I didn’t think Trump would be this foolish, but here we are.

Geopolitical Risk Surges

Trump said an interim peace deal signed between the two last month is over.

Oil prices spiked 8 percent, stocks are down, and bond yields surged.

Trump Calls Iran Scum

Rational Last Month, Scum Today

The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Says Ceasefire With Iran Is Over After Latest Attacks

President Trump said he believed his ceasefire deal with Iran was over and that the U.S. would likely carry out more strikes soon, following another round of Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz that snarled efforts to reopen the strategic waterway.

“We hit them very hard last night…we’ll probably hit them hard again tonight,” Trump told reporters at a NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday. “I’ll give them a little warning, we’re going to hit them hard tonight. But we’ll see how it all works out.”

The president’s remarks were the starkest sign yet that diplomacy with Iran has stalled under the preliminary peace agreement he signed in mid-June. “If we make a deal with Iran, I’m not sure that will stick,” Trump said, during an appearance with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He said he was considering reimposing a naval blockade on Iran to ramp up economic pressure, and raised the prospect of targeting civilian infrastructure such as electricity and desalination plants, “if we have to.”

During earlier comments to reporters, sitting next to North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Trump stopped short of saying the U.S. would restart the war, however, and said he would let talks continue if the parties were willing.

“To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore,” Trump said.

Water Desalinization

• Qatar: ~61% desalination (22% groundwater, 18% rainwater); >99% of drinking water from desalination.
• Bahrain: ~59% desalination (32% groundwater, 11% rainwater); >90% of drinking water.
• Kuwait: ~47% desalination (51% groundwater); ~90% of drinking/municipal water.
• UAE: ~41% desalination (46% groundwater + treated wastewater/rainwater); ~42% of drinking water.
• Oman: ~23% desalination (69% groundwater); ~86% of drinking/municipal water.
• Saudi Arabia: ~18% desalination (79% groundwater); ~70% of drinking/municipal water. Saudi produces the largest volume in the world (about 3 billion m³ in 2023).
• Israel: Highly advanced system. Desalination (seawater + brackish) supplies ~80–86% of potable/drinking water. Strong wastewater reuse for agriculture. Israel is a global leader in water technology and efficiency.

Iran Desalinization

Iran has more diverse natural resources than the Gulf states

• Surface water (rivers like Karun, etc.): ~41% of total withdrawals (~41 BCM out of ~100 BCM annual total).
• Groundwater (wells, qanats/aquifers): ~59% (~58.8 BCM) — heavily overexploited.
• Desalination: Negligible overall — only ~0.2 BCM/year (~0.2% of total withdrawals), mostly for coastal petrochemical plants or small southern facilities. Some sources approximate it at around 3%.

Beyond Stupid Threat

For starters, targeting targeting Iran’s civilian infrastructure such as electricity and desalination plants would be a war crime, not that Trump ever gives a damn about such things.

Iran would immediately hit back targeting all the desalinization plants in the region. Any successful strike would cripple that country immediately.

Expect a TACO

Expect an immediate TACO on the threat. The Mideast countries with the exception of Israel are undoubtedly on the phone already telling Trump not to do it.

Trump already gave himself a TACO out. He threatens infrastructure strikes “if we have to.”

Resolution Unchanged

The resolution of this war is unchanged. Iran is going to control the strait in the absence of US ground troops.

The clueless Wall Street Journal still has not figured this not, nor have the neocon US Senators.

The WSJ editorial board sounds offs with nonsense again, No More Oil Sanctions Waiver for Iran

The regime lost that privilege by firing on the Strait of Hormuz.

The MOU says “Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels.” The regime is making arrangements all right—maneuvering to conquer the Strait—but firing unprovoked on civilian tankers is as clear a violation as it gets.

The MOU negotiated by Vice President JD Vance & co. was light on nuclear commitments and heavy on sanctions relief up-front. Its redeeming feature was supposed to be re-establishing freedom of navigation in the Strait while nuclear talks proceeded. Instead the Strait is under fire and nuclear talks are barely underway.

Iran never agreed for freedom of passage without tolls. Indeed, it explicitly denied that.

Ships attempting to violate Iran’s statements were the ones hit. Trump broke the ceasefire not Iran.

Of course, the WSJ board offered no solution. It never does. All it says is “The regime lost that privilege by firing on the Strait of Hormuz.”

The WSJ clowns don’t say how the US is supposed to enforce that because they have no idea.

Market Reaction

• WTI Crude Oil, $75.71, +$5.27, +7.48%
• Brent Crude Oil, $80.09, +$5.93, +8.00%
• 30-Year Long Bond, 5.086 percent, +0.042 percentage points
• 10-Year Treasury Note, 4.591 percent, +0.062 percentage points

Stocks are down modestly, by about a percent. The oil and bond reactions are more telling.

The US Lost the War

The ultimate resolution has not changed.

Trump started a stupid war and lost it. Iran will control the strait, perhaps with Oman.

Oman would be wise to get in on the deal, speak in support of Iran to get something out of it. By doing so, Oman also would eliminate the threat of getting hit in the region’s crossfire.

Trump is doing nothing but making matters worse with his latest foolish actions.

Expect another humiliating TACO or more Mideast infrastructure is going to get blown up for nothing.

My base case is unchanged. Trump will back down and Iran will collect fees. As an added insult, Trump will look more stupid in the process.

If you have a better solution than waving the white flag of surrender (which the MOU did) then name it.

The MOU was simply a ploy to get gas prices down for the Fourth of July consumer orgy and most are aware that Israel will never allow peace in the Middle East.

Now the military establishment can get back to demanding more money!

Gas prices fell a bit but remained 40-50% above where they were the day of the election. Another Trump failure to stack on the piles of lies.

Frosty nails it per usual

Waving the white flag and paying due reparations for committing this vicious and criminal war.

The terms of the MOU are irrelevant because the United States never was going to abide by any of them.

The US should wave the white flag of surrender, GTFO of the Middle East and then pay reparations. Should, not will.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DaX-SQBEwMq/

No idea what the evidence for this statement is.

Iran has not stated this and this is not on the target list they have handed over.

Iran has to think of its relationships to these Gulf statelets after this is over.

Not depriving people of water has a very central place in Shia origins, like the crucifixion in Christianity. Have mentioned this before, but this would be a redline akin to deploying a nuclear device.

Read up about the Battle of Karbala 680 and Husayn ibn Ali and the deprivation of water.

The Iranian Regime has made the mistake of thinking that Trump was a WIMP president, like all the past ones they manage to intimidate into bending over for them!

Trump would garner more respect if he just admitted the circumstances require retreat to neutral ground and let the world economy catch its breath. Or turn the war powers over to the Senate and wipe his hands of the problem. But false pride and lack of humility stand in his way. He is sabotaging his Presidency instead.

correct

Didn’t he actually say the ceasefire with the Islamic Republic of Japan?

Why not just call Persians “subhumans” and say what he really thinks?

Actually, for Trump and his ilk, that term applies to anyone not part of The Epstein Class.

Perfidious Albion.

“ I didn’t think Trump would be this foolish”

There is no lower bound for his stupidity, now that dementia has taken hold.

He will do something even dumber within the week.

quoted:

Feb 28th: Launches war with no Congressional backing, no NATO support. Claims it will be over by Sunday night in time for the futures to open. Maximalist goals include regime change, complete de-nuclearization of Iran, and limits on their ballistic missile program.

Early March: Now says war over in 4-6 weeks. Axios fake news weaponized to manipulate crude oil futures.

April: War continues.Attacks NATO allies for not providing support. Makes up stories about Kurds possibly doing a ground war.

May: No more regime change on the menu. Now the goals are reduced to restoring the status quo ante Feb 28, and getting Iran to give up “nucular dust”.

June: Bogus MoU signed.

July: Bogus MoU RIP. War is back. Trump now begs Jolani to bail him out in Lebanon.

The picture we get is of an incompetent with no plan, no exit strategy, and no discipline.

US voters are to blame for electing two geriactics in a row.

You are joking, right? The Epstein class narrows the choice to tweedle-dee & tweedle-dum, and gives the sheep “the vote” just to make them think they had something to do with it. There’s plenty of blame to spread around, but expecting the sheep to be allowed to behave differently is dreaming.

They should not be sheep.

Even sheep are not lemmings (even lemmings aren’t).

Just everybody vote for candidates that are not Dem/Rep or incumbents, and only if their main campaign plank is to rid the political process of money and corruption.

Iran doesn’t want to let Trump iff the hook. it wants to punish him by tanking the election for the GOP.

Bond yields surge you say? It’s time to buy back calls on TLT dirt cheap.

Oil prices spiked you say? It’s time to sell calls on oil stocks.

Stocks are down? It’s time to sell those puts for profits.

Any questions?

Remember the A.B.P’s of life, Always Be Profiting!

Do worry, Trump, Walrus and the GOP will find a way to make things even worse.™

As far as the Wall Street Journal goes?

Just another Fox News propaganda outlet for the extremist theocracy called Israel.

Why are we fighting another extremist theocracy (Iran) on their behalf?

Has anyone at Fox/WSJ ever read the first amendment to the US Constitution?

Beware of another false flag incident…

Only one dropping more bombs than the US and Israel is Frosty in the chat!

President Donald J Hoover just said at the NATO summit that the world respects America now, more than they ever have before!

This man is a delusional narcissist.

It’s embarrassing to see an old fool making a fool of himself on the international stage. Even MAGA voters deserve a better head of state.

No, they do not.

Mish …. your summation is absolutely correct couldn’t be more spot on …

Thanks

Ditto…pretty good post…balls & strikes, staying away from the ad hominem, for the the most part 👍

Trumps crazy MOU nonsense has been a silly distraction- nothing has changed since he capitulated. Trump went on an ego bender and created a mess that will be around for years until we put an adult in charge that can extract the US from the situation. Just like everything he touches, he’s turned it to shit – he’s a moron

Drama. Short USO OCT 90/135 call spread. Will short more if it continues to rise.

John, short CALLS higher into resistance. Averaging in is a loser’s trade.

Already up 6.5% and there is plenty of time left on the clock. I do this for a living after retiring from medicine in my early 40’s. Listening to your advice is a loser’s trade. Thank you. Have a nice day.

Hey, an actual documented position as opposed fake nonsense about “profits” 👍

Not sure this is a crazy idea but…

Maybe he did this to throw the NATO summit of balance and keep the focus on him. They were going to talk about the progress made to increase European spending. This might even be seen as progress towards some kind of agreement about something.

But instead it’s all about Donny and not the Epstein files or FIFA or reflecting swamps. He’s got to keep the boat rocked.

OK, bring it. Supreme goofball is going to take this over the edge. Useless waste, at global scale.

Trump gaffed that the “Islamic Republic of Japan” fired on our carrier, and seemingly mistook Zelenskyy for Putin. So brain-wise, it is a propitious moment, a moronic convergence!

Says the grifter/profiteer/pedophile in chief.

Trump is attacking a nation/theocracy half way around the world as a pawn of another nation/theocracy without a plan or justification.

Meanwhile China and most civilized nations shrug their shoulders observing Trumps lack of leadership skills or self control.

Who does Trump work for?

Who does Trump work for?

The shambolic Democratic Party, apparently.

We know who he works for. The Mossad has the Epstein tapes incriminating the Chief Pedophile of the United States.

This 100 years old document reveals some pretty interesting insights. Seems nothing much has changed since. Technological progress, most certainly, a great digital enslavement enabler for those in control.

https://dn790007.ca.archive.org/0/items/secret-world-government/secret-world-government.pdf

It’s multi-dimensional chess re oil prices – A lifeline had to be thrown to U.S. fracking. /sarc

Iran fired on three ships transiting the Straight of Hormuz. Why is it a good thing to allow Iran to control the Straight?

its not a good thing, its the least worst possible option available after Trump stupidly caused a shooting war.

if the gulf states oil infrastructure gets eliminated, we will be in a worse position.

Iran didn’t have control over maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz before February 28. Trump (your best president) handed them that leverage on a silver platter.

We bombed them because of the belief that they were close to completing a nuclear weapon or three and feared they might use it against Israel.

Any repercussions re: the Strait of Hormuz were secondary.

Trump didn’t allow Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz, he caused them to take control through his idiotic actions. He has no ability to prevent them from controlling the strait, which illustrates the difficult position he is in.

If you have a better solution than waving the white flag of surrender (which the MOU did) then name it.

Hey Steve. Has Iran always been firing on ships in the Hormuz? If not, when did it start and why? What was the Hormuz like for the last 50 years before Trump showed up?

Maybe you need to start thinking and asking critical questions instead of your endless loyalty to a total loser like Trump.

He is a MAWA (MAGA) moron.

Should have thought of that before attacking Iran on the basis of lies.

Because the Strait is in Iran’s territorial waters.

Half is Omanian and UAE also. D’oh.

This board is populated with pathetic islamic extremist sympathizers who worship the IRGC. I am going to stop reading the idiotic comments of these knuckle dragging foaming at the mouth assholes.

If you removed the core group of 8-10 who post here daily, the number of posts would decline by about 80%.

Mish has allowed this formerly Libertarian blog to turn into a leftist Dem conventiuon!

I see 3 options:

1. Boots on the ground trying to control the strait.

2. A lot of boots to force regime change. Like bush and Iraq.

3. Relentless carpet bombing. Like nixon and Vietnam

Of course there is also a complete Taco option.

I think you’re way too optimistic on 2. In Iraq, we had much more competent leadership, both at the Presidential and the military level. Would anyone trade General Stormin’ Norman for Pete Kegsbreath? Even Rumsfeld looked like a genius compared with that guy.

Plus, Bush Jr. had the support of most of Europe, Japan, and Australia. Taco has a big fat zilch. He has no support for this war, and our boys coming home in body bags would end whatever is left of his shrinking political capital.

Unlike Iraq and Vietnam, Iran can shoot back and the boots would come back empty and the bombers would not come back.

You are obviously an under-appreciated military planner.

US turned the Strait into a war zone.

Now Iran has to be able to control and interdict traffic to make sure it’s not the enemy.

Should not be a surprise as we have a declining moral and competent pos as head of state.

No surprise here: I’ve been calling Trump…

King Chaos the Shit Talker…

for a while now.