Quote of the Day
"Writers and playwrights craft their own stories from start to finish, whereas investors don't get to choose what happens next."
(Rubin Miller)
Chart of the Day
“Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, & Oracle will spend 90% of their operating cash flow on AI data centers in 2026, up from a historical average of 40%.”
Strategy
- Sometimes an investment works out, even when it shouldn't. (morningstar.com)
- Don't discount the impact of skew on investment returns. (fortunesandfrictions.com)
Bonds
Finance
- What a SpaceX IPO could look like. (reuters.com)
- Intercontinental Exchange ($ICE) is putting another $600 million into Polymarket. (theblock.co)
Big Tech
- How Amazon ($AMZN) is building out fast rural delivery. (wsj.com)
- Apple ($AAPL) actually cares about making great computers. (spyglass.org)
- Google ($GOOGL) is getting out of the fiber business. (om.co)
Food
- NotCo is helping big food create 'plant-based alternatives for products typically made from dairy and meat.' (forbes.com)
- Danone is buying protein shake maker Huel. (sherwood.news)
- Vertical farming hasn't lived up to its promise. (nytimes.com)
- How to get Americans to eat more seafood. (apnews.com)
AI
- Derek Thompson talks AI with Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark. (derekthompson.org)
- Companies don't need to pay taxes on agents. (tomtunguz.com)
- AI needs the open web. (techdirt.com)
- AI has a PR problem. (yahoo.com)
Drones
- In the age of drones are tanks and artillery outdated? (theatlantic.com)
- The U.S. military is not prepared for a full-on drone war. (wsj.com)
- A Russian drone put a hole in the containment dome at Chernobyl. (ft.com)
Economy
- Diesel price increases are outpacing gasoline. (nytimes.com)
- The helium shortage is real. (ft.com)
- The war isn't helping consumer confidence. (econbrowser.com)
- There are now more women employed in the U.S. than men. (axios.com)
- Jerome Powell didn't ask to be a part of the resistance. (thebulwark.com)
Earlier on Abnormal Returns
- What you missed in our Thursday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)
- Longform links: a policeman on the take. (abnormalreturns.com)
- Don't miss a thing! Sign up for our daily e-mail newsletter. (abnormalreturns.com)
Facts Only
Rubin Miller is the author of the quote
The chart predicts 90% operating cash flow on AI data centers for Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, & Oracle in 2026 (up from a historical average of 40%)
Strategic advice includes considering skew's impact on investment returns and understanding that sometimes investments work out despite appearing unlikely
SpaceX IPO plans are discussed
Intercontinental Exchange ($ICE) is investing $600 million into Polymarket
Amazon ($AMZN) is building out fast rural delivery
Apple ($AAPL) values computer innovation
Google ($GOOGL) is leaving the fiber business
NotCo helps create plant-based alternatives for dairy and meat products
Danone is buying protein shake maker Huel
Concerns about vertical farming not meeting expectations are raised
Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark discusses AI with Derek Thompson
Companies don't need to pay taxes on agents, according to an article
AI has a public relations problem
A Russian drone caused damage at Chernobyl
Diesel prices are increasing
A helium shortage is real
Consumer confidence is declining
There are more women employed in the U.S. than men
Jerome Powell did not ask to be a part of political debates
Executive Summary
In this article, various topics are covered, including quotes and strategies in the investment world, updates on bonds and finance, a focus on big tech companies, food industry advancements, AI developments, drone discussions, economic news, and various links to other articles. The quote of the day by Rubin Miller compares the creative process of writers and playwrights to that of investors, emphasizing the lack of control investors have over the outcomes of their investments. The chart of the day predicts a significant increase in the percentage of operating cash flow spent by Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, & Oracle on AI data centers in 2026 compared to historical averages. Strategic advice includes considering skew's impact on investment returns and being aware that successful investments can occur even when they seem unlikely.
The finance section discusses potential plans for a SpaceX IPO and an additional investment by Intercontinental Exchange ($ICE) into Polymarket. In big tech, updates about Amazon's rural delivery expansion, Apple's commitment to computer innovation, and Google's exit from the fiber business are highlighted. The food industry segment mentions NotCo's work on plant-based alternatives for dairy and meat products, Danone's acquisition of protein shake maker Huel, and concerns about vertical farming not living up to its potential. AI developments include discussions with Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark and considerations about companies not having to pay taxes on agents. Drones are discussed in the context of their impact on military tactics and a hole made by a Russian drone at Chernobyl. Economic news covers increases in diesel prices, a helium shortage, declining consumer confidence, changes in employment rates between men and women, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's role in political debates.
Full Take
Taking a skeptical approach to analyze this article, we can detect several manipulation patterns:
* Patterns detected: ARC-0043 Motte-and-Bailey, ARC-0024 Ambiguity
The motte-and-bailey pattern is evident in the article's discussion of investment strategies. While it presents strategic advice about considering skew and understanding that sometimes investments work out despite appearing unlikely, it does not provide a clear definition or explanation of what "skew" means, creating ambiguity. This lack of clarity makes it difficult for readers to evaluate the advice's validity or apply it to their own investment decisions.
Additionally, the article provides multiple perspectives on various topics but fails to critically engage with these perspectives or challenge the underlying assumptions, instead presenting them as equal alternatives. This creates an ambiguous narrative that may lead readers to question the credibility and objectivity of the article.
Root cause: The root cause of these patterns is likely a lack of rigorous critical analysis in the construction of the article. The author may prioritize providing a broad range of perspectives rather than critically engaging with them, leading to ambiguity and potential manipulation.
Implications: This lack of critical engagement may lead readers to question the credibility and objectivity of the article, making it difficult for them to make informed decisions based on the information presented. It also reinforces existing biases and misunderstandings, as readers are not provided with a clear understanding of complex concepts like "skew" in investment strategies.
Bridge questions: What is the definition of "skew" in investment strategies? How can investors effectively consider skew's impact on their returns? What critical analysis should be applied when presenting multiple perspectives on complex topics to avoid creating ambiguity and potential manipulation?
