Brazil imported 5.48 GW of PV modules in the first half of 2026, down 48% from 10.57 GW in the same period of 2025, according to a survey by consultancy Greener. The contraction reflects a sharp slowdown in demand for PV equipment, particularly from utility-scale projects.
Imports declined year on year in nearly every month of the six-month period. They fell 71.6% in March and 60.7% in April. May was the only exception, with imports rising 6.5% from the same month of 2025.
In absolute terms, Brazil imported about 5.1 GW less module capacity in the first half of 2026 than it did a year earlier. Monthly volumes fell from 2.33 GW to 1.12 GW in January, from 2.19 GW to 1.02 GW in February, and from 2.03 GW to 576.7 MW in March.
Curtailment weighs on utility-scale projects
The contraction was particularly severe in the centralized generation segment. Module imports for utility-scale projects fell 82%, from 2.3 GW in the first half of 2025 to 430 MW in the same period of 2026.
Luiza Bertazzoli, head of market intelligence at Greener, said curtailment is the main factor behind the decline.
“In centralized generation, curtailment is the dominant factor today,” Bertazzoli said. “It reduces projected project revenue and increases the perceived risk of new investment.”
She said the supply-demand imbalance is also linked to the large number of project authorizations granted during the rush to meet tariff-discount deadlines in recent years. Stronger-than-expected growth in distributed micro- and minigeneration has also increased competition for grid capacity.
Greener said generation curtailment is undermining the profitability of utility-scale projects and discouraging purchases of new equipment.
Distributed generation also slows
The downturn was less pronounced in the distributed generation segment, where module imports fell 39%, from 8.2 GW to about 5 GW.
Despite the decline, distributed generation’s share of module imports rose from 78% in the first half of 2025 to 92% in the same period of 2026. The share attributed to centralized generation fell from 22% to 8%.
Greener attributed the distributed-generation slowdown to several factors. The market is entering a more mature phase after years of rapid expansion, while high interest rates, declining use of sales financing and grid-connection constraints are weighing on demand.
Bertazzoli said the proportion of sales involving financing has fallen from 57% in 2021 to 41% in 2026, according to a Greener survey.
Grid-connection refusals by electricity distributors due to reverse power flow are another obstacle. The problem is particularly acute in Minas Gerais, where 79% of system integrators reported encountering it in 2025, compared with a national average of 33%, according to data cited by Bertazzoli.
Remote distributed generation is also being affected by the gradual introduction of the TUSD distribution tariff’s “Fio B” component. The applicable share reached 60% in 2026, reducing the economic benefit of generating electricity at one location and using credits to offset consumption elsewhere.
Module prices rise 12.9%
The decline in import volumes coincided with higher equipment prices. The weighted average free-on-board price of modules rose 12.9% in the first half of 2026, from $0.0802/W in the same period of 2025 to $0.0906/W.
The increase was concentrated in the second quarter. The average price reached $0.1042/W in May, the highest level recorded during the period and 29% above the January price of $0.0816/W.
Greener attributed the increase to China’s phaseout of a 9% export incentive for PV modules beginning in April, which placed upward pressure on equipment costs in the international market.
The consultancy expects manufacturers to pass only a limited portion of the increase on to buyers in the second half of the year.
“The first half of the year already absorbed the impact of the end of the Chinese subsidy for module exports,” Bertazzoli said. “It is a permanent change, but the pass-through to end buyers is likely to remain limited, as China’s excess production capacity pressures manufacturers to absorb part of the cost within their margins.”
Bertazzoli said polysilicon prices began to rise slightly in August, following the introduction of a Chinese policy aimed at curbing overproduction. The increase could put further upward pressure on module prices.
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Facts Only
* Brazil imported 5.48 GW of PV modules in the first half of 2026.
* This is a 48% decrease from 10.57 GW imported in the same period of 2025.
* Imports declined month-over-month across the six-month period, falling 71.6% in March and 60.7% in April.
* Module imports for utility-scale projects fell 82%, from 2.3 GW in H1 2025 to 430 MW in H1 2026.
* Module imports for distributed generation fell 39%, from 8.2 GW to about 5 GW.
* The share of module imports from distributed generation rose from 78% in H1 2025 to 92% in H1 2026.
* The weighted average free-on-board price of modules rose 12.9% in the first half of 2026, from $0.0802/W in H1 2025 to $0.0906/W.
* Curtailment was the dominant factor for utility-scale projects.
* Polysilicon prices began to rise slightly in August due to a Chinese policy on overproduction.
Executive Summary
Full Take
The data reveals a structural shift where supply chain dynamics, geopolitical influences, and grid infrastructure constraints dictate market behavior more than simple demand fluctuations. The severe contraction in utility-scale module imports, explicitly linked to generation curtailment, suggests that the bottleneck is not necessarily a lack of overall project appetite but an inability to effectively utilize generated power within the existing grid framework. This pattern implies that upstream production capacity risks becoming irrelevant if downstream infrastructure cannot absorb it efficiently.
The divergence between centralized and distributed generation signals differing points of friction. While large-scale projects face systemic grid limitations leading to curtailment, distributed generation faces market maturity issues (high interest rates, financing) and specific local regulatory barriers (grid connection refusals). This suggests that solutions require differentiated policy tools: mechanisms to incentivize curtailment reduction for large projects versus policies that streamline grid access and mitigate financing risks for smaller, decentralized investments.
Furthermore, the price increase seems decoupled from immediate market demand pressures; it is rooted in international trade adjustments stemming from Chinese export incentives and subsequent capacity pressures. The finding that manufacturers are absorbing cost pressure rather than fully passing it on indicates a potential structural buffer against immediate consumer price spikes, but this masks underlying inflationary pressures tied to global manufacturing capacity management. The overarching implication is that the transition to renewable energy deployment is being slowed by physical constraints (grid) and financial mechanisms (financing), creating a complex feedback loop where technological supply does not equate to realized market adoption or profitability.
BRIDGE QUESTIONS:
What specific structural reforms are required in Brazilian grid management to resolve curtailment as the primary impediment to utility-scale investment? How should financing instruments be adjusted to mitigate risk for distributed generation investments under current interest rate environments? What is the long-term impact of TUSD tariff changes and reverse power flow restrictions on the pace of renewable energy integration across different regions of Brazil?