Cosco returns to Red Sea sailings, despite threats from Houthis

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ZIM: WORST PERFORMER DHL: CHINA INVESTMENTGM: BACKING OFF EV RISKEXPD: CASHING INAAPL: SUPPLY CHAIN HURDLESMAERSK: NON-CORE DIVESTMENTZIM: HAPAG DEAL BASE CASE ZIM: HAPAG DEAL HANGS IN BALANCECHRW: BEATEN UPDHL: 'STRONG VOLUME BUT STRETCHED VALUATION' MAERSK: AHEAD OF EARNINGS FWRD: SIGH OF RELIEF
ZIM: WORST PERFORMER DHL: CHINA INVESTMENTGM: BACKING OFF EV RISKEXPD: CASHING INAAPL: SUPPLY CHAIN HURDLESMAERSK: NON-CORE DIVESTMENTZIM: HAPAG DEAL BASE CASE ZIM: HAPAG DEAL HANGS IN BALANCECHRW: BEATEN UPDHL: 'STRONG VOLUME BUT STRETCHED VALUATION' MAERSK: AHEAD OF EARNINGS FWRD: SIGH OF RELIEF
Bookings are back on for Cosco Red Sea services, the Chinese carrier set to operate a Far East-Red Sea rotation that will see vessels cross the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, despite Iran-backed Yemeni rebel group the Houthis attacking ships in the strait.
The decision by Cosco to commence Red Sea sailings continues what Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen described as “the slow normalisation of the Suez-route”, on the back of CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and Maersk all adding capacity to the routing.
Linerlytica’s Monday Market Pulse noted: “Traffic on Bab el Mandeb continues to increase, with CMA CGM and Maersk pushing three more services back to the Suez route as they continue to defy the threat of Houthi attacks.
“These moves are aimed at combating the shortage of vessels and container equipment made worse by protracted port congestion across North Asia and Europe,” it added, noting Cosco already had more than 20 ships of 2,700-3,600 teu deployed on Mediterranean/Red Sea routes.
And with yet another storm battering North Asia, Typhoon Dolphin, capacity is only expected to tighten, with more than 2.4m teu already stranded by the shutdown of port operations at Ningbo and Shanghai between 7 and 8 August, and the spread of congestion to Southern China.
Best guess forecasts appear to indicate that clearing the backlog of vessels will take weeks, but given that Typhoon Dolphin is the third and strongest tropical storm to hit the region, seeing more than a million people evacuated, it could take longer.
Sources told The Loadstar the decision to route through the Red Sea, particularly given renewed Houthi threats to strike commercial shipping in response to the US/Israeli war against Iran, was “risky”.
Acknowledging that the Houthis remain “the wildcard”, Mr Jensen said: “It appears clear for now their embargo on Saudi shipping is focused on the oil tanker business,” offering something of a respite for box ships that have largely been shut out of the waterway for three years.
Meanwhile, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have upped their game, with their Gemini AE19/SE4 Asia-Mediterranean service switching to a Red Sea routing, joining the AE15/SE3, which switched in July.
“This gradual normalisation is in addition to CMA CGM which already operates quite a few vessels on multiple services using the Suez routing, and Cosco/OOCL which will now begin a Far East-Red Sea service also crossing Bab el-Mandeb,” Mr Jensen noted.
“The CMA CGM services with some, or all, vessels operated on Asia-Europe via Suez are EPIC, FAL-1, FAL-3, OCR, MEDEX, MEX and BEX2, some of which are also Ocean Alliance services.”
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Comment on this article

* Cosco is booking Red Sea services for a Far East-Red Sea rotation.
* The rotation involves vessels crossing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
* CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and Maersk are adding capacity to the Suez route.
* Traffic on the Bab el Mandeb continues to increase due to these maneuvers.
* Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd switched their Gemini AE19/SE4 Asia-Mediterranean service to a Red Sea routing.
* CMA CGM operates multiple services using the Suez routing, including EPIC, FAL-1, FAL-3, OCR, MEDEX, MEX, and BEX2.
* Typhoon Dolphin caused port shutdowns at Ningbo and Shanghai between August 7 and 8.
* Over 2.4 million TEU were stranded due to port shutdowns in North Asia.
* Cosco already deployed more than 20 ships of 2,700-3,600 TEU on Mediterranean/Red Sea routes.

Cosco is initiating Red Sea services for Far East-Red Sea rotation, allowing vessels to cross the Bab el-Mandeb Strait despite Houthi attacks. This move is part of a broader trend where carriers like CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and Maersk are adding capacity to the Suez route to counter vessel shortages exacerbated by congestion in North Asia and Europe. Linerlytica notes that increased traffic on the Bab el Mandeb is driven by these carrier decisions aiming to circumvent threats and address congestion. Furthermore, Typhoon Dolphin has caused port shutdowns in Ningbo and Shanghai, leading to stranded container capacity and congestion spreading to Southern China. While forecasts suggest clearing vessel backlogs will take weeks, the impact of severe weather might prolong this time.

The narrative centers on the tension between geopolitical risk (Houthi threats) and operational necessity (vessel shortages and congestion). The gradual normalization of shipping routes, driven by major carriers seeking route diversification, illustrates a systemic response to external instability rather than isolated logistical problems. The fact that larger carriers are actively shifting routes demonstrates that the problem is not purely localized; it reflects a macro-level recalibration of global trade flows where established choke points are being navigated through alternative, albeit riskier, corridors. The mention of specific vessel services (e.g., Ocean Alliance) highlights the interwoven nature of shipping networks, meaning disruptions cascade across multiple logistical dependencies simultaneously. The acknowledgment that the Houthi threat is a "wildcard" focused on oil tankers versus box ships points to an asymmetrical vulnerability in maritime security protocols. The underlying implication for human agency is whether market forces can effectively manage systemic risk when physical security guarantees are absent, and who ultimately bears the cost of this necessary route uncertainty.

Cosco returns to Red Sea sailings, despite threats from Houthis

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Cosco returns to Red Sea sailings, despite threats from Houthis

Facts Only

Executive Summary

Full Take