The complex relationship between anti-immigrant sentiment and exposure in the Netherlands

Physics > Physics and Society
[Submitted on 25 Aug 2026]
Title:The complex relationship between anti-immigrant sentiment and exposure in the Netherlands
View PDF HTML (experimental)Abstract:We study the relationship between exposure to immigrants and right-wing votes used as a proxy for anti-immigrant sentiment in the Netherlands. Exposure to immigrants is measured using a novel indicator, adapted from the residential segregation literature, applied to grid data available for the entire country at the aggregate level. Using the proxy of election results, we are able to study the entire voting population instead of a limited subset of panel respondents. In our cross-sectional study of the 2023 national election, we find that municipalities and neighbourhoods with greater exposure have less anti-immigrant sentiment. However, looking at the increase in right-wing vote share from the 2021 to the 2023 national elections, we find evidence of an ``overexposure effect'', as this relationship reverses, and the areas that saw significant increases in migrants subsequently experienced an increase in right-wing votes. Furthermore, we see that at high levels of exposure, wealth (and inequality) plays an important role in the voting dynamics, indicating that relative deprivation theory may play a role.
Submission history
From: Benedikt Meylahn [view email][v1] Tue, 25 Aug 2026 19:05:25 UTC (7,103 KB)
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Facts Only

* The study examines the relationship between exposure to immigrants and right-wing votes in the Netherlands.
* Exposure to immigrants was measured using an indicator adapted from residential segregation literature applied to aggregate grid data.
* Election results were used as a proxy for anti-immigrant sentiment.
* A cross-sectional study focused on the 2023 national election.
* Municipalities and neighborhoods with greater exposure had less anti-immigrant sentiment.
* An "overexposure effect" was found regarding the increase in right-wing vote share from 2021 to 2023, where increased migration areas subsequently saw increased right-wing votes.
* Wealth and inequality played an important role in voting dynamics at high exposure levels.

Executive Summary

A cross-sectional study of the 2023 national election in the Netherlands examined the relationship between exposure to immigrants and right-wing voting as a proxy for anti-immigrant sentiment. The research utilized an indicator for immigrant exposure adapted from residential segregation literature, applied to aggregate grid data. The initial analysis found that municipalities and neighborhoods with greater exposure to immigrants exhibited lower levels of anti-immigrant sentiment. However, examining the change in right-wing vote share between the 2021 and 2023 national elections revealed an "overexposure effect," where the relationship reversed: areas experiencing significant increases in migrants also saw corresponding increases in right-wing votes. Furthermore, at high levels of exposure, wealth and inequality were found to be important factors influencing voting dynamics, suggesting that relative deprivation theory may be relevant.

Full Take

The analysis presents a tension between static association and dynamic change regarding immigrant exposure and political alignment. The initial finding suggests a negative correlation: higher exposure correlates with lower anti-immigrant sentiment, aligning with some expectations regarding assimilation or integration dynamics. The crucial shift occurs when analyzing the temporal trend of right-wing voting, which introduces the "overexposure effect," suggesting that the mechanism linking exposure to political orientation is not linear but context-dependent and temporally sensitive. This reversal implies that changes in demographic composition (increased migration) may trigger different socio-economic responses (increased right-wing voting), possibly mediated by wealth distribution effects, aligning with relative deprivation theory. The implication for understanding anti-immigrant sentiment is that exposure alone is insufficient; the interplay between spatial context, economic disparity, and temporal shifts dictates political outcomes. Future inquiry should explore whether this effect holds across different types of exposure or other metrics of social cohesion.

Sentinel — Human

Confidence

This text exhibits characteristics consistent with rigorous academic research presentation, focusing on empirical relationships within a defined context rather than purely narrative persuasion.

Signals Detected

Sentence length variance is moderate; the structure appears academic and dense rather than purely mechanical.

The argument flows logically through the empirical observations (exposure -> sentiment, overexposure effect, role of wealth) without excessive hedging or mechanical transition.

No overtly verbatim talking points are detectable; the structure is that of a standard academic abstract/summary.

The terminology and focus (residential segregation, relative deprivation theory) align with established sociological research patterns, suggesting genuine academic engagement.

Human Indicators

The specific framing of an experimental study utilizing aggregate grid data for national election analysis suggests deep immersion in methodological requirements.

The introduction of specific theoretical frameworks (relative deprivation theory) into the findings, rather than simply stating correlation, points to reasoned analytical synthesis.