On Wednesday Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, gave a speech affirming the EU’s willingness to move toward making Canada an “associate member.” Nobody quite knows what that would mean, and it might be mostly symbolic. But it would be a kind of declaration, by both Europe and Canada, of reduced dependence on the United States. And the next day Mark Carney, Canada’s Prime Minster, strongly endorsed the idea.
Donald Trump predictably, reacted with rage, calling it a “hostile act,” threatening to cut off all trade with Europe.
And nobody cared.
Last year the EU responded to Trump’s clearly illegal tariffs not by retaliating, but by making a humiliating deal. But at this point Europe has apparently decided to stop fearing Trump.
Canada’s defiance is even more remarkable. Canada’s economy is extremely dependent on the United States both as an export market and as a supplier, while the EU has historically been a vastly less important trading partner:
So Canada has a lot to lose from trade conflict with the U.S.
Furthermore, geography does not favor a Canadian pivot toward Europe. Distance still matters a lot for world trade, especially for complex value chains like the one that links the U.S. and Canadian auto sectors. And to take some representative distances, Toronto is only 435 miles from Chicago, but 3,935 miles from Frankfurt. So one might think that Carney would be cautious about offending the man who is still president of his giant neighbor.
But foreign leaders have more or less given up trying to placate Trump.
When I try to think about the current state of Trumpism, I find myself revisiting Machiavelli’s The Prince, which is, after all, sort of a user’s manual for autocrats. Machiavelli is often cited as having said that it is better to be feared than loved, but what he actually said was somewhat more complex:
Upon this a question arises: whether it be better to be loved than feared or feared than loved? It may be answered that one should wish to be both, but, because it is difficult to unite them in one person, it is much safer to be feared than loved, when, of the two, either must be dispensed with … Nevertheless a prince ought to inspire fear in such a way that, if he does not win love, he avoids hatred.
Obviously Trump isn’t doing well on the “avoiding hatred” front. Pew’s survey of international views of the United Statesshows a stunning collapse in confidence that the U.S. president will do the right thing:
Domestic polls, of course, show very low approval for Trump. What’s truly striking, however, is that those who disapprove of Trump mostly disapprove “strongly.” The Navigator poll, for example, shows 48 percent of Americans strongly disapproving of Trump, much larger than the total number approving and 2 ½ times the number who strongly approve.
So many people both at home and around the world hate Trump. That has, however, been true since quite early in the Trump II administration. What has really changed is the dissipation of fear.
Globally, the most obvious reason nations have stopped fearing Trump is the debacle in Iran. At the start of the Iran war most people imagined that, whatever else one might say about Trump’s America, it had by far the world’s most powerful military. But what we’ve actually seen is one failure after another, as the U.S. military has failed to subdue the Iranian regime, been forced to abandon some of its own bases in the region, and depleted its supplies of munitions. Now America has refused to help Saudi Arabia against the Houthis — perhaps because we no longer have the necessary capabilities.
What about economic power? Trump clearly could do a lot of economic damage to Canada. But the U.S. economy would also suffer from all-out trade war. And while the damage from trade war would be much smaller as a percentage of U.S. GDP than Canadian GDP, Canadians appear to be solidly behind Carney, while Americans, to the extent they even know what is happening, appear by a small plurality to support Canada’s position:
And yes, foreign leaders are looking at the likely results of the U.S. midterm elections. From fiftyplusone:
So they look at the prospect of a president who will have less ability than ever to punish his perceived enemies, at home or abroad.
Globally, then, Trump is in exactly the opposite position of where Machiavelli said a prince should be: hated but not feared.
The situation in the U.S. is somewhat less blatant. Businesses — even businesses like the auto industry, which have a lot to lose from trade wars — remain quiet, presumably because the Trump administration retains considerable power to punish them via contracts, regulations and so on. (In many ways Trump has been acting as if he wants to destroy the U.S. auto industry, or at least leave it hopelessly uncompetitive as the world electrifies.) Even in America, however, fear of Trump is palpably fading.
Now, even a massive blue wave in November won’t end Trump’s ability to do immense damage to the nation and world — damage that he may well do out of sheer spite. He is, after all, exactly the kind of person who will feel, not that he failed America, but that America failed him.
More about that in future posts. For now, let’s cautiously celebrate a clear decline in the fear Trump inspires, abroad and at home.
MUSICAL CODA
Money is important, obviously, but not the most important thing. Canadians care about respect, dignity and compassion.
I'll do with a bit less money but maintain my humanity.
One of the things that’s likely increasing Carney’s appeal to Americans is his willingness to act on principle — something our own congress and Supreme Court seem unwilling to do.
Facts Only
* Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, affirmed the EU's willingness to move toward making Canada an "associate member."
* Mark Carney, Canada’s Prime Minister, strongly endorsed this idea.
* Donald Trump called the proposal a "hostile act" and threatened to cut off trade with Europe.
* The EU responded to Trump’s tariffs last year by making a deal rather than retaliating.
* Canada's economy is highly dependent on the United States as an export market and supplier.
* Foreign leaders have reportedly given up trying to placate Trump.
* World trade distance is noted, with Toronto being 3,935 miles from Frankfurt.
* Pew’s survey shows a collapse in confidence regarding the U.S. president's ability to do the right thing.
* A decline in fear of Trump has occurred globally, partly due to the outcome of the Iran conflict.
* The U.S. economy would also suffer from a full-scale trade war.
Executive Summary
Full Take
The narrative demonstrates a shift away from a fear-based geopolitical dynamic toward a more pragmatic calculus driven by perceived realities and diminishing fears. The pivot in the EU's stance on Canada suggests that immediate, reactive hostility towards figures like Trump is being superseded by long-term strategic positioning, even when underlying economic dependencies remain significant. The juxtaposition of Machiavelli’s observation regarding fear versus love reveals an attempt to manage power where a leader seeks influence without provoking active hatred—a state currently reflected in the global disengagement from Trump’s perceived threats.
The decline in global fear of Trump is not driven by a sudden realization of American policy success, but rather by observable failures in U.S. geopolitical and military performance, particularly concerning the Iran conflict, which eroded confidence in the notion that the U.S. possesses unassailable power. This suggests that systemic failures, both military and economic, serve as more potent arbiters of international perception than rhetoric alone. The underlying pattern is a societal exhaustion with high-stakes antagonism, leading to a retreat from pure fear toward a sober assessment of outcomes.
The implied tension regarding Canada's position highlights the friction between national self-interest (Canada's reliance on the U.S.) and aspirational alignment (the EU's push for reduced dependence). The final observation that Canadians value respect and dignity over mere financial gain suggests a deeper, human priority operating beneath the economic machinations. Future scrutiny should focus on whether this shift in attitude translates into sustained multilateral action or remains confined to diplomatic signaling. What concrete mechanisms are being prioritized—respect versus transactional security—in defining future foreign policy trajectories?
Sentinel — Human
The text reads as a thoughtful, opinionated editorial that weaves together current geopolitical events with classical philosophy to develop an argument about shifting dynamics of fear and power.