Mark Leonard welcomes Jörg Lau and Jana Puglierin to discuss Germany’s deepening political crisis, the rise of the AfD and how the country’s regional elections could impact Europe’s largest democracy
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Jörg Lau, international correspondent at Die Zeit and Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin office, to explore the political turmoil in Germany ahead of an electoral autumn. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government is becoming increasingly unpopular: it faces collapsing approval ratings, growing tension within the governing coalition and mounting pressure from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
As regional elections approach, Jana argues that Germany’s traditional parties face difficult choices that could reshape the country’s political landscape, while Jörg discusses what the AfD’s rise means for Germany. A “firewall” has kept mainstream parties from cooperating with the far right in the post-war period—but Jörg reflects on the strain this is under, and whether the AfD’s first taste of regional power could transform German politics.
Together, Mark, Jörg and Jana assess the prospects for Merz’s leadership, the future of the CDU and whether Germany’s political centre can withstand such pressure. Are established parties capable of renewing themselves? What happens if the AfD makes gains at the regional level? And what would prolonged instability in Berlin mean for Europe?
This podcast episode was recorded on August 12th 2026.
Bookshelf
The Names, by Florence Knapp
The Nights Are Quiet in Tehran, by Shida Bazyar
The Invite, by Olivia Wilde
Facts Only
* Mark Leonard, Jörg Lau, and Jana Puglierin participated in a discussion.
* The discussion took place on August 12, 2026.
* Friedrich Merz is the Chancellor of Germany.
* The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a far-right political party.
* Germany is facing regional elections.
* Jörg Lau is an international correspondent at Die Zeit.
* Jana Puglierin is the head of the ECFR’s Berlin office.
* A "firewall" has historically prevented mainstream parties from cooperating with the far right.
* The governing coalition is experiencing internal tension.
* Germany is the largest democracy in Europe.
Executive Summary
Germany is experiencing a period of significant political instability characterized by declining approval ratings for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government and increasing friction within the governing coalition. This turmoil coincides with the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is exerting mounting pressure on the established political center.
As regional elections approach, the traditional parties face a critical juncture regarding their long-standing "firewall"—the policy of refusing to cooperate with the far right. There is uncertainty regarding whether the AfD's potential acquisition of regional power will fundamentally transform the national political landscape. The stability of the CDU and the ability of centrist parties to renew themselves remain open questions, with the potential for prolonged instability in Berlin to have broader implications for the European Union.
Full Take
The strongest version of this narrative is that Germany is facing a systemic crisis where the traditional post-war democratic consensus is being challenged by a populist surge, leaving the current administration fragile and the political center in a state of identity crisis.
This narrative is framed through the lens of a "political crisis," utilizing descriptors like "collapsing approval ratings" and "turmoil." However, these are presented as the premises for a discussion among experts rather than as a coordinated effort to manipulate the reader. The focus remains on the structural tension between the "firewall" and regional power shifts.
Patterns detected: none
The driving paradigm is the "stability vs. disruption" binary. It assumes that the AfD’s rise is an external pressure acting upon a stagnant center, rather than a symptom of deeper socio-economic shifts. This echoes historical patterns of democratic erosion where the "center" attempts to maintain power through exclusion (the firewall) until the cost of exclusion exceeds the cost of cooperation.
The second-order consequence of this instability is a power vacuum at the heart of Europe. If the EU's largest economy is paralyzed by domestic turmoil, its ability to lead or stabilize the continent diminishes, potentially shifting the geopolitical balance.
Who benefits from this instability? Those who seek to decentralize European power or those who profit from the volatility of the German markets.
Bridge Questions:
1. What specific policy failures are driving the shift toward the AfD, and are those failures addressable by the current centrist parties?
2. Is the "firewall" a safeguard of democracy or a barrier that prevents the integration and neutralization of populist movements?
3. How would the European Union's strategic autonomy change if Germany moved from a leadership role to a state of prolonged internal crisis?
Counterstrike Scan: A coordinated influence campaign would likely use "fear appeal" by exaggerating the AfD's inevitable victory to trigger panic or "false binaries" to force a specific policy change. The current content is a promotional summary for a discussion and does not align with these attack patterns.