The Big ICE Meltdown — June’s China EV Sales Report
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Petrol model sales crash 42% in June!
High gas prices and a never ending wave of new models has allowed June to reach record EV market share, with plugins reaching a record 63%!
However, while record market share was achieved in the past thanks to strong EV sales, this time, the record achievement is thanks to a significant ICE (internal combustion engine) crash. The overall market dropped 23% year over year (YoY), to around 1.6 million sales. ICE-powered models were at the epicenter of this disruption, crashing 39% YoY, with pure petrol bearing the bulk of the sales drop (-42% YoY). Rather surprisingly, HEVs dropped by only 7%, less than plugin hybrids (PHEVs), which fell 27% in June, and extended range models (EREVs), which were down a staggering 32%.
This poor performance from EREVs is rather surprising. In theory, they are the closest an ICE model can get to being a BEV, and yet, they were the hybrid powertrain with the steepest fall. Maybe the powertrain’s theoretical advantages are less significant in real life?
Considering the doom and gloom described above, there was still reason for hope. And what might that be? Pure electrics. Despite having fewer incentives, BEVs were up 4% YoY, to 685,000 sales. This meant that BEVs scored a record 43% BEV share in China!
Adding PHEVs (20% share) to the tally meant that in June, a record 63% of all cars sold in China had a plug! Comparing this result with where we were a year ago, it is a full 10% share improvement. In June 2025, the plugin share was 53%…. If this trend continues in the future, the Chinese market will be fully electrified by 2030, and 100% BEV before 2035!
This great result pulled the 2026 share up, to 54%, the same as the full year of 2025. BEVs on their own were up to 36% (versus 33% in 2025).
At this pace, I expect the final number for 2026 EV share in China to be around 60%, with BEVs alone north of the 40% mark. And when the largest global automotive market gets this electrified … then the ICE industry is in serious trouble.
(Which means that investing money in R&D for ICE technology today is throwing money out the window, as there won’t be enough time to pay back the investment costs.)
Another interesting statistic is that the breakdown between pure electrics and plugin hybrids is shifting, to the profit of BEVs. At the beginning of the year, PHEVs were profiting from the incentive-derived BEV drop, but pure electrics are returning with a vengeance. June showed a 68% vs. 32% breakdown, to the benefit of BEVs, with the 2026 average now at 66%/34%.
Historically, this is the highest BEV share since 2023, and a step in the return to the 80% vs 20% breakdown of the first years in the Chinese EV market. With PHEVs losing incentives at the end of this year, 2027 could be the first year since 2022 to see that kind of sales breakdown.
Another seismic change happening in the Chinese automotive industry is the increasing importance of exports for local OEMs. In June alone, around half a million units were exported, a 153% jump YoY, with the EV share of those exports mirroring the domestic market — 57% EV share in June.
Due to these significant monthly EV exports from Chinese automakers, legacy OEMs are not only struggling in the Chinese market, which is the largest in the world, but also being squeezed elsewhere, so it is nothing more than a pipe dream to think that they can sustain the Chinese tsunami by keeping their ICE models in markets outside China.
USA is the exception here, but … it serves as the exception to the rule.
Moving on, before I get into a rant about the US decline….
All of these disruptions are visible in the overall ranking. In the first months of the year, ICE models were populating the top positions, but following what happened in May, we have another all-EV top 10 in June in the overall market, seven of them being pure electric models!
Looking at the best sellers in several size categories, EV disruption is also quite visible. With the exception of the C-segment, all other size categories had 100% plugin podiums, and of these, only three models were not 100% BEV.
Having a quick look at the five size categories, the highlight is the surprise leadership of BYD’s Sealion 05 crossover in the compact category, with the Volkswagen Lavida ending the month in 3rd. But considering that Volkswagen’s dinosaur ICE model was down 39% YoY in June, and ended the month only in 13th overall, I believe it will be a matter of time until models like the MG 4 or XPENG’s Mona EVs (the Mo3 and the upcoming L03) will be able to remove that last of the ICE representatives from the compact podium soon.
Also, a note regarding city cars: they were the most affected by the subsidy cut, with the category having dismal results since then. Only the Wuling Mini EV is selling in decent numbers. Maybe it would be a good idea to create some kind of kei-car category to revive sales of city cars? (Or BYD could just start selling its Racco EV in China….)
Here’s more info and commentary on June’s top selling electric models:
#1 — BYD Song (BEV+PHEV)
BYD’s midsize SUV is in a transition stage, and you can tell. Thanks to the ramp-up of the new Ultra body (11,423 units in June), BYD’s star player scored 42,588 registrations, which despite still representing a 9% decrease YoY, is its best result in a year and allowed to win the overall title in June. Once the new generation is fully ramped up, the Song will once again be a fierce adversary for the competition to beat. The new Ultra generation features lidar and 1,500 kW DC charging, and these two features aren’t even the most impressive aspects of the model! That would be the price. It starts at 152,000 yuan (or $22,000) with the 76 kWh battery, and it goes up to 180,000 yuan (or $26,000) for the 83 kWh version. For comparison, the Tesla Model Y starts in China at 259,000 yuan ($38,250)…. Expect the Song to experience a second youth in the second half of the year, and while it should be hard to displace the Tesla Model Y from the second place position, the last place on the podium should be doable this year. And maybe gold in 2027?
#2 — Tesla Model Y
The extended wheelbase version, imaginatively called “L,” is helping the Model Y’s fortunes in China. In June, deliveries reached 38,654 units, a 14% drop over June 2025. The long wheelbase version is proving to be of big help for the US crossover, keeping the Model Y’s sales afloat. Although unable to challenge the Xingyuan’s leadership, the US crossover is benefitting from the generation change slowdown of the BYD Song and gaining precious advantage in the race for silver (the Model Y was 3rd last year).
#3 — Geely Geome Xingyuan
A BYD Dolphin for BYD Seagull money ($10,000 USD). At least, that’s how Geely’s internal memo might have described the Geome Xingyuan when developing its latest hatchback. And it’s got an interesting name, as Xingyuan translates as “wishing upon a star.” It seems that Geely had its wish granted. The small hatchback has finally given the Hangzhou OEM the much coveted best selling model trophy. In June, the Geely model has dropped to third, with 33,359 registrations, a 18% drop over June 2025. With the focus now being on export markets, the small hatchback is at cruising speed in its home market.
#4 — Leapmotor A10
Things continue to go well for the startup brand, with its new baby A10 promising to be the star player of an already strong lineup. Thanks to 24,865 registrations in only its fourth month on the market, the small crossover continued to ramp up production and won another top 5 presence for Leapmotor, this time in 4th. The model has the usual value-for-money focus of the brand, and a low, low price of 66,000 yuan ($10,000). On top of that, however, the A10 offers something close to a distinct personality, as the design eschews the white product standard design of Leapmotor for something more personal, mostly thanks to the front and back lights and a floating roof effect. One wonders how high the crossover will sit on the table, once it is at cruising speed. Will it be podium material?
#5 — Li Auto i6
After a strong start to the year, things continue to go well for the midsize model, with the startup EV securing another top 5 presence thanks to 21,453 registrations. With a high amount of space, comfort, and luxury for just $35,000 USD (for reference, the cheapest Tesla Model Y in China starts at $36,000 USD), the i6 offers an extensive list of equipment (air suspension, refrigerator, advanced self-driving — including lidar). It also has a strong focus on space (three-meter wheelbase) and comfort. It’s a model that offers full size luxury in a midsize-priced EV.
Looking at the rest of the best seller table, one highlight was the #8 BYD Sealion 05 scoring a record result, 19,023 registrations. The depth of BYD’s lineup is such that if the usual star players in a given position (BYD Dolphin, Yuan Plus) are not in top shape, others are more than happy to replace them and keep sales at high levels.
Another model on the rise is the #9 Qinyuan/Nevo Q05, with Changan’s mainstream EV brand benefiting from a new generation of its compact crossover to score another record performance, 18,908 registrations, its 4th record result in a row!
The other major highlight was Wuling’s new baby, the Wuling Bingo Pro, which is basically the new generation of the Bingo hatchback. The model scored 14,154 deliveries, the nameplate’s best result in 13 months. Is this new generation ready to come after the category kingpin, the Geely Xingyuan? Hmm … I doubt it. But it will be interesting to see where it goes after such a strong start. Top 10?
Outside the top 20, a few models deserve a mention.
Let’s start with the landing of a literal heavyweight. The big, fat NIO ES9 had its first full month, scoring a significant 8,595 registrations. Not bad for a model measuring almost 5.4 meters long (about the same size as the regular ICE Cadillac Escalade), weighing close to 3 (three) tons, and priced at the low, low, price of $74,000 USD. (Downturn? What downturn?!?…)
On the other tip of the NIO scale, there was also good news, with the small Firefly hatchback reaching a record 6,914 units. So, it seems that local buyers are warming up to the concept of premium hatchbacks. Good news for Mini and Smart?…
The Chery QQ3 EV finally crossed the 10,000-unit barrier, with 10,524 units sold. So, will there be a position on the table for Chery’s Xingyuan fighter?
Looking at the 2026 ranking, the BYD Song took profit from the recent wind in its sails to join the podium, displacing Li Auto’s i6 from the third position. With the silver medalist Tesla Model Y stable (+1% YoY), it will be a tall order for the BYD midsizer to recover 52,000 units in just six months. So unless the Song goes into warp-speed in the next few months, one can say that the Texan crossover has the runner-up spot secured.
Below the podium positions, BYD had two other models on the rise, with the BYD Yuan Up going up to 8th, while on the second half of the table, the BYD Dolphin was up to #14, closing in on the MG 4, but it was another compact EV to steal the show, with the Qiyuan Q05 jumping four positions and becoming the new best seller in the C-segment.
Finally, two major climbers this month were the Xiaomi SU7, which jumped three positions into 9th, being not only the best selling sedan on the table, but allowing Xiaomi to place its two models in the top 10, something Tesla used to do, but with the Model 3 now losing sales (down 28% YoY in H1 ’26) significantly, the best that the veteran sedan can muster right now is a 17th spot.
The other climber was the new Leapmotor A10, that joined the top 20 this month, in #19, a position the small crossover will no doubt improve in the new few months, with a top 10 position quite likely, by the end of the year.
Looking at the first half of the year, in the overall manufacturer ranking, it is a sea of red. Everyone is losing sales — big time. The 9% drop for Tesla is considered a win when we look at the 46% drop of BYD, the 30% drop of Wuling, and the 29% fall of the once almighty Volkswagen, now only in 3rd.
So, if the big boys on top are crashing, who is winning?
Answer: Startups. And premium arms of major local OEMs. #5 Leapmotor was up 35% YoY, to 260,193 registrations.
Looking below the top 10, a few more brands are experiencing surging sales, like #21 Zeekr. Geely’s premium arm jumped 59% YoY, to 135,838 units sold. At #24, we have another premium brand, this time BYD’s Fang Cheng Bao, which is surging 115% YoY, to 130,752 units. Meanwhile, NIO is at #27, with 119,257 units sold, a 60% volume increase compared to the same period of 2025. After years of ups and downs, it seems NIO has finally found its place in the market.
Looking at the auto brand ranking, there’s plenty of news. Leader BYD is firm in the leadership spot (17.1%, up from 16.8%), with runner-up Geely experiencing some difficulties (7.4%, down from 7.8%).
Rising Leapmotor (5.5%, up 0.4%) has distanced itself from Tesla (5.1%), with the startup now looking to reach Geely’s rear.
Meanwhile, #5 Wuling (4.9%) is secure in the top 5, as #6 Li Auto and #7 Xiaomi are still a ways off from SAIC’s make.
Looking at OEMs/automotive groups/alliances, BYD is leading, with 21.1% share of the market. Meanwhile, #2 Geely lost 0.4% share and got down to 12.3%, but the multinational conglomerate still had the runner-up spot secured.
#3 SAIC is stable (8.4%), while #4 Changan is also safe in 4th (6.8%, down 0.1%), but the new 5th placed Leapmotor (5.5%) could become a threat to these two towards the end of the year.
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