying fleet size, to their advantage.
GE claims the CF34 current mfg with its over the years upgrades meets the spec.
Note its not a new engine, an old engine if it meets the specs is fine.
Oddly it does not on the 767. Different frame engine but ????????
We will only know when things hit the fan or not.
Clearly its why advance buys of the E175 took place. Same mo as all emissions levels for trucks, buy current so you do not have to veal with a mod.
GE is playing games on info, they KNOW if it meets it or not and I do not trust them any further than I can throw the Empire State building.
Don’t forget about Comac C909!
Comac C909 has 386 order backlog (not including pending 770 options and MOUs while Embraer E Series 509 aircraft
Google AI
The Comac C909 regional jet (formerly known as the ARJ21) has achieved solid market penetration since entering commercial service.
Deliveries: More than 186 aircraft have been delivered to over 10 operators, primarily spanning Chinese carriers, TransNusa (Indonesia), Lao Airlines (Laos), and VietJet (Vietnam).Orders:
The manufacturer holds 386 outstanding confirmed and intended orders for the C909, with pending orders reported as high as 770 when including recent options and memoranda of understanding.
The C909 currently accounts for about 70% of China’s regional fleet and has expanded significantly into Southeast Asia, serving more than 860 domestic and international route
Google AI
Embraer’s total commercial order backlog for the E-Jets family stands at 509 aircraft, representing a value of roughly $15 billion.
The backlog is composed of three main E-Series variants:
E195-E2: 289 aircraft
E175: 185 aircraftE190-
E2: 35 aircraft
As much as I admire your enthusiasms for China stuff, its an old dated airframe with an old dated engine install that is an old date for China only going no where bit of history.
The E175 has the -9 and the 9o9 has the -10.
Is there any real difference in the two? A bit for the 10E
The C909 is based on the Chinese built DC-9’s with a durable GE CF34 engine. For them to use it to develop a “MD-80-version” with AlLi fuselage, new engine (W10) and carbon wings with better aero and range can be a cost effective way before making a new version of the C919.
“Only Embraer is currently producing jets in this (<150seat) market”???????
While that is true in the sub 100 seat market, this seemingly ignores the top selling aircraft in the 100-150 seat segment… the Airbus 220.
Nice catch Bruce. My mind was thinking of the regional sector. The A220 is more of a mainline jet. But yes, this is correct!
A220-100 is a non factor. C909 is a captive market.