Balance of trade data is a key component of GDP. It’s temporarily suspended.
We are still having serious delays with reports long after the government shutdown ended. Trade reports are hugely lagging.
I went to update my charts today on advance trade data but no go.
Grok created the lead graphic for me. Thanks Grok. That explains the word change on the lead chart from your to my.
I am closely following trade data because I think March, and perhaps February will be disasters.
January Trade Data
My view is that January trade data, especially imports, were weak because importers held back waiting for the Supreme Court tariff decision.
On February 20, the Supreme Court ruled against Trump. Then the International Trade Court mandated refunds.
I now expect a surge in imports reversing the January numbers.
Given typical 20–36 day ocean transit + clearance, the real “mad rush” import catch up lands mostly in March data.
This Friday, we see advance trade numbers for February. Nothing will surprise me here. But GDPNow will not use that number
On April 1, we have the full international trade data that GDPNow will look at. That data is for February. So take any GDPNow change on April 1 with a big dose of salt.
I expect the full brunt of imports to hit in March with perhaps a bit of spillover into April. Thus, I expect GDPNow to be skewed on the high side until the full March trade data release.
For discussion and graphs, please see GDPNow First Quarter GDP Estimate Sinks to 2.0 Percent. Still Too High?
Will imports be dampened somewhat by the Hormuz strait being closed?
Oil over $100 now will certainly do it.
What is Trump going to say at 3:55pm EST to spike da ma-kets?
Whatever it is, it will be like nobody has ever seen.
And nobody believes.
I read where Joe Biden was quoted as saying, “thank goodness for trump.”
They called him Sleepy Joe because you could sleep at night when he was president.
You choose:
1) Trump admin isn’t competent enough to provide these standard reports
2) They have not made up the fake numbers to their satisfaction, we’ll get the report when the ink of their lies dries
they sure are competent enough to do this: Trump State Dept. Accused of ‘Largest Fee Fraud in History’ of US Immigration System
An immigration researcher at the Cato Institute found that the Trump administration is “raking in billions of dollars in immigration fees and not providing the adjudications that applicants are entitled to.”
https://www.commondreams.org/news/immigration-fee-fraud-state-dept
FBI director (of all people) using a Gmail account?…that’s what happens when you hire low IQ individuals
BREAKING: DOJ Confirms Iran-Backed Hackers Have Breached FBI Director Kash Patel’s Personal Email, Are Publishing His Private Photos and Documents
jimmy dore has amazing Patel voice impersonations .
listen if you did not!! google tube
hilarious as shi11t
Kash, the poor man’s Pete Kegsbreath
Temu Kegsbreath
Patel was using a non-government account, presumably to avoid having to disclose information in response to FOIA suits or otherwise having to comply with law.
Same reason HRC was using the infamous “bathroom server”.
The cabinet fits neatly on a short bus.
Guess what time it is goys? Yep, time to head to Lebanon, out “Greatest Ally” ™ is getting tired.
Israeli Defense Forces Chief: IDF Could Collapse Due to Lack of Manpower
they lie!
all military man lie!
Except for Putin, right? LOL
is there putun in the room right now? or in your head
seek doctor, you need one
I don’t need to see any trade data.
WTI at $98.65
Brent at $111.46
10 Year at 4.414
and Trump at IQ 52 tells me everything I need to know!
We are well on our way to the Trumpocolypse™ right on schedule.
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
That’s good enough for me…
…sell Mortimer, SELL
we are already past that moment
now it is
======
F11uck him! Now, you listen to me! I want trading reopened right now! Get those brokers back in here! Turn those machines back on!”
===
and trump is having heart attack.
YOU FORGOT MOST important!
1 year USA gov deficit as today is $2.8 trln
debt is 39 trln
and USA wants put boots on ground in iran.
The most important is the demographic death spiral this country has and the 80m geezers suckling at the government teat. Sending off young people to die in a pointless war will exacerbate the problem.
=80m geezers suckling at the government teat.
they paid taxes all life!
do you really live in USA,? or just blathers bu11llshit?
“The federal deficit for the fiscal year 2025 totaled approximately $1.8 trillion, which was a decrease of about $50 billion from the previous year.”
I don’t think the $2.8 trillion even factors in the tariff refunds. So after all Trump’s cuts to try to save money, he winds up spending a trillion above last fiscal year.
“The federal deficit for the fiscal year 2025 totaled approximately $1.8 trillion, which was a decrease of about $50 billion from the previous year.”
===
obv you have no idea about macroeconomics in USA
fiscal year 2025 ended on nov 1 of 2025.
now it is 2026 fiscal year!
=====
you are using grok or something ! which is based on monthly reporting of USA gov, which is fake!
dont ask me why. too long to explain
you just need to google “debt to penny”,
and compare debt today and 1 year ago
it is 2th grade math operation. called subtraction.
TRY ONE!
Steven Miran still voting for cuts at every meeting
It’s filed under the epstien File. Do not open till 2525
You transposed the first two digits
Banana Republic here we come!
Facts Only
The U.S. government has delayed the release of trade data, which is essential for GDP calculations.
The Supreme Court ruled against Trump on tariffs on February 20, 2025, leading to mandated refunds.
January trade data showed weak imports, attributed to importers waiting for the tariff decision.
A surge in imports is expected in March due to a 20–36 day ocean transit and clearance period.
Advance trade numbers for February are due this Friday, but GDPNow will not use this data.
Full February trade data will be released on April 1, which GDPNow will incorporate.
Oil prices are high, with WTI at $98.65 and Brent at $111.46.
The U.S. national debt is reported at $39 trillion, with a $2.8 trillion deficit.
FBI Director Kash Patel's personal email was breached by Iran-backed hackers, with private documents published.
The Trump administration is accused of mismanaging immigration fees, collecting billions without providing adjudications.
The article mentions geopolitical tensions, including potential U.S. military involvement in Iran and concerns about Israel's military manpower.
Executive Summary
Full Take
The strongest version of this narrative highlights legitimate concerns about delayed economic data and its implications for GDP accuracy, coupled with geopolitical and fiscal instability. The author effectively ties trade data delays to broader economic uncertainties, such as rising oil prices and potential conflicts, which could disrupt global supply chains. However, the piece also employs emotional exploitation (ARC-0012) and distortion (ARC-0024) by framing the Trump administration's actions as either incompetent or malicious without definitive evidence. The use of hyperbolic language ("Trumpocolypse™") and personal attacks ("IQ 52") undermines the credibility of the economic analysis.
The root cause appears to be a paradigm of distrust in government institutions, particularly under Trump, combined with fears of economic and geopolitical collapse. The narrative assumes that delayed data is either due to incompetence or deliberate manipulation, without considering other possibilities like bureaucratic inefficiency or technical challenges. Historically, this echoes patterns of partisan polarization where economic data becomes weaponized to support political narratives.
The implications for human agency are significant: if trade data is unreliable, businesses and policymakers may make poor decisions, exacerbating economic instability. The costs are borne by taxpayers and consumers, while the benefits of this narrative likely accrue to those seeking to discredit the Trump administration or push for alternative policies. Second-order consequences could include eroded trust in economic reporting and heightened market volatility.
Bridge questions: What alternative explanations exist for the delays in trade data? How might geopolitical tensions in the Hormuz Strait specifically impact U.S. trade beyond oil prices? What evidence would change your assessment of the Trump administration's role in these delays?
Counterstrike scan: If this were part of a coordinated influence campaign, the playbook would involve amplifying distrust in government data, using emotional triggers to polarize audiences, and framing economic issues as existential threats. The actual content partially aligns with this pattern, particularly in its use of provocative language and selective framing of facts. However, the inclusion of verifiable data points (e.g., oil prices, court rulings) suggests it is not purely manipulative. The most concerning element is the blend of factual reporting with overtly partisan rhetoric, which could be exploited to deepen divisions.
Patterns detected: ARC-0012 Emotional Exploitation, ARC-0024 Distortion