Nate Silver sees the Senate as a tossup. I disagree.
Tipping Point Definition
The tipping point state is determined by ordering margins of victory in decreasing order (largest to smallest)
The tipping point is the state with the smallest percentage margin of victory that wins control of the Senate.
Since Republicans hold the White House and a tie-breaking Vice-Presidential vote, Republicans need 50 seats and Democrats 51 to control the Senate.
In this case, Democrats need to pick up four seats to have a majority.
Assuming Democrats pick up four or more, the tipping point would be the state with the smallest percentage margin of victory that put Democrats over the top.
A Tour of Seven Tipping Point States
Please consider A Tour of Seven Tipping Point States
- Texas: Democratic win probability 59%. Tipping point probability 13%
- Ohio: Democratic win probability 62%. Tipping point probability 12%
- Iowa: Democratic win probability 44%. Tipping point probability 11%
- Maine: Democratic win probability 70%. Tipping point probability 11%
- Michigan: Democratic win probability 68%. Tipping point probability 11%
- Alaska: Democratic win probability 42%. Tipping point probability 9%
- North Carolina: Democratic win probability 91%. Tipping point probability 4%
Those are interesting numbers. Nate Silver gives the polls behind the numbers.
Silver is way ahead of the pack regarding Texas and Ohio. Assuming he is correct, I fail to see how this is tossup instead of lean Democrat.
However, his definitions of lean are a bit more stringent than others. Silver comments “[Texas] is just a hairsbreadth away from moving from a toss-up to lean D.
For Democrats, at least those who put any faith in Silver, that’s quite an encouraging statement.
Iowa Tipping Point
Iowa is a small step down in tipping point probability, although 12 percent versus 11 percent isn’t hugely meaningful. But unlike the previous two states, the Democratic candidate is not leading in the polls. It’s essentially a dead heat: Republican and current US House member Ashley Hinson leads state legislator and gold-medal Paralympian Josh Turek by just 0.3 points in our average. In terms of forecasted margin of victory, our Deluxe model expects this to be the closest Senate race this cycle at R +1.5
And in this case, the fundamentals also aren’t doing Democrats any favors. Our simple and fancy estimates both end up around R +3. Why so little difference? Iowa is an open seat race where neither candidate is an electorally experienced overperformer or a scandal-plagued mess. So adding incumbency, fundraising, and experience doesn’t move FLIPR too far from the baseline.
Silver is looking at political fundamentals, oblivious to the economics.
Farmers have been crucified by Trump policies.
Iowa Economic Fundamentals
- Trump’s trade war with China cost farmers exports.
- Trump’s tariffs raised the price of farm machinery.
- Trump’s inane war with Iran has diesel and fertilizer prices soaring.
- Deportation madness is impacting crop picking.
Alaska
The betting markets Democrat odds in Alaska significantly higher than Silver, with Ohio and Texas significantly lower.
I see no reason to not rate Alaska a tossup.
To avoid cherry picking, I suspect Democrat odds are a bit less in Texas and Ohio than Silver, but a bit better in Alaska and Iowa.
Conslusion
I am revising my odds of Democrats winning the Senate up to 57 percent from 55 after reading Silver’s analysis.
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Hello Farmers
Hello farmers, are you happy paying a tiny 46 percent more for diesel?
The stupidest thing about this “tiny percent” is that it is not just gasoline of diesel. It’s fertilizer, aluminum, copper, microchips, and everything else too.
I have been talking about the possibility of Democrats picking up six seats all year.
In January, the idea seemed ridiculous.
It should no longer be ridiculous to anyone.
Mish, why do you still put it so much effort following races between D and R? Why dont you spend that same amount of time going door to door and asking neighbors whether they would vote for you if you ran for the House?
Mish, if you decide to go door to door to gauge interest, I wonder whether you should lead with: “Hello. I am wondering whether to run as an independent for the House and want to gauge interest from non-voters. Did you refuse voting during the last election?”. If they voted, dont bother asking for support from them, cuz theyre too stupid. You need to find neighbors who dont vote but might give a shit if you were a candidate.
R’s are gonna lose the Senate one way or another unless people are misleading the pollsters. And unless the D’s are completely unacceptable in those states, it will be a good margin. I’m betting on it in Kalshi. It has to be!!!
Excellent analysis. I doubted you during the last election cycle but not this time around. I have no idea which way the election will go and it doesn’t really matter anymore as I’m living life large and far away from the chaos.
The only thing I am 100% sure of is…
Do worry, Trump, Walrus, GOP, and democrats will find a way to make things even worse.™
2-star Mishelin award granted for analysis and projection.
The downvoter brigade is out today! Maybe the -2 is from jealous people?
Next question Who is on the short list to retire from the Supreme Court?
bonus question Will Trump get another judge on the court and whom might that be?
Hormuz will become a US territory. So much winning !
So we are concerned about a slightly different set of snouts in the trough?
Farmers may have been crucified by Trump, your terms, but they ain’t pulling that D lever–that is, if Iowa is to go Blue it won’t be because farmers will pull the left hand lever, they would just have to stay home. Since I believe they won’t, I wanna take a wager it stays red in Iowa–as someone who is on the ground in Iowa not in Iowa City, Cedar Falls or to a lesser extent Ames. Regardless of economics, the left has a culture problem that runs counter to Iowa values.
Grew up in Davenport, IA, now in Denver, CO, and I agree. Iowa will stay Red.
What about the culture of covering up pedophiles and wars of choice and brazen corruption
Cultural values? What the fuck are you talking about?
Grow up
Yeah, and James Dell Collins (his fake last name is now Talarico) is more of a soy boy than Beto O’Rourke. Does not seem like a good fit for Texas, and likely will not be a good fit in 2032 if he wins this year and runs for re election. I guess Dems think a soy boy like him will be a better candidate as Texas becomes more like Commiefornia.
Hopefully, neither. The only congress that wins for the average citizen is when there is gridlock in dc.
It doesn’t matter, really. The donorCRAT Party will always have just the right number of rotating villains to tip the scales in favor of their corporate capitalist bosses.
– Texas: Democratic win probability 59%. TP 13% > Last time a Democrat won a Texas Senate seat, was 1988. Not happening with this Democrat Candidate. Maybe 40%?
– Ohio: Democratic win probability 62%. TP 12% > On Jan 3 2027, the Republicans took control of Both Senate Seats. Ohio wanted a change. Nothing has changed that significantly, to have that situation change now. More like a 40% Chance to me.
– Iowa: Democratic win probability 44%. Tipping point probability 11% > May be closer to literally a toss up perhaps?
– Maine: Democratic win probability 70%. Tipping point probability 11% > Democrats & Collins win easily.
– Michigan: Democratic win probability 68%. Tipping point probability 11% > Democrats Win but closer to high 50’s perhaps?
– Alaska: Democratic win probability 42%. Tipping point probability 9% > May be closer to literally a toss up perhaps?
– North Carolina: Democratic win probability 91%. Tipping point probability 4% > Auto Dem.
I can picture 4R & 3D a plausible outcome.
Paxton is despised by even his Republican supporters.
Talerico is smart, young, good looking and an eloquent speaker.
None of the Republican attacks have landed on Talerico.
Paxton & Abbott have enraged many business men and veterans with their recent banning of Delta-8 and THCa.
Hispanic support has evaporated with Trump and his ICE attacks on Hispanics.
Texans are angry. The time for change is upon us.
I cannot put into words the level of contempt in which I hold Hispanics who voted for Trump.
I mean, he openly said, multiple times, how much he despises Hispanics. He openly said, multiple times, how he wanted the US to be a “white country”.
Nothing that he did should have surprised anyone. He did EXACTLY what he said he would do.
So, if you are Hispanic and still voted for him…well, fuck you.
Too early to say anything. Thing can change in the last one or two weeks to elections. We have seen that many times before
Stalin said something like
it doesnt matter who gets the votes
it matters who counts the votes
update that to
and it matters who can remote link to the Barack Soros voting machines
That is where this is heading. Regardless of who wins, Trump has created people who spout this kind of nonsense.
But its true. It was true before R’s began saying it like a tic.
The spoils of election victory are too great. The temptation to cheat is immense. Rigging ballots required bribing more people. Now the rigging is consolidated.
But the election-day rigging is between D and R. The most important “rigging” is the rigging of people’s minds via propaganda. Telling people who’s electable and who isnt. Faking poll data. Making bogus comparisons. By the time November comes, the oligarchs win either way.
I always am confused by how much ire Soros gets by these types. Like, sure he’s endemic to the whole money having outsized influence on politics.
But didn’t every evil tech ceo and shitty money grubbing industrialist show up to the literal inauguration?