Global temperature rise is set to cross 1.5°C, likely within the next few years, pushing climate risks and impacts to increasingly dangerous heights, but it is still possible to bring temperatures down and achieve global goals in the Paris Agreement, according to a new United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report. Anticipated impacts include intensified extreme weather, ecosystem loss, and submersion of Small Island Developing States and low-lying coastal cities.
The report, ‘Limiting Overshoot’, identifies an ‘overshoot, peak, and decline’ pathway as the best remaining option to minimize the magnitude and duration of this overshoot and try to return to below 1.5°C as soon as possible.
“This summer’s scorching heat, raging wildfires and deadly floods are a warning of what lies ahead. We must make the overshoot above 1.5 degrees as small and short as possible. That demands an overshoot of ambition” said UN Secretary-General Antőnio Guterres.
This pathway would minimize peak temperature rise through immediate and sustained cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, including methane, on the road to net-zero, and bring down temperatures through long-term net-negative emissions, with carefully governed Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) – the process of removing carbon from the air and storing it through afforestation or other means – an essential part of the mix.
At the same time, following this pathway would involve adaptation actions that reduce vulnerability to the current, expected and unexpected impacts of climate change on societies, communities and economies – although there will likely be limits to adaptation and irreversible impacts, especially if peak temperatures are not minimized. The report stresses such a pathway would reduce risks and impacts, make adaptation less difficult and expensive, and increase the chances of lowering temperatures.
No good outcomes above 1.5°C
“There are no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5°C. Across the globe, extreme heatwaves are already proving that climate impacts will strike faster, hit harder, and last longer - costing more lives and causing deeper disruption,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “Now is the time we must double down on climate action. We can – and must – get on the right path. By cutting greenhouse gas emissions, strengthening resilience and adaptation, and ensuring exceedance of 1.5°C is as small and short as possible.”
The most optimistic scenario will see temperature rise peak at 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, above the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C set by the Paris Agreement. Most other scenarios predict higher peaks.
Above 1.5°C, risks and impacts will intensify with every extra fraction of a degree and every year. Severe damage to human health, food security, water supplies, nature, cities, infrastructure, and economies is expected.
The report warns that the likelihood of crossing irreversible tipping points increases with the magnitude and duration of higher temperatures. These include the destabilization of major ice sheets, degradation of the Amazon rainforest and disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (the system of currents that moves warm surface water north and cold deep water south, playing a key role in regulating the climate). Some impacts may emerge abruptly, while others will accumulate over time.
Considering the scale of the risks and the co-benefits of climate interventions such as a rapid transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy – improving air quality and public health, lowering energy costs and increasing access to electricity – the report urges accelerated, collective and global action to get on an overshoot, peak and decline pathway. How quickly and strongly this action happens will define the shape and trajectory of the pathway.
Conditions for success
Strong political will and multilateralism, effective policies, inclusive governance, and finance are all important enabling conditions for action – and equity and justice must underpin all responses. Countries with greater responsibility for climate change should act the fastest with the greatest ambition.
The report also finds that mitigation and adaptation, which are mutually reinforcing, must advance together, while being responsive to emerging risks. Interventions that achieve both mitigation and adaptation goals – such as nature-based cooling – should be prioritized.
Adaptation set up now forms the foundation for efforts to come, but it must become transformational and responsive to evolving non-linear and abruptly arising risks – including those that will harm mitigation efforts.
The report emphasizes that net-zero is a milestone towards net-negative, with CDR needed in addition to, not instead of, sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, CDR can only contribute credibly to a return below 1.5°C if peak warming remains well below 2°C and all residual emissions are reduced. Strong governance frameworks for CDR will be critical to allow responsible deployment and manage implications for environmental integrity, equity, scale.
Responding to a changed future
Years of inaction mean that even if a return to below 1.5°C is secured, irreversible losses and permanently changed conditions are certain. Many communities may be forced to relocate or change livelihoods, while societies will face the challenge of re-adjustment. This raises issues of justice, power, and political legitimacy, which will require new, inclusive governance arrangements to resolve difficult issues.
This report is a reminder that an overshoot, peak and decline pathway is a next generation climate frontier, but one which cannot be left unattended to for the next generation to tackle. Immediate action is required for such a pathway to remain possible.
Facts Only
* Global temperature rise is set to cross 1.5°C likely within the next few years.
* Anticipated impacts include intensified extreme weather, ecosystem loss, and submersion of Small Island Developing States and low-lying coastal cities.
* The 'overshoot, peak, and decline' pathway is identified as the best option to minimize overshoot and return below 1.5°C.
* This pathway requires immediate and sustained cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, including methane, toward net-zero.
* Long-term net-negative emissions, utilizing Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), are essential for temperature reduction.
* Adaptation actions must occur alongside mitigation, and interventions achieving both goals should be prioritized.
* Risks and impacts will intensify with every extra fraction of a degree above 1.5°C.
* Tipping points include destabilization of major ice sheets, degradation of the Amazon rainforest, and disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
* Success requires strong political will, effective policies, inclusive governance, and finance.
* Net-zero is a milestone toward net-negative, requiring CDR alongside emissions reductions.
Executive Summary
Full Take
The narrative frames climate response not merely as a technical challenge of limiting temperature rise but as a profound test of political capacity and social justice. The proposed 'overshoot, peak, and decline' pathway introduces an ambitious temporal constraint—the necessity to accelerate overshoot while simultaneously managing irreversible risks. This implies that mitigation is insufficient on its own; the process demands simultaneous management of risk accumulation (adaptation) and the strategic deployment of carbon removal technologies under stringent governance frameworks. The implication is that failure to achieve this rapid, ambitious trajectory does not just result in higher temperatures but locks societies into irreversible losses regarding ecological stability and human security, thereby exacerbating existing issues of power and legitimacy. The focus shifts from simply managing a future climate risk to determining the justice implications of current choices regarding who bears the costs of inevitable overshoot versus who controls the necessary systemic transformations for decline.
BRIDGE QUESTIONS: What specific governance mechanisms are required to ensure that CDR deployment is equitable rather than serving as a mechanism for accumulating power? How can societies successfully navigate the tension between immediate adaptation needs and the long-term, potentially disruptive nature of mitigation pathways? What forms of inclusive governance must be established now to manage the transition away from high-emissions dependency without creating new injustices regarding relocation or livelihood changes?