What did we think was happening back then, compared to what we know now?
Figure 1: Nonresidential fixed investment from 2001Q1 advance release (blue), from 2026Q2 2nd release (black), both in logs, 1999Q1=0. NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, NBER.
To compare annualized growth rates, in 2000Q1, nonresidential fixed investment was growing 19.1% according to the 2001Q1 advance vintage, but only 14.4% according to the latest vintage.
Currently, 2026Q2 2nd release investment is growing, 8.2%, down from 10.1% in Q1. GDPNow today reads 9.1% (annualized) growth for Q3. So, the AI driven boom still looks strong, but recall these numbers will be revised…
Figure 2: Nonresidential fixed investment (black), implied GDPNow (light blue square), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: 2026Q2 2nd release, Atlanta Fed, author’s calculations.
Off topic – Iran has reportedly offered to return to something like the April ceasefire, on terms similar to those in the memorandum of understanding that governed the April ceasefire:
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-strait-of-hormuz-7-day-proposal/
Iran says Hormuz could be reopened within 7 days of agreement. Recall that the U.S. war-criminal-in-chief has said Iran would only agree to reopen Hormuz after the U.S. midterm election; Iran is making the point that the war criminal is just making stuff up.
The original ceasefire MUO included a section which left Iran and Oman to determine how the Strait of Hormuz would operate. We have no details on today’s Iranian offer, but it is said to be a “compressed” version of the MOU. My guess is that Iran’s offer includes that bit about who controls Hormuz.
Rubio has said the U.S. is in no hurry to reach a deal. Not winning any friends saying that, since most everybody else is in a hurry, aside from some oil execs.
Crude is down about 2% today, presumably in response to Iran’s offer.
Off topic – Kalshi now has odds of Democrats winning control of the Senate at 61%, holding 52 seats. Professional election handicappers, on average, have Democrats probably taking 48 seats, Republicans 47 seats, with 5 seats too close to call. Democrats will hold power in the Senate by just 2 seats if they win all 5 “too close to call” races.
John Fetterman of Pennsylvania has said he’ll caucus with Democrats, but the mere fact that he’s been asked highlights the risk that he’ll switch party. He could demand enormous power in return for granting the majority to either party. With Fetterman around, Democrats are not guaranteed control of the Senate if they hold only 51 seats. They need 52.
It’s probably worth noting that Democrats lead in voter preference polls in all five “too close to call” states, though the standard journalistic disclaimer these days is “we all know how wrong polls can be”.