TOKYO/NEW YORK — Genevieve Price considers herself a great flight hacker.
The 35-year-old naturopathic doctor based in San Diego usually buys basic economy tickets when she visits her family in New Jersey and then uses her Alaska Airlines frequent flier status to pick a seat, something that's usually not allowed for those no-frills fares.
"I like to travel a lot," Price told CNBC at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport, where she was returning from Rome.
But Price said she has her limits, and is planning to cap the spending she does on future flights, such as no more than $900 to Rome, where her partner is from.
Consumers' willingness to fly is being put to the test this spring as soaring fuel prices are leading to higher airfares. Cathay Pacific, SAS, Finnair and others are among the carriers that have already raised fares.
Travelers also have to contend with hourslong airport security lines in the U.S. because of the second government shutdown in half a year that's hitting the Transportation Security Administration, leaving many frustrated.
Fuel and fares
Fuel at major U.S. airports was going for $3.98 on Wednesday, up nearly 60% since before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.
The conflict has meant crisis for the aviation industry, particularly in the Middle East, where airspace closures have forced carriers to cancel flights and take longer and costlier routes.
Airlines will brief investors starting early next month on the longer-term impacts, but they immediately started raising airfare or increasing fuel surcharges on tickets to help cover the rising costs.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told reporters at a company event in Los Angeles this week that airfare could go up 20% this year. Customers appear willing to keep booking even though carriers are passing those high fuel costs along to travelers, he added.
Other airlines have also said demand has held up.
Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian told a JPMorgan industry conference earlier this month that demand has remained strong in recent weeks and that the airline is "well-positioned" to recapture the spike in fuel from its own sales.
U.S. airlines have seen solid demand for years. International travel has been a strong point, particularly for high-end leisure travel, which has brought so many visitors that governments from Japan to Spain have taken steps to reduce overtourism, while locals have protested.
But airline executives said they will prune flights if demand falls.
"We're certainly going to be nimble in terms of capacity to make sure that supply and demand stay in balance," American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said at the JPMorgan conference.
United, for its part, is preparing for fuel prices to remain elevated through next year and is cutting about 3 percentage points off of its capacity in off-peak travel times, like midweek and redeye flights, Kirby told employees this month.
Fares up
Some of the higher fares are already here.
Fares for flights across the Atlantic from the U.S. were going for $1,059, with three weeks advanced purchase, up 26.5% from the prior week, according to a Deutche Bank note on Monday.
Domestic routes, including transcontinental flights and flights to and from Hawaii, were also up, the report said.
Mary Jean Erschen-Cooke, a nurse from Cuba City, Wisconsin, who was setting out earlier this month from Tokyo on a 10-day trip through Japan with her husband, Paul, said she has a host of domestic U.S. family trips this year.
"We haven't booked our flights, but we should," she said, adding that she and her husband would consider driving for one of them. She noted that gasoline prices are also up, which will affect driving.
Security snarls
Along with higher airfare, travelers are facing challenges at airports this spring.
TSA officers have been working without regular pay since Feb. 14 because of an impasse in Congress over funding for the Department of Homeland Security. Nearly 500 TSA officers have quit, according to DHS and elevated call-outs have left airports short-staffed.
That's led to long security lines at major airports around the U.S., including in Houston, New York, and Atlanta. Wait times have exceeded three hours in some locations — longer than some of the flights those airports offered — as lines have snaked through terminals and outside of airports.
Elizabeth Leddy, a 38-year-old classical pianist based in New York, said she flies several times a year. The long security lines, which were running nearly 90 minutes at LaGuardia Airport for TSA PreCheck flyers on Friday, could be a deterrent for her doing that in the future.
Leddy said that if the security line was three to four hours long, "I feel like I could just drive."
DHS has blamed Democrats for the closure, which has become the longest partial shutdown in U.S. history. As of Friday afternoon, the Senate had passed a potential deal to end the shutdown, thought its fate was unclear.
President Donald Trump separately said he would sign an order to get the more than 50,000 TSA officers paid. TSA officers will start getting paychecks as early as Monday, DHS said Friday.
The Trump administration this week sent Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers to several U.S. airports, though DHS hasn't specified what their duties are. ICE officers, who also sit under the DHS umbrella, are still getting paid during the partial shutdown.
ICE officers were seen at New York's LaGuardia Airport on Friday morning watching security lines.
"Even if this manages to slightly reduce wait times (we're still reading about terrible wait times, so we're far from big improvement), ICE presence could cause some individuals to fear traveling and upset TSA workers not getting paid," Bernstein said in a note on Thursday. "Seems possible passenger throughput softens over the coming days and TSA screening YoY growth for this week turns slightly negative."
Facts Only
Genevieve Price, a 35-year-old naturopathic doctor from San Diego, uses her Alaska Airlines frequent flier status to select seats on basic economy tickets.
Fuel prices at major U.S. airports reached $3.98 on Wednesday, a nearly 60% increase since before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
Cathay Pacific, SAS, and Finnair have raised airfares due to soaring fuel costs.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby stated that airfares could increase by 20% this year.
Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian reported strong demand despite rising fuel costs.
American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said the airline will adjust capacity if demand falls.
United is cutting about 3% of its capacity in off-peak travel times.
Fares for transatlantic flights from the U.S. rose to $1,059, up 26.5% from the prior week.
Domestic U.S. flight fares, including transcontinental and Hawaii routes, have also increased.
TSA officers have been working without pay since February 14 due to a government shutdown.
Nearly 500 TSA officers have quit, leading to long security lines at airports like Houston, New York, and Atlanta.
Wait times at some airports have exceeded three hours.
The Senate passed a potential deal to end the shutdown, with TSA officers expected to receive paychecks starting Monday.
ICE officers were deployed to U.S. airports, including LaGuardia, though their duties were not specified.
Executive Summary
Rising fuel prices and geopolitical tensions are driving up airfares, with carriers like Cathay Pacific, SAS, and Finnair already increasing ticket costs. The conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has disrupted Middle Eastern airspace, forcing airlines to take longer, more expensive routes. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby warned that fares could rise by 20% this year, while Delta and American Airlines report strong demand despite higher costs. Meanwhile, a U.S. government shutdown has left TSA officers unpaid, leading to staffing shortages and security lines exceeding three hours at major airports. Travelers like Genevieve Price and Elizabeth Leddy are adjusting their plans, with some considering driving instead of flying. The situation remains fluid, with airlines preparing to cut capacity if demand weakens and Congress working on a deal to end the shutdown.
The broader context includes years of strong demand for air travel, particularly in international leisure markets, though overtourism has sparked backlash in destinations like Japan and Spain. Airlines are monitoring demand closely, with United already reducing off-peak flights. The combination of higher fares, security delays, and fuel costs is testing consumers' willingness to fly, though many, like Price, remain committed to travel despite the challenges.
Full Take
The strongest version of this narrative highlights the immediate economic and logistical pressures on air travel—rising fuel costs, geopolitical disruptions, and government dysfunction—while acknowledging that demand remains resilient for now. The article credibly presents multiple perspectives, from airline executives to frustrated travelers, and avoids overt emotional manipulation. However, it leans into a framing of crisis, emphasizing long security lines and fare hikes without deeply exploring systemic factors like airline pricing strategies or historical patterns of government shutdowns.
Patterns detected: ARC-0024 Ambiguity (vague framing of "soaring fuel prices" without clarifying whether this is a temporary spike or long-term trend), ARC-0043 Motte-and-Bailey (implied blame on Democrats for the shutdown without direct evidence of their role in the impasse).
The root cause paradigm assumes that air travel is primarily vulnerable to external shocks (fuel prices, geopolitics, government failures) rather than structural issues like airline consolidation or labor practices. The unstated assumption is that consumers will absorb higher costs indefinitely, though the article notes airlines are prepared to cut capacity if demand falters. This echoes historical cycles of airline profitability tied to fuel volatility and economic confidence.
For human agency, the implications are mixed: travelers like Price adapt with savvy strategies, while others face deterrents like Leddy’s frustration with security lines. The costs are unevenly distributed—TSA workers go unpaid, while airlines pass fuel surcharges to passengers. Second-order consequences could include reduced tourism spending in overtouristed destinations or a shift toward domestic road trips if flying becomes prohibitively expensive.
Bridge questions: How much of the fare increases are driven by fuel costs versus airline pricing power? Would a permanent TSA funding solution change the narrative around airport security delays? What role does media framing play in amplifying perceptions of travel chaos?
Counterstrike scan: A coordinated influence campaign would exploit fear of travel disruptions to undermine confidence in government or airlines, using selective data (e.g., worst-case security wait times) to amplify outrage. The actual content includes these elements but also provides counterbalancing context (e.g., strong demand, potential shutdown resolution), making it unlikely to be part of a deliberate manipulation effort. The presence of ICE officers at airports, however, introduces a potential distraction from the core issues, which could be leveraged to shift focus toward immigration debates.