-
Click here to listen to this article - Share via
Summer travel will be more expensive and some airlines could go out of business as the war in Iran continues to drive oil prices up.
Airlines across the world have been grappling with higher jet fuel prices since the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran late last month. Customers are already facing higher fares.
United Airlines Chief Executive Scott Kirby said this week that his company could face an $11-billion loss if oil prices remain at their current levels. Meanwhile, United’s airfare could increase by 20%, he said.
With thin profit margins and oil prices hovering around $100 per barrel, airlines have no choice but to pass the increased costs onto consumers.
With the war in Iran restricting the oil market and sending prices up, U.S. customers will likely have to shell out more for airfare soon.
Some airlines might not survive the hit.
Kirby compared the situation to the pandemic in 2020, when a global shutdown squashed demand and travel.
“If these other guys make the same mistakes they made six years ago, and if the forecast about $175 per barrel is right, you’ll see airlines not survive,” he said Tuesday.
Budget airlines are at higher risk because they have razor-thin margins and rely on high customer volume, said Alan Fyall, an associate dean of the University of Central Florida Rosen College of Hospitality Management.
Spirit, the low-cost carrier that filed for its second bankruptcy last year, cut several routes earlier this month.
“They’re less resilient to these types of challenges,” Fyall said.
Spirit Airlines, after filing for bankruptcy twice in the last year, is pulling flight services from 12 cities across the country, including four in California.
The impact will vary by airline, he added. Many airlines hedge their fuel to negotiate a fixed price, and stock up on fuel while it’s less expensive.
United Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella said the company is ready to face instability.
“We’ve prepared for shocks to our industry, because they occur on a regular basis,” he said.
“Just like the gas stations have, we’ll have to adjust pricing to reflect our cost of fuel,” he said. “We feel really good about the future even as we go through this period of higher oil prices.”
Like gas for cars, jet fuel is more expensive in California.
Gas prices are on the rise amid U.S. conflict with Iran
Type A jet fuel cost $12.72 per gallon on Friday at Los Angeles International Airport, according to Atlantic Aviation. At Denver International Airport, the price was $9.73 per gallon, and at Miami International Airport, it was $11.73.
The average price of auto fuel in California on Friday was $5.84 per gallon, compared to a national average of $3.97, according to AAA.
The West Coast is a “fuel island” because it’s not connected by pipelines to the rest of the country, Kirby said, meaning all oil and refined products have to be brought in by ships.
“Fuel price is more susceptible to supply weakness on the West Coast than anywhere else in the country,” Kirby said in an interview. “Prices are almost certainly going to be higher.”
President Trump has maintained a flippant, casual tone since the Iran war began a month ago, a vast departure from past wartime presidents.
Some flight routes in California from hubs such as San José and Burbank could become unavailable as airlines look to save money.
“Airlines will refuel where they can, at the cheapest source,” Fyall said. That could lead companies to avoid filling up in California when possible.
As the global conflict continues and the industry braces itself for even higher fuel prices, United unveiled a new product this week that it hopes will help boost demand.
The United Relax Row, which launches next year, turns a row of economy seats into lie-flat space ideal for families with small children.
Even as ticket prices increase, “there’s a good percentage of the market prepared to pay for elevated experience and elevated comfort,” Fyall said.
Facts Only
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby stated the company could face an $11 billion loss if oil prices remain at current levels.
United’s airfare could increase by 20% due to rising oil prices.
Oil prices are hovering around $100 per barrel.
The conflict involving Iran is restricting the oil market and driving prices up.
Spirit Airlines, a budget carrier, filed for bankruptcy twice in the last year and has cut routes from 12 cities, including four in California.
Jet fuel prices at Los Angeles International Airport were $12.72 per gallon, compared to $9.73 in Denver and $11.73 in Miami.
California’s average gas price was $5.84 per gallon, higher than the national average of $3.97.
United Airlines introduced the "United Relax Row," a new product turning economy seats into lie-flat space, set to launch next year.
The West Coast is described as a "fuel island" due to its lack of pipeline connections, making fuel prices more volatile.
Airlines may avoid refueling in California to save costs.
United’s Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella stated the company is prepared for industry shocks.
Executive Summary
Rising oil prices, driven by the ongoing conflict involving Iran, are significantly impacting the airline industry. Airlines like United are facing potential losses in the billions, with airfares expected to increase by up to 20%. Budget carriers, such as Spirit Airlines, are particularly vulnerable due to their thin profit margins, leading to route cuts and financial strain. Jet fuel prices vary by region, with California experiencing higher costs due to its isolation from national fuel pipelines. United Airlines is preparing for instability by adjusting pricing and introducing new products to maintain demand. The situation echoes past crises like the 2020 pandemic, with industry experts warning that some airlines may not survive if oil prices continue to climb.
The conflict has also led to higher gas prices, particularly in California, where fuel costs are already elevated. Airlines are likely to avoid refueling in high-cost regions, potentially reducing flight availability. While some airlines have hedged fuel prices to mitigate risks, the overall industry faces significant challenges. The long-term impact remains uncertain, but the immediate effect is higher travel costs for consumers and financial pressure on airlines, especially those with limited resources.
Full Take
The strongest version of this narrative highlights the direct economic impact of geopolitical conflict on consumer travel costs and airline viability. The article credibly connects rising oil prices to airline financial strain, supported by specific examples like United’s potential losses and Spirit’s route cuts. It also provides regional context, such as California’s higher fuel costs due to logistical constraints. However, the framing leans heavily on fear appeals—suggesting airlines "might not survive" and invoking the 2020 pandemic—without sufficient counterbalance. The focus on consumer pain points (higher fares, route reductions) could amplify anxiety without exploring mitigating factors, such as long-term industry resilience or alternative energy solutions.
Patterns detected: ARC-0024 Ambiguity (vague warnings of airline collapses without concrete thresholds), ARC-0043 Motte-and-Bailey (broad claims about industry instability paired with narrow examples).
The root cause paradigm assumes oil price volatility is the primary driver of airline instability, but it overlooks structural issues like airline debt loads, labor costs, or regulatory environments. The historical echo of the 2020 pandemic is apt but risks oversimplifying—today’s challenges are supply-driven (oil prices) rather than demand-driven (travel bans). The narrative benefits oil producers and hedged airlines while burdening consumers and budget carriers. Second-order consequences could include reduced travel accessibility, regional economic strain (e.g., California tourism), and accelerated airline consolidation.
Bridge questions: How might airlines adapt beyond price hikes (e.g., fuel efficiency, alternative routes)? What role could government policy play in stabilizing fuel markets? Would a prolonged conflict reshape the airline industry’s competitive landscape?
Counterstrike scan: A coordinated influence campaign would exaggerate airline collapses to pressure policymakers into energy subsidies or military de-escalation. The article’s tone aligns with this playbook by emphasizing systemic fragility, but it stops short of outright manipulation. The focus on consumer impact is genuine, though the lack of broader context could be exploited by bad actors.
Sentinel — Human
The article appears to be written by a human journalist, showing signs of sentence length variance, idiosyncratic emphasis, and non-template argumentative structure.