Beverage alcohol (TBA) volume declined by 2% across 22 markets in 2025.
Wine volume and value fell by 4% and 2%, respectively, in 2025.
Spirits value dropped by 4% in the same markets, with national spirits like baijiu in China seeing a 12% value decline.
China’s TBA market saw a 2% volume decline and a 12% value decline in 2025.
Excluding baijiu, China’s TBA volume declined by 1% and value remained flat.
Consumer confidence was cited as a factor due to geopolitical instability, inflation, and political polarization.
Prosecco volume and value grew by 2% and 4%, respectively.
RTD beverages grew by 3% in volume and 4% in value, with strong gains in South Africa, Canada, and Japan.
No-alcohol beer volume and value increased by 8% and 12%, respectively.
India’s travel retail sector saw 4% volume growth and 5% value growth.
South Africa’s TBA market grew by 4% in volume and 12% in value.
The 22 markets analyzed include Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, the Philippines, Poland, Russia, Spain, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, the U.S., the U.K., and the Global Travel Retail market.

The strongest version of this narrative highlights a clear global trend: the beverage alcohol industry faced significant headwinds in 2025, driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures. The data from IWSR is robust, covering 75% of the global market, and the decline in traditional categories like wine and spirits is well-documented. The report also fairly acknowledges exceptions, such as the growth of RTDs and no-alcohol beer, which suggests shifting consumer preferences rather than a uniform collapse. This nuance strengthens the analysis, avoiding alarmism while still underscoring structural challenges.
Pattern scan: The framing leans toward a "doom and gloom" narrative, but it avoids outright emotional exploitation by balancing declines with growth areas. There’s no clear distortion or bad faith, though the emphasis on negative trends could subtly reinforce a sense of inevitability. The use of IWSR data lends authority, but the lack of deeper exploration into why certain categories (like RTDs) thrived while others faltered leaves room for unexamined assumptions. For example, is the decline in national spirits like baijiu purely economic, or are cultural shifts also at play?
Root cause: The narrative assumes consumer confidence is the primary driver, but this may oversimplify the role of regulatory changes, health trends, or generational shifts in drinking habits. Historically, alcohol markets are resilient but not immune to broader economic cycles—this echoes past downturns tied to recessions or policy shifts (e.g., Prohibition-era parallels or post-2008 austerity). The unstated assumption is that this is a temporary blip, but what if it’s a permanent reordering?
Implications: The winners (RTDs, no-alcohol beer) suggest a move toward convenience and health-consciousness, which could reshape industry dynamics. Smaller producers or traditional categories may struggle, while agile brands adapt. The second-order effect could be consolidation, with larger players acquiring niche brands to hedge against volatility. For consumers, this may mean more choices but also higher prices as costs are passed down.
Bridge questions: How much of this decline is cyclical versus structural? Are younger consumers permanently shifting away from traditional alcohol, or is this a temporary response to economic pressure? What role do government policies (e.g., sin taxes, advertising restrictions) play in these trends?
Counterstrike scan: If this were part of an influence campaign, the playbook might involve amplifying the decline to undermine confidence in the industry or promote alternatives (e.g., non-alcoholic beverages). However, the actual content doesn’t match this pattern—it presents a balanced view with clear data points and acknowledges counter-trends. No structural alignment with manipulation is detected.
Patterns detected: none