[Today’s Iran war update yet again launched before complete. Please return for a final version at 8:00 AM EDT]
As is so often the case with Trump, no one, likely including Trump himself, knows where he is going as his Iran war failing about pulls the world into deeper economic crisis.
On the one hand, Trump may have finally recognized that even he is subject to Stein’s Law: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.“ The “something that cannot go on” was well predicted at the start of this conflict. One was the ability to prosecute a high intensity air campaign for all that long, given how depleted US stocks were and the long timetables for replenishment. Second was the idea that the belligerents could subdue a country as big and geographically hostile as Iran absent a truly massive ground invasion.1
On the other hand, Trump has had a long-standing obsession with Iran and delusions about the use of military force, even before his white matter disease set in. He saw the Iran hostage crisis as a US humiliation which he oddly has taken personally. He just posted this clip on Truth Social. It is hard to square Trump posting this old video segment with his hissy fits threatening to throw up his hand and leave the rest of the world to deal with how to wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz back from Iran.
Readers can correct me, but from what I can tell on Twitter, this clip was published on Middle East sites before Trump posted it on Truth Social:
In 1987, a rare video shows U.S. President Donald Trump in an interview discussing the need to control Iranian oil 38 years ago, emphasizing the importance of compensating American losses caused by Iran. pic.twitter.com/xLy16ejZpv
— The Middle East (@A_M_R_M1) March 30, 2026
And as we will soon describe, even if Trump actually were to try to walk out, Israel is still waging war in Lebanon, which means Iran will continue its campaign against Israel, as will the Houthis and of course Hezbollah. Can Trump realistically stand pat in that scenarios?
We’ll turn later to how even what now would be the best of bad options, that of the world slowly coming to grips with the reality of Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz and making transit arrangements. That would take some time to come into play, even so would result in a durable shortfall, since 50% of old transit levels is likely all that would result. As Stanislav Krapivnik pointed out, the loss of Gulf energy is equivalent to US plus Russian output. While both no doubt have some swing capacity, meaningfully increasing output is at a bare minimum three years away. That shortfall can be slightly blunted if the Houthis don’t bar Saudi Arabia from transporting some crude for shipment via the Red Sea.
As readers well know, if the belligerents instead try to destroy Iranian energy assets, Iran will unleash a wave of destruction across the Middle East. Merely taking out desalination plants will make them uninhabitable and maintaining oil production and transport close to impossible.
Iran believes that the Trump climbdown of sorts is yet another ruse, designed to buy Trump more time and keep oil traders on side as the belligerents ready what they fantasize will be a knockout blow:
Prof. Marandi is right.
Don't allow the recent statements by Trump to fool you. The invasion is imminent. https://t.co/dBm6ygAgy1
— Narjes Rahmati 🟩☫🟥 نرجس رحمتی (@Narjes_Rahmati) April 1, 2026
Larry Johnson’s latest post catalogues how US forces are continuing to build up in the Iran theater. From Trump to give “important update on Iran” Wednesday in prime-time speech:
The new deployment of these assets are consistent with a military option that involves close-air support and/or attacks on Iranian fast boats and water drones.
So what is Trump going to announce?
Option 1 — Declare that negotiations with Iran via intermediaries (e.g., Pakistan) are progressing and that they United States is going to cease combat operations against Iran in order to support the negotiations and achieve a peaceful resolution.
Option 2 — Declare that victory has been achieved and that US forces will begin withdrawing from the region, leaving the status of the Strait of Hormuz in limbo.
Option 3 — Announce a massive air and ground operation to secure the freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Consistent with the idea of Trump’s TACO-lite being a combo plate of yet more oil price manipulation and attempted Iran deception is never-met-a-war-he-didn’t-want-fought-even-harder Lindsey Graham suddenly signing from a negotiation choirbook. From Graham to Trump: ‘Wind down’ Iran war, ‘wind up’ efforts for peace deal in The Hill:
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said Monday he has encouraged President Trump to “wind down” the Iran war and “wind up” efforts for a peace deal while noting that it would take an agreement from both parties to resolve the conflict in the Middle East.
For detail:
Just had a very good discussion with @POTUS about his recent statement regarding the consequences to Iran if they do not agree to an acceptable peace deal.
I support diplomatic efforts to end the conflict consistent with our military objectives, but it takes two to tango.
— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) March 30, 2026
Admittedly, the Hill does point out that the childless Graham has come under fierce criticism for his eagerness to send other people’s progeny to die.
And even if Trump was finally genuinely having cold feet and seeking an exit, Israel is blocking the door:
‼️ Netanyahu just made any ceasefire almost impossible.
He openly declared:
“Even if a deal is reached with Iran, we will ensure that the agreement does not include Lebanon. We will decide when & how to handle it.”This is a non-starter for Tehran.
For Iran, the Axis,…— Hala Jaber (@HalaJaber) March 31, 2026
From the body of the tweet:
Netanyahu’s statement confirms the fundamental mismatch:
For the Axis this is existential survival. Iran sees this as proof that the US/Israel are not serious about a real ceasefire.
For Israel it’s a war of choice with no intention of stopping in Lebanon.
While Trump talks about “great progress” & “new reasonable regime, Netanyahu is simultaneously torpedoing the Lebanon component just made a deal much harder, if not impossible in the short term.Expect more missile waves, Axis coordination, not a breakthrough.
The gap remains wide. Expect escalation rather than breakthrough in the coming days.
Consider also a new story from the New York Times, Israel’s Message to Southern Lebanon: Shiites Must Go. Key sections:
In private calls to local leaders across southern Lebanon, Israeli military officials have assured several Christian and Druse communities that they could remain in the evacuation zone. They have pressed them, however, to force out any Lebanese from neighboring Shiite Muslim communities who have sought refuge among them as Israeli bombardment flatten Shiite towns, according to local Christian, Druse and Shiite leaders who spoke to The New York Times. The Shiites make up the majority of southern Lebanon….
[Defense Minister] Mr. [Israel] Katz said in a statement that Lebanese who had fled their homes in the south “will be completely prohibited” from returning “until the safety and security of northern Israeli residents is ensured.” He previously specified that Shiites would not be allowed to return and likened Israel’s strategy in Lebanon to that in Gaza.
That public messaging, along with the private push on local leaders, suggests that Israel is intent on redrawing not only the geographic map of south Lebanon but also the demographic one.
Over the past two weeks, Israeli military officials have called leaders of at least eight villages and told them to expel Shiites who had sought refuge in their communities, municipal officials and local Christian, Druse and Shiite leaders said in interviews. All complied, fearing that if they did not their towns could be hit next in the Israeli bombardment, they said.
Keep in mind that key Gulf States continue to press for escalation. This Young Turks between Ana and Trita Parsi shows a very well-informed Ana politely pushing back against Trita, particularly on the idea that there will be negotiations.2
Trita oddly posits that Iran will have to try to make nice since it can’t afford to have ongoing hostility with its neighbors. As if its neighbors didn’t happily house US bases and were all in for the “strangle Iran” project.3 Confirming that reading:
IRANIAN PARLIAMENT: THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL NOT OPEN, WE HAVE NOT HELD ANY NEGOTIATIONS, AND WE WILL NOT HOLD THEM
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) April 1, 2026
Ana then cites a fresh Association Press account that the Saudis and some other Gulf states are still pressing the US for more escalation. Trita then tried to argue that the Saudi Foreign Ministry was making pro-reconciliation noises while MbS was for more use of force against Iran. Ahem, we are to believe that the Foreign Ministry is an independent actor? Seriously?
Simplicius makes the same point more forcefully in his latest piece:
Now that Trump has signaled his willingness to end the war without reopening Hormuz, the Gulf states have erupted in a chorus of fear behind the scenes.
Breaking Points talks to Rory Johnston on what the new world might look like, assuming many states are forced begrudgingly to accept Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz (hat tip Sibiryak):
Key points from Johnston:
That’s where you get prolonged closure of the Strait you get risk of further you know attacks on regional oil infrastructure things that can’t just be undone things that are permanent or at least years-long durable. I think that’s a scenario, but but I see that is so dire that I see it as very difficult to hold as my base case because I just don’t think that any politician least alone Donald Trump has the wherewithal to go through with kind of something so long and arduous like that.
I think more likely here is the other scenario which is my base case from the very beginning which has been what I call the unilateral TACO which is people are like well Trump can’t just TACO this is not tariffs this is not trade policy you know there are multiple participants in this war he can’t just decide by himself.
I humbly disagree and I think that Trump would likely disagree with that as well I think if we’ve seen anything about Trump he’s not bound by precedent, he’s not bound by allies, he’s not bound by anything and I think he’s very clearly already bored of this war….So I think if the if the consequences keep ramping and I don’t think this is over yet. I think that we still need higher oil prices and lower equity prices and more economic pain to force that unilateral TACO. But that’s how I see this eventually going is one day we’re just going to get a post like it’s done. You know, US Navy sailing home. That’s how I picture this ending.
Note we pointed out early on is that the one thing that could force Trump into retreat is an investor revolt. But Trump has done an astonishing job of talking them off the ledge even as the below-the-waterline damage the economy compounds.
More from Johntson:
I think you know any scenario is going to have structurally higher prices. I think in the scenario where you have, you know, a a boots on the ground dragout, $200 plus. I think in this scenario of a unilateral TACO, Iran having some kind of sovereign control over the Strait, which again is just an unthinkable thing to kind of consider long term, but that’s what we’re looking like we’re at least trending towards possibly. In that scenario, I still think that oil prices currently, I’m looking at my screen, Brent’s just about 117. I think that’s still too low. I think that, you know, even though this unilateral taco is bearish or a lower price environment than the boots-on-the-ground scenario, I think both of them are still dire and like a deeply untenable supply situation. And I think in the scenario where Iran does continue to control the Strait, um then we’re just going to like it’s just setting us up very predictably for the next crisis. I think this is like this is a situation that can’t last. It is inherently politically untenable and unstable and we’re going to get the next flare up. So we go from a long drawn out awful Hormuz closure to maybe like a perennial two week closure in Hormuz which seems like an insane thing to bake into the system and but that’s kind of again what it’s looking like we might be arriving at….
So, just let’s talk through the the the size of the toll first because I think you know what we’ve seen discussed so far is a $2 million passage, which sounds very expensive, but relative to like a VLCC or a very large crude carrier tanker, the the largest ones that are typically used, they carry about 2 million barrels of crude. So, that’s only about a dollar a barrel on toll. that is expensive but relative to the current deeply deeply problematic status quo, it is a clear uh kind of beneficial change uh to the global supply situation. But to your point, the the politics of this are deeply untenable and it seems unlikely that Iran would allow a complete reopening of the street again. Prior to the war, we were having about 100 plus 100 to 120 vessels crossing the street every day.
You know, maybe we get back up to 50% of that. Then with some of the offsets that we have in the system like the Saudi East West pipeline and other and other sources, maybe we get back to something that’s, you know, just a deep deficit rather than a catastrophic supply deficit.
But I think that’s the scenario is that we just have some kind of durable control uh for Iran in this in this in this region and the Gulf countries kind of having just need to, you know, swallow the the bitter pill because the alternative is existential for them.
This, I think, is is is existential for them as well. Uh but at least it is a scenario where they continue exporting their oil and restarting their economies relative to right now where virtually I mean by far their large economic sector is completely sidelined.
I hate to say it, but this base case is likely to be a best case.
And I don’t see Iran being the big impediment to normalization of traffic. Iran has said it won’t allow traffic to the US or Israel or co-belligerents. But the US still has sanctions on Iran, which includes sanctioning any party that does business with Iran, as in pay the tolls. If the US keeps that in place, it would considerably constrain this mechanism, particularly with respect to Gulf states that have dollarized economies (the UAE currency is explicitly linked to the dollar) and are presumably very tied into US banking/payment systems.
For a less cheery view, Ben Panga just linked to a new article by the Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Now brace for an even bigger oil shock. Key points:
The world has lost over a tenth of its daily oil supply, along with critical volumes of jet fuel, diesel and refined petroleum products. Now prepare for loss of the next tenth…
This is not a remote tail risk. It is an all-too-plausible outcome as Donald Trump concentrates the 82nd Airborne Division and US marines to “take the oil” on Iran’s Kharg Island…
The pro-Iranian Houthis in Yemen have finally joined the Gulf war, opening a second front in the Red Sea and endangering a further 6pc of global oil supply.
“The Houthis could effectively block all Red Sea shipments,” says Helima Croft, a former CIA analyst now at RBC Capital Markets. “It would only take a relatively small show of force to push crude another leg higher.”…
Trump says America “doesn’t need” the Strait of Hormuz.
Who put that idea in his head? The US imports eight million barrels a day (b/d), either refined products or heavy crude to balance its refineries. It has four times the petrol dependency per capita of the UK.
Internal US prices of jet fuel, diesel, fertilisers, sulphur and aluminium are all shaped by the Gulf through global markets. Iran would control a third of the world’s helium shipments, giving it a partial stranglehold over a critical input for semiconductors…
For what it is worth – not much in an integrated global oil market – UK is one of the least dependent countries in Europe and Asia on Gulf shipments. Overall, the US is actually more dependent…
It is a racing certainty that the Houthis will pull the trigger if Trump attacks Kharg Island and carries out his threat to “conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinisation plants!)” – a threat to commit wholesale war crimes…
David Fyfe, the chief economist at Argus Media, says prices will reach traumatic levels if the Red Sea now comes under fire and remains closed for weeks.
“You can pick any arbitrary number – $200, or anything you want – the risk is that we’ll see huge demand destruction, inflation going through the roof and global growth shuddering to a halt. It is a horrible thought,” says Fyfe, who used to run the oil division at the International Energy Agency….
An attack on Kharg Island would be the crowning disaster…It would cut off a further 2.4 million b/d of world oil supply. These Iranian exports make up the lion’s share of the crude shipments passing through the strait at the moment. The barrels mostly go to China but that frees up oil for the world market.
Citrinowicz says the whole idea that Washington can reopen Gulf shipping with a token military force is illusory…
The Kharg facilities would be useless to the US without the hinterland of Iran’s oil fields…
Even if the war ends today, it will take months to restore oil output and years to repair Qatar’s terminal for liquefied natural gas.
RBC Capital estimates that 11.6 million b/d of oil is currently shut down. Each week the war goes on, the greater the permanent damage to well pressure. If the Red Sea is closed too, the giant Saudi fields will also suffer structural degradation.
All the easy buffers are being used up. The lifting of sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil – another Trumpian masterpiece – has released just days of extra supply from barrels floating on water….
Every corner of the globe will be hit by Apr 20 or thereabouts. Regional prices will converge via arbitrage and there will then be a planetary oil crisis with very few places left to hide.
If it’s any comfort, at least we may see regime change in Washington.
This talk provides a very good review of data that shows that oil prices should be much higher than they are now. Snider explains that a big reason why is Trump’s successful market manipulation by forcefully selling the idea that an end to the war is nigh. Oil longs do not want the risk of big losses via a sudden price drop.
If you listen carefully, you will see Snider does not contemplate that oil prices would remain elevated even if the war ended tomorrow due to shipping snarls and the time needed to bring shuttered oil facilities back to full production. That suggests that that is not factoring into traders’ thinking.
Sal Mercogliano provides his usual informative where he politely debunks Trump claims about how many ships are going through the Strait of Hormuz as well as an extended video of a ship making the crossing per Iranian procedures:
Some short kinetic updates. From the aforementioned Simplcius article (images omitted):
All the while, Iran has continued deconstructing its neighbors’ infrastructure, particularly after Iran’s petrochemical facilities were hit in Tabriz earlier. Iran responded by allegedly hitting Kuwait’s largest desalination plant, at least according to some reports:
NASA satellite detects fire at the West Doha Power Plant, Kuwait — its largest Power Generation & Desalination Plant
It accounts for 38.5% of Kuwait’s total desalination capacity
Israeli petrochemical companies were also hit, as announced by Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force Majid Mousavi
Massive damage was also seen done via new satellite photos to the US Army’s Camp Buehring base in Kuwait, with many of the base’s varying components targeted this time, from power stations to living quarters:
Extensive damage spotted at U.S. Army Base Camp Buehring in Kuwait following Iranian strikes.
Aircraft hangars, barracks, a gym, warehouses, a power station and other facilities on the base were damaged.
Breaking News:
Israel reports that 48 officers and soldiers were wounded over the past 48 hours in clashes with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The cumulative toll now stands at 309 casualties among officers and soldiers, including 23 in very serious condition.
— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) April 1, 2026
An important but not well-covered development:
🚨Iran's Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the Knesset's resolution to execute Palestinian prisoners, calling it a violation of the 1949 Geneva Conventions and "a deadly blow against international law."
— Mehr News Agency (@MehrnewsCom) April 1, 2026
And some badly needed humor:
Trump’s Downfall.
If you haven’t laughed your ass off, last line will knock you out 🤣 pic.twitter.com/2hidFWyvN6— ITDUDE F.E.L.L.A (@The_Real_ITDUDE) March 30, 2026
Done for today. See you tomorrow!
_____
1 Larry Wilkerson has said even nukes would not finish off Iran given among other things limitations on where they could be deployed given fallout to Israel and the Gulf States. Professor Marandi stated that Iran would survive the destruction of Tehran.
2 I remain mystified as to how many otherwise intelligent people cannot see that negotiations are impossible prior to regime change.
3 In light of recent behavior of the Gulf States, it is not hard to see the China-brokered attempt at normalization between the Saudis and Iran as a combo of hedging bets by elevating China as a force in international affairs (as in making nice to China) and positioning Saudi Arabia to get more leverage with the US.
Now brace for an even bigger oil shock (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard latest in Telegraph)
Plenty of data and analyst quotes.
—
Thank you Yves for your continuing wonderful work!
If the CIA or other gray eminences really wanted the war to end soon, they would give the IRGC the coordinates of the hide-outs of Netanyahu, Smotrich, Ben Gvir, Katz, et al., and let Iran do its own version of a decapitation strike. Iran may not have great intelligence within Israel, but the US must have a big presence. If the current Israeli leaders don’t want peace and Our Lord and Savior Mr. Market wants peace, “we” could arrange for their replacement as part of an under-the-table deal with the Iranians.
Hello Yves , i do not think you saying the following is correct
” We’ll turn later to how even what now would be the best of bad options, that of the world slowly coming to grips with the reality of Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz and making transit arrangements. That would take some time to come into play, even so would result in a durable shortfall, since 50% of old transit levels is likely all that would result. As Stanislav Krapivnik pointed out, the loss of Gulf energy is equivalent to US plus Russian output. While both no doubt have some swing capacity, meaningfully increasing output is at a bare minimum three years away. That shortfall can be slightly blunted if the Houthis don’t bar Saudi Arabia from transporting some crude for shipment via the Red Sea.”
Surely Iran controlling the Hormus Straights is a much better option than the current state of affairs where the USA controlled the GCC and therefore controlled the Hormuz Straights , is it not better that the Hormuz Straights are controlled by locals , by locals i do not mean the synthetic countries set up in the 1970s by USA so they could control the oil , what i mean is Arabia and Iran and Iraq and Oman the real locals.
Do you not agree it is best these locals control the Hormuz Straits and the oil and other products coming from this area.
How would the USA like it if other far away countries controlled their wheat and oil and gas etc ? lets be honest , they wouldnt , they wouldnt stand for it , they would do exactly what Iran is doing.
You seem to miss:
1. The comparison is to the old normal
2. The GCC is not going to cooperate, which means even this scenario is optimistic and = a global depression, which will be an even bigger fall that the 1930s one due to fragile supply chains and dependence on Big Ag food, chips and whatnot. That means mass deaths and not just in Africa.
The GCC needs to get their heads screwed on straight. The US dangled a giant gold ring in front of the regional elites decades ago and they greedily grabbed for it. They used all the money to create modern day slave states where elites rule uncontested and the majority of the population is brought in from elsewhere to do the grunt work under dangerous conditions, a model current US tech bro elites would very much like to emulate.
The Persians have thrown a massive spanner into the works. The GCC business model is shot. Literally. The elites are slowly going bankrupt now, surrounded by a whole lot of very disgruntled people. They could see the writing on the wall here and cooperate with Iran. If they hold out thinking they’re going to recover their filthy lucre, they risk falling into the second stage of bankruptcy, where it happens all at once. And if they don’t get their heads straightened out, they risk losing those too, also literally.
They could do the whole world a favor by cooperating. But they will likely not cooperate. Nemesis will not be kind to them. Their ‘nations’ may well turn back into camel stops again.
Well, come on all of you, Epstein compromised strong men
Netanyahu needs your help again
He’s got himself in a terrible jam
Way down yonder adjacent to the promised land
So sail out the navy and gin up some funds
We’re gonna have a whole lotta fun
And it’s one, two, three
What are we fighting for?
Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn
Next stop is the promised land
And it’s five, six, seven megatons
Open up the pearly gates
Well there ain’t no time to wonder why
Whoopee! we’re all gonna die
Well, come on Bibi, let’s move fast
Your big chance has come at last
Now you can go out and get those Persians
‘Cause the only good Iranian is one no longer casting aspersions
And you know that peace can only be won
When we’ve blown ’em all to kingdom come
And it’s one, two, three
What are we fighting for?
Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn
Next stop is the promised land
And it’s five, six, seven megatons
Open up the pearly gates
Well there ain’t no time to wonder why
Whoopee! we’re all gonna die
Come on Wall*Street, don’t be slow
Why man, this is war a-go-go
There’s plenty good money to be made
By supplying the MIC with the tools of its trade
But just hope and pray that if they drop the bomb
They drop it with some aplomb
And it’s one, two, three
What are we fighting for?
Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn
Next stop is the promised land
And it’s five, six, seven megatons
Open up the pearly gates
Well there ain’t no time to wonder why
Whoopee! we’re all gonna die
Country Joe Mcdonald – Feel Like i’m Fixing to Die Rag – Woodstock ’69
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRl6-bHlz-4&list=RDeRl6-bHlz-4
>>>I think you know what we’ve seen discussed so far is a $2 million passage,
this value was essentially made up by Twitter for a Chinese ship. Yes, there was a toll but it’s unknown. expect any hypothetical toll to be substantially higher.
“….The transit was brokered by a Chinese maritime services company acting as an intermediary, which also handled the payment to Iranian authorities, Lloyd’s List understands. The exact amount and method of payment could not be confirmed….”
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156689/Chinese-boxship-pays-Iran-for-Hormuz-passage-as-corridor-traffic-grows
Any connection between Trump’s speech tonight and that today is April Fool’s Day???
Who will be getting pranked, Iran? The US taxpayers? Europe? Planet Earth?
In their understandable delight (which I share) at seeing a lawless and bloodthirsty Israel thrashed by an infuriated and justly vengeful Iran, some here at NC have been rather quick to prophesy that country’s imminent demise. Nothing could be farther from the truth; I say this as one who wishes it were not so. True, the performance of its Gucci soldiers in combat with resolute and battle hardened Hezbollah effectives has been little short of abject, and if reports are to be credited its stock of missile interceptors is much diminished and rather unlikely to be replenished anytime soon. Yet it would be naïve to suppose that the right arm of the IDF has lost its cunning and cannot project power in the absence of American assistance. To believe otherwise is to indulge in fantasy.
My esteemed colleagues would be wise, as well, not to give way just yet to schadenfreude when contemplating the economic disintegration of Israel that is imagined – nay, predicted by so many – to follow the Iranian victory that is all but certain. The country’s collapse may or may not impend but the time to rejoice in its downfall has yet to arrive. For the moment, as an article in the latest number of the (ferociously anti-Zionist) journal Jewish Currents explains in detail, the country is doing pretty well for itself, if not actually riding high; in any event, profiting mightily from its prosecution of the current war. Wages are high, employment is steady if not full and eye-watering quantities of advanced weaponry are being marketed to a vast number of buyers, among them countries professing support for the cause of Palestine, earning many billions in revenue. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange is booming as never before, Intel, Amazon, et hoc genus have been making investment commitments in the tens of billions, and high-tech industry grows apace. In short, war or no war Israel is flourishing like the green bay tree. Nor does the emigration of educated young people pose anything like the threat to the country’s economic future that it is commonly thought to do; not in the short to medium term at all events.
There are good reasons why its citizens, seriously inconvenienced as they have been by bombardment round the clock, remain complacent and on the whole unperturbed by the shape of things to come. This sadly is a truth borne out by my personal contact with family and friends there.
Many a day will have to pass, I fear, before the settler colony can even begin to be thought of as staring at its own extinction. It’s early days, in short, to be yielding to the impulse to rub one’s hands in glee. A realism without illusions– Gramsci’s optimism of the will coupled with pessimism of the intellect – is surely in order when contemplating Israel’s fate in a war that is sure to be a long affair, whatever else may be the case.
Hasbara there-done that.
Israel won’t allow any of the carnage inflicted on it be shown, but instead we get puff pieces such as rumors of their demise is greatly exaggerated~
The thought occurs to wonder what your assessment is of the current efficacy of Israeli anti-missile defenses, and the implications of that for the protection of vital civilian and military infrastructure.
Israel has never before been in a Mutual Assured Destruction relationship with any of its regional neighbors.
Surely something has profoundly changed.
Those villages that were forced to expel Shiite refugees imagine that they might be safe now. But as soon as the first Israeli settlements get built, they too will be bombed and pushed north of the Litani river. Those Settlers operate on the idea that if they can see villages that are not Israeli, then they do not “feel safe” and will demand that the government use the IDF to get rid of them. The more that they expand, the more they insist that “the others” be removed from their sight so that they may feel safe.
After this conflict has ended and the dust has settled, the US will be lucky to be a top 5 power. The incompetence and stark lack of intelligence (as in IQ), reasoning skills and strategic planning is so astounding that one assumes some multi-dimensional chess game is being played, but apparently not: it’s just what happens when a country whose number 1 virtue is greed is captured politically by the vilest degenerates. God, I’m going to be so sick of popcorn… 🎥 🍿
One gets the sense that US has been running on military brand fumes since 1945.
The Special Military Operation in Ukraine has surely stimulated a lot of interest and study among US military people. This conflict will do even more. I suspect that it will tarnish the attractiveness of the service academies as preparation for careers in the Armed Forces.
I can’t help but remember Nixon’s substance-free Peace Plan of 1968 and the subsequent Christmas carpet bombing of Hanoi in 1972. It didn’t work. Nixon resigned under threat of impeachment less than two years later. And Americans were forced to flee Saigon in a panic in April, 1975. Trump learned nothing.
https://www.zinnedproject.org/news/tdih/christmas-bombing-of-vietnam/
also throw in Desert One (1979). can’t believe an entire generation of Dem./Rep. Boomer (nothing personal) politicans and pundits lived throw this all, and still learned f….amily logging nothing
AiPAC money is one heckuva drug
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=desert+one
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The Nation of Israel is in an existential war, both the genocide in Gaza and the wider regional war have the vociferous support of almost all Israeli’s.
As much as I’d like to see Netanyahu and the gang gone it would make no difference, the Israeli’s who can flee will flee, those that can’t will fight to the end.
The possible outcomes of this insanity range from very,very bad to horrific.
It’s going to get messy here in the USA as Trump continues to decline and lash out, his Big Beautiful Ballroom is now on hold and he will take that very personally.
Trump is a Narcissist, EVERYTHING is personal to a narcissist.
As anyone who has had an aging narcissistic parent with dementia will tell you, they maintain their enjoyment in being cruel to the bitter end.
Remember Trump burbling on about Iran giving him a big gift and everyone just assuming that’s his white matter losing ground? I think that was his inability to stay quiet and not crow about him and his family making the hundreds of millions on insider trading with his various flip flops. Duping delight at its finest.
Trump seems to want a way out. Combining Pezeshkian’s indicating Iran’s openness to negotiations and Araghchi’s comments to Al Jazeera about complete lack of trust makes me think they expect Trump to make some clear gesture in public. Tonight’s speech could be that. If DJT were planning another headfake I don’t think he would bother with the formality of a national address. Maybe he’ll make some reference to Easter to appeal to his Christian base…. Of course, a national address could also accompany a decision to send in the troops. A pretty binary option point.
Benedict Donald’s approval rating is pretty much relegated to evangs, why would he need to reassure them?
The Iranian president is not like a US president or European prime minister. The Iranian president is more like a US city manager, an executive with authority over a discrete set of issues. The Guardian Council is the “real” decider
I think that a national address would be pretty important to justify a decision to commit ground forces, the deficiencies in public communication prior to launching the war may have contributed to the public’s disapproval of it (though it’s hard to see how it could have been justified sufficiently convincingly to stimulate significant public buy-in).
It has been noted that DJT likes to keep options open. Ground intervention is a door that it may be hard to close, once opened. I hope that’s a strong consideration in the decision.