China wafer prices hold steady amid divergent output plans and looming polysilicon cuts

Wafer prices for China N-type M10 and 210R wafers remained stable week-on-week at $0.149/pc and $0.153/pc, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report from October 6. Market participants indicated that prices for orders signed before the holiday were largely unchanged, although downstream buyers increased procurement to stock production material, supporting inventory destocking efforts. Current wafer inventories are estimated at approximately 25 GW.
Wafer producers exhibit divergent plans regarding output cuts for the fourth quarter, with no consensus matching reductions seen in the polysilicon market; some manufacturers plan increased output due to anticipated downstream demand. Upstream polysilicon output rose from 92,900 MT in June to an estimated 120,400 MT in September, with forecasts suggesting a monthly decrease to around 105,000 MT in October as planned cuts are offset by production restarts. One polysilicon manufacturer expects prices to move toward production-cost levels due to new regulatory requirements and anticipated output reductions.
Market dynamics suggest that some wafer manufacturers plan to increase output using lower-priced polysilicon to build inventory, expecting a gradual monthly increase of 1-2 GW through December before planned shutdowns in January 2027. Demand for smaller-format M10 wafers faces pressure due to restrictions on China-origin imports, while larger-format products may benefit from utility projects in China.

* Free-On-Board (FOB) China N-type M10 wafer prices were $0.149/pc.
* Free-On-Board (FOB) China 210R wafer prices were $0.153/pc.
* Wafer inventories are estimated at around 25 GW.
* China’s monthly polysilicon output rose from 92,900 metric tons (MT) in June to an estimated 120,400 MT in September.
* The association expects monthly polysilicon output to fall approximately 12.9% month-on-month to around 105,000 MT in October as planned production cuts are offset by restarts.
* One polysilicon manufacturer requires producers to maintain offers at no less than full production costs due to new regulatory requirements.
* Some wafer manufacturers expect output to increase gradually month-on-month by about 1-2 GW through December.
* A U.S. Department of Commerce rule restricted the stockpiling of polysilicon and derivatives ahead of Section 232 import adjustments taking effect on December 4, 2026.
* Solar imports into the U.S. before December 4, 2026, largely consisted of China-origin wafers, cells, and modules entering through circumvention channels.

The divergence in production plans between wafer producers contrasts with the more constrained trajectory for polysilicon output, which is trending toward a planned reduction despite some restarts. This dynamic suggests that cost pressures emanating from upstream material sourcing are beginning to intersect with downstream market realities and geopolitical trade restrictions. The expectation that polysilicon prices will settle near production costs, driven by regulatory pressure on manufacturers, creates an incentive for wafer makers to accelerate output using potentially cheaper inputs, which is further supported by anticipated inventory destocking.
The tension between domestic demand support in China and the emerging restriction on imports into the U.S. highlights how global supply chains are being reshaped by targeted policy actions. The focus shifting from downstream module demand to upstream material control implies that market forces will increasingly be dictated by regulatory compliance and access, rather than pure production capacity. Furthermore, the differing market responses—some producers increasing output while others prepare for planned shutdowns—demonstrate a fragmented system where incentives are pulling in different directions based on immediate versus long-term strategic concerns.
The pattern suggests an attempt to decouple upstream price signals from physical supply constraints by leveraging regulatory uncertainty and inventory management. The resulting acceleration in wafer production, if realized, acts as a mechanism to manage downstream inventory while navigating an uncertain international trade environment. The missing piece is how the market will calibrate these incremental changes against the backdrop of broader energy transition goals, and whether this short-term adjustment will create sustainable long-term supply stability or further fragmentation.