It still doesn’t look like there’s an AI bubble

Anthropic's annualized revenue doubled in just two months.
Last fall, a lot of people were worried about a possible AI bubble. AI companies were investing heavily in infrastructure because they expected huge demand for AI services in the coming years. For example, an internal OpenAI document last fall projected that revenue would more than double — from $13 billion in 2025 to $30 billion in 2026. Around the same time, Anthropic expected revenue to triple from $4.7 billion in 2025 to more than $15 billion in 2026.
Skeptics didn’t believe companies this large could grow so quickly. But the last few months haven’t gone the way they expected.
Anthropic has posted particularly strong revenue numbers. The company exited 2025 generating revenue at a $9 billion annualized rate. In February, the company announced that its annualized revenue had reached $14 billion. A few weeks after that, Bloomberg reported that Anthropic’s annualized revenue had soared to $19 billion.
These are annualized figures, so Anthropic hasn’t actually earned $19 billion yet this year. (Roughly speaking, annualized revenue is monthly revenue multiplied by 12.) But if customers continue spending at the same rate, Anthropic will easily surpass $15 billion in revenue for 2026. And if revenue continues rising (as seems likely), Anthropic will take in far more than $15 billion this year.
Other AI companies have not enjoyed the same meteoric growth as Anthropic, but demand for AI services has been healthy across the industry.
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Facts Only

Anthropic's annualized revenue doubled from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $19 billion by early 2026.
OpenAI projected revenue growth from $13 billion in 2025 to $30 billion in 2026.
Anthropic projected revenue growth from $4.7 billion in 2025 to over $15 billion in 2026.
Skeptics questioned the feasibility of such rapid growth.
Anthropic's annualized revenue reached $14 billion in February 2026.
Bloomberg reported Anthropic's annualized revenue at $19 billion shortly after.
Annualized revenue figures are based on monthly revenue multiplied by 12.
Other AI companies have not matched Anthropic's growth but are seeing healthy demand.
The AI industry is experiencing strong demand for services overall.
Revenue projections are based on current spending trends continuing.

Executive Summary

Concerns about an AI bubble emerged last fall as companies like OpenAI and Anthropic projected rapid revenue growth, with OpenAI forecasting a jump from $13 billion in 2025 to $30 billion in 2026, and Anthropic expecting revenue to triple from $4.7 billion to over $15 billion in the same period. Skeptics doubted such growth was sustainable. However, recent data suggests strong demand, particularly for Anthropic, which saw its annualized revenue double from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $19 billion by early 2026. While not all AI companies are experiencing the same surge, the industry as a whole is seeing healthy demand for AI services. These figures are annualized, meaning they reflect current spending rates extrapolated over a year, but if trends continue, Anthropic is on track to exceed its earlier projections. The broader AI sector appears resilient, though growth varies across companies.

Full Take

The narrative presents a compelling case for AI's continued growth, with Anthropic's revenue surge serving as a strong counterpoint to earlier bubble concerns. The strongest version of this argument highlights tangible financial metrics—doubling annualized revenue in months—and contrasts it with skepticism that now appears premature. However, the use of annualized figures, which extrapolate short-term trends into full-year projections, introduces a potential distortion. While not inherently misleading, this framing could exaggerate stability, as it assumes current spending rates will persist without fluctuation. The focus on Anthropic's success, while acknowledging broader industry trends, risks creating a false equivalence—suggesting uniform growth when the article itself notes variability among companies.
Root cause: The underlying paradigm here is the tension between hype and reality in emerging technologies. The AI industry's rapid scaling relies on assumptions of sustained demand, but the article doesn't explore potential risks—such as market saturation, regulatory hurdles, or shifting consumer behavior—that could disrupt these projections. The narrative echoes historical tech booms where early adopters' success was mistaken for industry-wide inevitability.
Implications: If growth continues, AI companies will consolidate power, potentially marginalizing smaller players. But if demand plateaus, overinvestment in infrastructure could lead to waste. Human agency is at stake in how these technologies are deployed—will they empower users or entrench corporate control?
Bridge questions: What external factors (e.g., regulation, economic shifts) could alter these trajectories? How representative is Anthropic's growth of the broader AI ecosystem? Would evidence of stagnation in other sectors change the assessment of an AI bubble?
Counterstrike scan: A coordinated influence campaign might cherry-pick outliers like Anthropic to paint an overly optimistic picture, downplaying risks. However, the article acknowledges variability in growth and avoids universal claims, so it doesn't align with a manipulative playbook.
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