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US and Israel deception and duplicity continue as Trump fabricates that peace is about to bust out all over. It’s been well covered in the press, and some of the video segments below provide more color, that after Trump extended his own deadline for obliterating Iran’s power plants unless they opened the Strait of Hormuz by five days, he then brayed that the Iranians were talking to the Administration and almost all issues were resolved. Not only did the Iranians clear their throats and say they still in radio silence mode but the fact that Trump kept talking about Witkoff and Kushner was an additional tell that Trump was again fabricating. Not only is Iran not willing to negotiate with a congenitally untrustworthy tag team of the US and Israel, but if I were Iran, the very last people I’d ever want to deal with again would be these particular con artists.1
But the problem is not merely that a five day pause accomplished nothing save for giving Trump opportunity to talk Mr. Market into a more cheery mood (and give insiders the chance to again make big bucks on advance notice). But even that is starting to erode, as the current BBC live blog banner headline attests (as of 6:00 AM EDT):
The fundamentals keep getting worse as Trump dithers. The slow bleeding out of the global economy gets worse the longer Strait of Hormuz traffic remains throttled down to a meager level. The LNG cliff of the end of the Qatar supply is hitting in 10 days or so; the reverberations from that may shake investors out of their somnolence. Mind you, getting traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz won’t remedy that shortfall but it would at least reduce other pressure.
But it’s not just the real economy that is deteriorating. So too are the dynamics among the key actors. As he appears to yet again try to head-fake the Iranians with a micro-climbdown, the belligerents continued to play chicken with attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. Minute Monitor indicatedStrikes hit Iran energy sites in Isfahan, Khorramshahr that there was some doubt as to when the attack came<:
It remains unclear whether the attacks occurred before or after US President Donald Trump announced an extension of his ultimatum to Iran and instructed the Department of War not to target energy infrastructure.
Other reports were less equivocal:
The IRGC says US-Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian energy facilities, including the gas management building and a gas pressure reduction facility in Isfahan, and a gas pipeline feeding the Khorramshahr power plant. The IRGC vow to hit Israel (doing it NOW) and the Gulf power…
— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) March 24, 2026
Even if they fell short by design, this sort of thing reconfirms the utter untrustworthiness of the US/Israel side. At best, the US decided to test Iran’s red lines before pulling back a smidge.
As for what comes next, Larry Johnson argues the plan to land forces is moving ahead. From Looks Like Donald Trump is Serious About Puting US Boots on the Ground in Iran:
In my recent article — Boots on the Ground in Iran… A Deception or a Suicide Mission? — I was shocked by the lack of OPSEC (aka Operational Security) surrounding the deployment of the 31st and 11th MEUs (Marine Expeditionary Unit). Then there was the news that the 82nd Airborne had cancelled an upcoming exercise and also were being deployed to the Persian Gulf as well. Why advertise that you are sending an amphibious force and an airborne unit to the Persian Gulf…? I speculated that publicizing the movement of these units could be a deception operation…Based on Donald Trump’s statements today, coupled with new information provided by OSINT Defender and The Intel Frog, it appears that Trump has ordered a ground operation inside Iran that could begin as early as Friday…
He [Trump] stated that, based on the “in-depth, detailed, and constructive” nature of these talks (which he said would continue throughout the week), he had instructed the Department of Defense (“Department of War”) to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period…
The Iranian government wasted no time in denying Trump’s claim. Iran has zero interest in working out a negotiated settlement to the war on terms demanded by Trump…
The first clue came from Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period. Why five-days? The 31st MEU will be in place in the Arabian Sea, ready for action. I want to remind you that the MEU received its deployment order on March 13… Remember that date. I then learned late on Monday that Trump cancelled his appearance at CPAC this weekend and that he will not attend a fundraiser at Mar a Lago on Friday night…
Then I saw this X-post by the IntelFrog:
A significant movement is underway from US Army, Navy and Air Force bases in CONUS to the Middle East comprised of at least 35 C-17 flights since March 12th, with 11 more flights on the way.
Origins:
12-Hunter Army Air Field/Fort Stewart, GA
8-Unknown
7-JB Lewis-McChord, WA
6-Pope Army Air Field/Fort Bragg, NC
4-Campbell Army Airfield/Fort Campbell, KY
4-Gray Army Airfield/JB Lewis-McChord, WA
4-Naval Air Station Oceana, VA
1-MacDill AFB, FL
1-JB McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, NJ
Destinations:
17-Ovda Air Base, Israel
13-King Faisal Air Base, Jordan
4-King Hussein Int’l Airport, Jordan
When you Google the military units located at these airfields in the US, a pattern begins to emerge…[Johnson provides a great deal of detail but even on a skim, it is not hard to see that the Administration is assembling force from many units]
I do not know what is being planned, but the intense activity of at least 35 C-17 missions at these bases indicates a major Special Operations activity is in the works. The activity started on March 12 — one day before the 31st MEU was deployed. Coincidence? I don’t think so. If I can figure this out using only open source data, I have no doubt that the Iranians, the Russians and the Chinese are monitoring this activity as well…
I have not seen the claims in this tweet confirmed, but if they are correct, it looks like the belligerents are out to widen the war:
Absolute bombshell. General McMaster casually admits on live TV that the IDF is now striking Russian ships in the Caspian Sea and the US is blocking Chinese fuel shipments to Iran. They are literally trying to ignite World War 3 to protect Israel. pic.twitter.com/FLvlYgsSie
— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) March 23, 2026
Even as Trump is trying again to shore up his manhood, he seems to also be expanding his propaganda options by tarring Hegseth, which suggests that even Trump knows that his denialism bubble can’t keep the evidence of failure hidden. Reader Ann highlighted a New Republic story, Trump Throws Pete Hegseth Under the Bus as Iran War Spirals. Her favorite line: ““’egseth about to give his next briefing from under the bus,’ liberal podcaster Jon Favreau wrote on X.”
Netanyahu is also bringing out the blame cannons:
Trump and Netanyahu are desperately searching for scapegoats – while Trump called Hegseth indirectly yesterday – Bibi is now blaming Mossad for not forseeing Iran's resilience…
The war is lost at this point – any off ramp destroyed by multiple lies and deception.
Iran will…— — GEROMAN — time will tell – 👀 — (@GeromanAT) March 24, 2026
As the US is moving up the escalation ladder (a mer pause with a threat still in play with no sign at all that the US is softening its stance), experts warn of nuclear war risk. I cannot embed YouTube shorts, but John Mearsheimer argues that if Israel perceives that it is losing, and believes Iran is even more hostile than before due to damage and deaths inflicted, it will have incentives to attack Iran with nuclear weapons.
Even though we along with many others have pointed out that Iran is reported to have a dead hand capability (as in would unleash missiles and drones across the Middle East and destroy Israel’s critical infrastructure and Gulf oil production), Ted Postol, in a must-watch video, explains long-form how Iran could in a not very long time build 10 or 11 low-yield nuclear bombs pretty quickly from the enriched uranium it has and gave a very detailed and sobering description of what would result if they used three on the Tel Aviv environs:
Postol also has a good, short discussion at the top of how air defense systems are a con (at best, they are limited in what they can do) and Israel’s are no longer effective.
Colonel Wilkerson makes some deservedly acid observations about the lack of a US strategy as well as nuclear war risk:
Mind you, Israel is plenty fragile so I am not sure Iran would take the time and bother of hitting back with a nuclear weapon sinc they can easily ruin Israel by entirely conventional means. For instance:
Shaul Goldstein, CEO of Noga Energy, which serves as the independent system operator for Israel’s electricity grid:
A power outage lasting 72 hours in Israel would render life impossible here. pic.twitter.com/pUZYrh3Wsc— IRNA News Agency ☫ (@IrnaEnglish) March 23, 2026
But Postol’s graphic discussion of what an attack with merely three low-yield nuclear bombs would do to Israel is likely important by focusing a few mines.
Professor Sayed Marandi confirms with Daniel Davis that Iran has not been in direct or indirect contact with the US, and is sticking to its demands, which if you have been following them over time, seem to be increasing, such as the fresh one that Gulf states divest their Treasuries. Davis seemed incredulous that Iran was asking for reparations and prodded Marandi, that some of these asks were presumably negotiating chips that Iran would bargain away. Marandi maintained that Iran was prepared to fight a long war and recognized it needed to establish new facts on the ground.
Professor Marandi also confirmed that the UAE and other Gulf states are moving even closer to the US…as if they were not already joined at the hip. If you listen to Aljazeera or other mainstream outlets covering the conflict, they regularly report on the bleatings of officials in these countries, that they are not supporting the US and it is so unfair that they are being targeted.
Since Marandi spoke to Davis, there have been reports of some attempts at outreach, such as this tidbit from Democracy Docket, U.S. sent Iran a message through mediators as Trump signals he’s open to a deal, Iranian official says (hat tip reader Ann). But even calling this a feeler sounds generous. A fair bit of this is likely to amount to particularly afflicted states pleading for peace on their own as well as trying to get some communication going to facilitate that.
Aljazeera provided a weak-tea report of the same type. At the top, the presenter says, there are “signs of a diplomatic channel opening” with Iranian foreign minister Araghchi in contact with officials in Egypt, Pakistan, and admittedly the former mediating state, Oman.
The Wall Street Journal reported on what anyone with an operating brain cell should have worked out by now, that the US is indeed using operations in these states to prosecute the war. The subhead of the piece, The Land-Based Missiles That Are Crucial to America’s Air War on Iran<,/a> makes clear the GCC members are complicit: “The weapons add a new dimension to U.S. attack and raise the possibility that Gulf allies are launch points” ” From the story proper:
In the opening hours of the war, the U.S. fired ballistic missiles that streaked high over the Persian Gulf and slammed into targets in Iran, the first use of the Army’s two-year-old highly accurate missiles in combat….
The short-range missiles can travel 200 to 300 miles, meaning they likely were fired from the territory of Persian Gulf countries that have taken the brunt of Iranian drone and missile attacks. None has admitted to allowing its land or airspace to be used to attack Iran.
Gulf countries that allow their territory to be used to fire the missiles are walking a careful line between aiding the U.S. militarily while publicly insisting they are seeking to keep out of the fight.
“If the Americans could show them a way to finish off the regime, then they would be more likely to take risks in terms of openly siding against the regime than they are today,” said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. “At the same time, they aren’t going to say no to the U.S. in the midst of a shooting war.”
These family dictatorships have also been pounding their feet and saying they will man up too to go after Iran. Middle East Eye reports, The Gulf countries may retaliate if Iran attacks continue, Turkey says Middle East Eye. resilc observed: “This is the most laughable threat in the history of war…..”
And the Gulf States continue to cling to Trump even as he attempts to extort them. Rev Kev linked to this article in The Cradle US demands trillions in ‘war ransom’ from GCC allies: Report
US President Donald Trump is trying to extort Gulf allies for trillions of dollars to wage a war on Iran, allegedly on their behalf, according to an Omani journalist speaking to BBC Arabic on 20 March.
The BBC presenter asked Omani journalist and international affairs researcher Salem Al-Jahouri to comment on reports that the White House was “putting pressure” on Gulf states to participate more broadly in the war against Iran.
“This is absolutely true. The Gulf Cooperation Council states are facing pressure, both military and financial pressure,” Jahouri responded.
“Today we are talking about certain leaks in which the American president is demanding that the GCC states pay approximately $5 trillion if they want this war to continue, and if they want it to stop, they must pay $2.5 trillion to the United States for what has been accomplished over the past period,” Jahouri stressed.
Mind you, the GCC countries’ pleading may have stayed Trump’s hand for the moment (see for instance France 24,
Trump U-turn on Hormuz could be due to ‘pressure’ from Gulf nations) but a prospective market freakout looks like the more powerful factor.
Has no one heard the Nassim Nicholas Taleb warning, that the turkey has the greatest confidence that the farmer is his friend the day before his slaughter, because that is when he has the most observations of being plumped up by him?
Schadenfreude aside, the further solidification of the loyalty of these oil baronies to the US is yet another reason this conflict is unlikely to end any time soon. As we said before, one possible path out was if Iran could peel any of them off to make a separate peace, as in be left alone if they kicked the American military out, professed neutrality, and agreed to pay a toll to transit the Strait as a way to pay reparations. Instead, they are subjecting themselves to a test to destruction. With small very wealthy elites dependent on a mix of native underclasses and (generally badly treated) guest workers, their position is fragile. How much in the way of increased energy costs, much higher food casts, shortages, and the specter of what the lower orders will see as a war that hurts them most of all, will it take to foment Arab Spring type revolts?
And what does Iran do when these statelets come apart? That oil infrastructure is very valuable. Does it seize it (as in is an occupation conceivable given the size and structure of the Iranian military?) Or does it reach an understanding with the upstarts that have overthrown these kings and princes and let them keep their energy wealth if they play nicely with Iran?
Various sightings on the kinetic war front:
Hindustan Times reports on more damage in Iran…
….even as it points to more evidence of Iran opening a wider lead in its dominance over US operations in the region:
Similarly:
Satellite footage from the Ali al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait shows the precision destruction of a drone hangar and a satellite communication antenna. The Resistance has paralyzed the U.S. drone surveillance grid and its ability to relay real-time intelligence across the region. The… pic.twitter.com/4ICPJHQ9tH
— Thomas Keith (@iwasnevrhere_) March 23, 2026
Keep in mind, however, as former Royal Navy officer Steven Jermy pointed out on YouTube, the US still has a surveillance backup to its THAAD and other radars, which is AWACS planes. But Jermy pointed out they’d need to be aloft 24/7, and that these planes are already old and are being pushed mighty hard.
Anadolu Agency confirms that Iran is still doing real damage to Israel in Smoke rises over Tel Aviv after Iranian missile strikes on Israel
The aforementioned Gulf states are taking more punches:
On the economic front, briefly. The press is giving more attention to the serious and mounting real economy harms of this conflict. Here, the Financial Times fixates on food. This information is likely familiar to readers here but perhaps not enough to those of the pink paper. From Hormuz fertiliser block will upend world’s food production:
Gulf states account for 49 per cent of globally traded urea and 30 per cent of ammonia, perishable contributors to the nitrogen cycle that makes high-yield agriculture possible. When that supply chain stops, the effects accumulate quietly in soil chemistry and planting decisions over the months that follow….
he agricultural damage clock runs in weeks. Winter wheat across the US, Europe and parts of the Middle East needs its final nitrogen application in the next three to four weeks.
The food security clock runs in months. Most import-dependent nations carry enough grain reserves to absorb a short disruption, not enough to outlast a season. The Horn of Africa is already on the edge of famine. This pushes it over.
Finally, the geopolitical clock runs in years. Food price spikes above 30 to 40 per cent have a documented correlation with political instability in fragile states within six to 18 months of the price trigger.
And from Bloomberg, The Iran Energy Price Shock Is Getting Very Real in Europe:
• The war in Iran is turning into an energy shock for Europe, with the EU’s economic growth pointing downward and inflation upward.
• The European Union’s leaders are turning to alternative sources, such as Algeria, and announcing consumer support packages to address the energy crisis.
• The EU’s economy is weaker than in 2022, with finances of core countries fragile, and the longer the Iran conflict lasts, the higher the bill for pricier energy imports into Europe.
And Iran is making out very well from the war:
Energy industry insider in Iran tells me the following, and it is STUNNING:
Before the war, Iran produced just shy of 1.1mn barrels of oil per day, and sold it at $65 per barrel minus $18 discount (i.e. $47)
Today, it produces 1.5mn barrels a day, and sells it at $110 with…
— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) March 23, 2026
All for now! See you tomorrow!
____
1 Witkoff being a procedural messenger-boy would not count.
Chabahar (SE Iran) is right next to the route that Alexander the Great took on the Greeks’return from the Indus valley.
the area is inhospitable (at modern-levels) without modern infrastructure/constant supply. perfect place for our western “Powerpoint culture”, detached from reality, to wreck itself. as on a Powerpoint slide, it tempts, like a siren, as the new Gibraltar or Gitmo
Ted Postol’s musings about the potential for Iran to make nukes and devastate Israel (triggering tender Western sympathies) should carry a disclaimer: by all accounts, Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon and was willing to make a deal that would ensure that it never would.
As readers know: the Epstein Regime rejected that deal, choosing to gamble on a surprise decapitation strike in the midst of peace talks. Then Trump bragged that he and Netanyahu “did the world a favor” when Iranian outrage rained down on the middle-east.
While you have made some helpful observations before, I take umbrage at comments that mislead readers and force me to waste time better spent on new posts cleaning up informational messes.
Yours above is way off base and an insult to Postol.
Had you bothered to listen to his talk attentively (or at all?), as opposed to straw manning him, Postol early on goes on at some length that Iran had not wanted a nuke, the JCPOA was severely constraining and effective in preventing its development. They were promised sanctions relief that they never got in return.
Postol also VERY clearly depicted Iran as not having a nuclear weapon but that they could in a not specified amount of time create 10 to 12 low yield bombs from the enriched uranium they have.
Iran also – presumably – has a lot of depleted uranium, which burns like hell and creates a lasting toxic mess when used in munitions. I haven’t heard much about that.
‘Davis seemed incredulous that Iran was asking for reparations and prodded Marandi, that some of these asks were presumably negotiating chips that Iran would bargain away.’
Davis is usually levelheaded but when does on country demolish another country’s infrastructure and then gets to walk away with no consequences. That only happens if that country wins but this is not the case here. Somebody is going to have to pay to rebuild what has been destroyed in Iran so Iran may accept a revenue stream from ship’s passage through the Strait of Hormuz instead of reparations. Why not? That happens with the Panama Canal as well as the Suez Canal. Somebody pointed out that Canada and the US also charge for passage as well in their near waters. Again, somebody is going to have to pay to rebuild all the damage in Iran so some sort of arrangement will be necessary to help end this war.
Regarding AWACS planes: https://www.itamilradar.com/2026/03/23/us-navy-e-2d-hawkeyes-stage-at-aviano-en-route-to-the-gulf/
Doubt if the GCC militaries will really be up for this, since their combat role would appear to be missile sponge.
Funny that. Reminds one of an old Seinfeld quip :
“Are they sponge-worthy ?” Seems they very well are.
About 15 years ago I looked into how secure the West Coast electrical grid was, as well as how secure the water distribution system was in California..
It isn’t, they aren’t, and it is common knowledge.
“Homeland Security” has done nothing to improve the security of America’s critical infrastructure, it is wide open.
I would expect the attack to target Khuzestan–Iranian oil fields. It is in the northern end of the Persian Gulf, next to Iraq. That’s where Saddam attacked. It has a large Arab population. And much of it is fairly flat. Easy, right?
Then consider that the population, though Arab, is largely Shia. And then there is the tiny problem that Iran knows exactly what the prize is (Saddam tried to get the oil, too) and has undoubtedly planned for the Western attempt to grab it.
No staging ground and no troops either–the units being talked about are soecial ops and light unfantry mostly, with fairly minimal logistics. They’ll never survive for more than half a day in Khuzestan, I should think. Whatever it might be, the plan would be for some James Bond type caper.
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I am pretty sure the GCC monarchies, with the exception of Oman, are going to be done after this war. We have every indication that Iran intends to dominate the wider region after this war and that is incompatible with the existence of GCC monarchies.
So next time riots break out in Bahrain or in the Eastern Saudi Arabia maybe Iran intervenes to protect the Shia population. How long will Saudi underclasses stay quiet when their state salaries are cut because Iran is charging billions of dollars a year in reparations and Hormuz tolls? These countries exist only because US security umbrella ensured that internal dissent could be suppressed.
Some MSMs
1. Why Iran’s Shahed cheap, deadly drones have done the U.S. a favor (WaPo, archived)
Basically saying what I said here a couple of weeks ago that this war will strongly benefit Palantir/Anduril as the defence procurement spigot gets rerouted into their gullets.
Among other things, we will surely (?) see a radical change in the US military when we get to the other side of this abject failure.
2.Trump’s Ultimatum to Iran Was Almost Up. Then He Found an Offramp. (NYT opinion, archived)
Round up of leaks and briefings which doesn’t really believe in itself. Has contradictory claims about communication with Araghi.
3.The secret talks pushing America and Iran towards peace (Telegraph)
This was my favourite as it starts with a breathless retelling of the secret talks then halfway through just gives up and starts calling it bs. It’s like the writer(s) just broke.
4. In their game of chicken, Trump and Iran tap the brakes at last (WaPo, archived)
Ignatius just phoning it in.
5. Netanyahu: Potential Iran deal touted by Trump would protect Israel’s ‘vital interests’ (Times of Israel)
Bibi with the desperate expectation management.
Israeli officials assess that if a deal is reached, it would be expected to align with Israel’s core war objectives, Channel 12 reported, quoting one source as saying that Trump “remembers who stood with him in battle.”
According to the news outlet, Israel is now working to ensure that the terms of a potential agreement will meet its demands, prioritizing an end to Iran’s nuclear program and strict limits on uranium enrichment. Regime change, the report said, is viewed as a less central goal, though Israel will likely claim to have created the necessary conditions for one.
Another source added that, as in the previous ceasefire deal with Iran, which ended the 12-day war in June 2025, Netanyahu is expected to be involved in shaping any final agreement to end this round of fighting.
At the same time, Israeli sources cautioned that a successful deal from Jerusalem’s perspective would effectively require Iran to surrender, with one source expressing skepticism that an agreement was currently within reach. And even if a deal was reached, the source said, there was doubt that Iran would even honor it.
BP: They are asking for exactly what Iran already offered before the war. They won’t get it. Bolded section is low-key hilarious.
US ground forces….
Special forces, airborne infantry, and a pair of USMC ARG’s….
Consider they may be used to prop up UAE or secure Riyadh. Or possibly help out in west Syria against PMC advances to oust US from Iraq.
About the C-17 flow, those with C-5 mostly haul materiel. The troops would be brought in with civil reserve AF passenger aircraft.
That said Trump could do a Churchill and reenact Gallipoli.
Thank you for your sobering documentation of the insanity in progress.