As the September presidential election fast approaches, several names have emerged as potential candidates to succeed Alar Karis. ERR News outlines those who want to run and those who do not.
Estonia's presidents are elected by the members of the Riigikogu, not the public, and a two-thirds majority – 68 of 101 votes – is needed to secure victory. Parties must work together to find a joint candidate, which has proved easier said than done in the past.
The current two-party coalition does not have enough votes to elect a president by itself, so it must work with the opposition parties.
Possible candidates are often floated in the media by politicians before their party has agreed to back the nominee – let alone multiple parties – or the candidate has even agreed to run.
The names put forward in the media so far cannot officially be referred to as candidates yet, as the formalization process takes place August 21-24. Regardless of how popular a figure may be, they have to give their consent to run first.
With those caveats in mind, here are the four women and eight men who have so far been talked about as the potential next president.
Not running
Alar Karis, 68
Incumbent president Alar Karis announced during his Victory Day speech on June 23 that he would not be running for a second term, ending months of speculation.
Karis cited family as the reason he did not want to continue in the role.
Publicly announced candidates
Riho Ühtegi, 62
Riho Ühtegi is a retired major general, former commander of the Defense League (Kaitseliit), as well as a former intelligence and special ops command chief.
His candidacy has been proposed by five public figures: Composer Sven Grünberg, businessman Hugo Osula, entrepreneur and filmmaker Kris Taska, actor and director Hendrik Toompere and political analyst Raivo Vare. They say he would be an honest, straightforward leader with strong security and crisis-management experience.
Ühtegi describes himself as a conservative with an emphasis on national unity and constitutional oversight, not foreign policy.
The opposition Isamaa party has met with him to discuss his candidacy.
Mart Helme, 76
Founder and vice-chair of the opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) and a former interior minister, Helme has publicly declared he is willing to run and is his party's official candidate.
Publicly proposed but not given consent
Ülle Madise, 51
Madise is a long-serving Chancellor of Justice. She is seen by many analysts as the strongest candidate to have emerged. The Reform Party and the Social Democrats (SDE) have said they would support Madise if she agrees to run. Early on this month, Madise said she had not given her consent to run, however. Isamaa and Center criticized the SDE's public announcement as premature.
Indrek Laul, 58
Laul is CEO of the Estonia Piano Factory, a high-end piano maker. He was this week nominated by 30 public figures including artists, academics, and business leaders. Supporters say he embodies balance, broad-mindedness, and the ability to unite Estonia's diverse sectors. Isamaa has met with him already. This is the third time Laul's name has been mentioned in connection with a presidential candidacy, though he has never run before.
Name floated, may be interested
Jonatan Vseviov, 44
Foreign Ministry Secretary General and a former ambassador to the US, Vseviov says he is fully focused on his current role and not pursuing "side adventures," though has also tempered this by launching a public social media account, and gave a lengthy profile interview (link in Estonian). Isamaa for one said at the time of writing it would not be meeting with him, as he had not expressed interest.
Kersti Kaljulaid, 56
A former President of Estonia (2016–2021). Her name was suggested by Reform's Prime Minister Kristen Michal and MP Eerik-Niiles Kross, from the same party. Michal noted that he thought the next head of state should be a woman, though no one has reportedly directly discussed the idea with her. Sources close to Kaljulaid say no politicians have approached her directly on the matter. She was ousted from her position as head of the Estonian Olympic Committee (EOK) in April.
Names floated in the media
Riina Kionka, 65
Senior diplomat Riina Kionka, a former Ambassador to NATO, has not been approached by any party and has said she does not wish to comment on domestic political matters while serving in the EU. Her name surfaced in the context of a Reform–SDE dispute back in March when SDE chair Lauri Läänemets accused Reform of quietly pushing Kionka as a candidate while denying responsibility; SDE's Tanel Kiik had first publicly mentioned her name in this context. Läänemets later apologized to Kionka and President Karis for being "drawn into intrigues." Reform denied making any formal proposal, though Kiik then produced a text message from Reform's Secretary General Kristo Enn Vaga which suggested Kionka's name.
Jüri Luik, 59
A former Minister of Defense and NATO ambassador, Luik has reportedly ruled himself out of being a presidential candidate. His name had been floated in broader presidential speculation in the spring, as it had been in 2021 too.
Matti Maasikas, 59
A senior Estonian diplomat, currently Estonia's ambassador to the EU. His name was mentioned as a possible candidate along with Kionka and Luik.
Maive Rute, 60
Rute is Deputy Director-General of the European Commission's Directorate-General for the Internal Market and Industry and was referenced in the media in the context of the presidential elections in spring. Isamaa has a meeting scheduled with her at the time of writing.
Presidential election key dates:
August 21 – registration open for formal nomination of candidates.
August 24 – registration for candidates closes.
September 2 – first round of Riigikogu voting.
September 3 – second and third rounds of Riigikogu voting.
If these Riigikogu ballots do not produce a new head of state, the process moves to a regional electoral college, which convenes in Tallinn. If this draws a blank too, the process goes back to the Riigikogu for voting. If all else fails, the final say on candidate(s) goes to the Riigikogu Council of Elders, comprising the speaker, the speaker's two deputies, and the heads of all six elected Riigikogu parties (Reform, Eesti 200, SDE, Isamaa, EKRE, Center). The Council of Elders was last resorted to in a presidential election in 2016, when Kersti Kaljulaid was elected president in October of that year. This followed an election process which started in August.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte
Facts Only
* Elections are decided by the members of the Riigikogu, not the public.
* A two-thirds majority (68 of 101 votes) is needed to secure victory.
* Parties must collaborate to find a joint candidate.
* The current two-party coalition lacks the necessary votes alone.
* Potential candidates have been floated in the media before official consent was given.
* Formalization of the candidacy process occurs August 21–24.
* Alar Karis announced he would not seek a second term.
* Riho Ühtegi's candidacy was proposed by five public figures.
* Mart Helme is the official candidate for the EKRE party.
* Indrek Laul was nominated by 30 public figures and met with Isamaa.
* Kersti Kaljulaid was suggested by Reform politicians, who hoped for a female leader.
Executive Summary
The process for electing a president in Estonia requires a two-thirds majority of the votes from the Riigikogu, necessitating cooperation between political parties. The current two-party coalition lacks the necessary votes alone and must work with opposition parties to secure a candidate. Potential candidates have been floated by politicians before formal agreement, which is not yet secured, as the official formalization process runs from August 21 to August 24.
Several individuals have been discussed in the context of potential leadership: Riho Ühtegi, a retired major general, has had his candidacy proposed by five public figures and has met with the opposition Isamaa party. Mart Helme is the official candidate for the opposition EKRE party. Úlle Madise is considered by some analysts to be the strongest candidate, with support from the Reform Party and the Social Democrats contingent upon her agreement to run. Indrek Laul has been nominated by many public figures and has met with Isamaa. Other names mentioned include Jonatan Vseviov, Kersti Kaljulaid (former President), Riina Kionka, Jüri Luik, Matti Maasikas, and Maive Rute.
Key dates for the election process are August 21–24 for nomination registration, September 2 for the first round of voting, and September 3 for subsequent rounds.
Full Take
The structure of Estonian presidential selection reveals a tension between political consensus and popular recognition, heavily mediated by institutional constraints. The necessity for multi-party cooperation to achieve the requisite majority points toward a systemic hurdle where political expediency often supersedes public preference. The fact that potential candidates must first gain consent before formal registration—a process involving negotiation among various groups—suggests that momentum is determined less by public demand and more by internal party bargaining, which the article notes has historically proven difficult.
The prominence given to figures like Ülle Madise, who are viewed as strong candidates by analysts, juxtaposed against those whose candidacy remains contingent on external approval, illustrates how institutional procedures filter potential leadership. This dynamic forces a pattern where high-profile individuals must navigate internal political landscapes rather than simply respond to an external call for leadership. The repeated surfacing of specific names like Laul and Ühtegi, often tied to endorsements from media figures or political bodies, demonstrates a mechanism through which legitimacy is constructed prior to the formal democratic vote.
The key implication lies in understanding that sovereignty in this context is not achieved solely through electoral mechanics but through successful coalition building. The timeline for registration versus voting highlights how bureaucratic procedures impose an artificial constraint on leadership emergence. What patterns emerge when potential leaders must operate within a system designed for compromise? How does the emphasis on procedural steps influence the visibility and eventual selection of leaders, particularly those whose support is not immediately institutionalized?
Sentinel — Human
The article functions as a detailed summary of procedural political maneuvering in Estonia, relying on reported political speculation and established election rules to structure the information.