Tom Burchfield, Head of Market Intelligence, shares insights from his presentation and panel discussion at ProWein Agora, alongside his takeaways from the event itself.
First time at ProWein Agora. A maze of stands. The no and low section was pretty massive, a sign of it being perhaps the one wine category that is growing. The spirits section also vast.
I managed to locate my former Vivino colleagues (where I worked for six years) to catch up with old friends. They told me the fair was half as big as last year, itself half as big as the year before and that there were fewer attendees. Still felt vast to me.
Agora
This year ProWein reintroduced the Agora stage, where various experts present on and discuss key topics within the industry. How to market to the new generation? How to market no and low? How to leverage new technologies including AI to better serve customers? What is the current state of the fine wine market and where is it going?
That one was the topic I presented on. A lot of ground to cover in 20 minutes, and the aim was to set the scene for a debate with Krister Bengtsson (founder of Star Wine List) and Robert Joseph (journalist and consultant). To further condense my 20 minutes into a 3-bullet point summary of where the market is and where it’s heading:
- Price stability. At the top of the fine wine market, more wines are now either seeing flat or gently rising prices than falling prices.
- Fragmentation. The fine wine market is broader than ever, and this trend is likely to continue with the next generation of collectors.
- Stratification. At the same time, across segments within traditional regions like Bordeaux and Burgundy we see the top of the pyramid looking more secure than further down. Within Bordeaux the portion of the industry that is at risk is growing.
Scene set, half an hour of interesting debate.
Is demand for fine wine elastic?
Yes, in my opinion, not for others.
My take is that participants are doing everything they can to maintain higher release prices – squeezing supply, pouring cash into production to achieve high scores. Is that sustainable on their side? Is it worth the effort with prices softening post-release? I believe there is a price that works. We see this consistently with Bordeaux after release. There is a price at which demand is unlocked. You can try to avoid market reality or you can accept it.
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Liv-ex trades of Lafite 2021
A flight to value. Something we all agree upon. Whether that’s the collapse in demand for Second Wines or changing tastes in the on-trade, consumers are after value.
The next generation of collectors. We agree that price is a challenge. The industry needs a broad base of potential collectors. How does that happen for Burgundy, where even regional wines are becoming a special occasion indulgence? The on-trade needs sommeliers that have not just tasted, but drunk both the classics and the future classics.
GLP-1 medications. An existential threat for the fine wine market? Some say yes, I say not at this point. Fine wine is sheltered to some degree.
Other reflections
- Betraying my ignorance, but I had no idea that Dusseldorf has a big Japanese community? I do now, and can vouch for some excellent ramen as a counterpoint to wurst.
- The drinks industry is clearly faced with many challenges. The more we discuss these, try things, share successes and challenges the better. But don’t forget that wine has an incredible ability to bring people together. Despite the current challenges, people were having fun at ProWein.
- Of the UK contingent travelling to Dusseldorf on the Saturday, judging by how many were supporting the team in blue in the 6 Nations rugby decider, a high proportion were Scottish.
- Was everyone in the brauerei? Heading to Brauerei Schumacher to sample the city’s trademark Alt Bier on Saturday night, it was packed full of Proweiners – probably to be expected, drinks industry people warming up for vinous delights with malted beverages.
Facts Only
Tom Burchfield, Head of Market Intelligence, presented at ProWein Agora in Düsseldorf.
ProWein Agora featured a large "no and low" alcohol section and a vast spirits section.
The event was smaller than previous years, with fewer attendees.
Burchfield's presentation covered the fine wine market, highlighting price stability, fragmentation, and stratification.
A panel discussion followed, debating the elasticity of fine wine demand.
Burchfield argued that producers must accept market realities rather than artificially sustaining high prices.
The industry is seeing a shift toward value, with declining demand for second wines and changing on-trade tastes.
Challenges in attracting younger collectors were noted, particularly in regions like Burgundy.
GLP-1 medications were discussed as a potential but not immediate threat to the fine wine market.
Burchfield observed a significant Japanese community in Düsseldorf.
Many attendees visited Brauerei Schumacher, a local brewery, during the event.
A notable number of Scottish attendees were present, supporting their rugby team.
Executive Summary
Tom Burchfield, Head of Market Intelligence, attended ProWein Agora in Düsseldorf, where he presented on the state of the fine wine market and participated in a panel discussion. The event featured a large "no and low" alcohol section, reflecting growth in that category, alongside a vast spirits section. Burchfield noted that the fair was smaller than previous years, with fewer attendees, though it still felt extensive. His presentation highlighted three key trends in fine wine: price stability at the top, increasing market fragmentation, and stratification within traditional regions like Bordeaux and Burgundy. A debate followed on whether demand for fine wine is elastic, with Burchfield arguing that producers must accept market realities rather than artificially sustaining high prices. Additional observations included the industry's focus on value, challenges in attracting younger collectors, and the potential impact of GLP-1 medications on wine consumption. The event also underscored the wine industry's ability to foster connections despite its challenges.
The discussion revealed differing views on the fine wine market's future, with some emphasizing sustainability concerns and others focusing on adaptability. Burchfield's insights suggest a market in transition, balancing tradition with evolving consumer preferences and economic pressures. The presence of industry professionals at local establishments, like Brauerei Schumacher, highlighted the social and cultural dimensions of the event.
Full Take
The narrative presents a fine wine market at a crossroads, balancing tradition with modern pressures. The strongest version of this analysis acknowledges the industry's adaptability—highlighting trends like price stability at the top, fragmentation, and stratification—while also noting challenges such as attracting younger collectors and the potential impact of health trends like GLP-1 medications. Burchfield’s argument that producers must accept market realities rather than artificially sustaining prices is a pragmatic take, though it contrasts with others who may see demand as inelastic.
Patterns detected: none. The analysis avoids emotional exploitation or distortion, focusing on observable trends and industry dynamics. However, the discussion of GLP-1 medications as a potential threat—while framed as speculative—could be seen as a nod to broader anxieties about health trends disrupting luxury markets. The root cause appears to be a tension between tradition and innovation, with the fine wine market grappling with how to remain relevant amid shifting consumer behaviors and economic pressures.
Implications for human agency and dignity are mixed. While the industry's ability to bring people together is celebrated, the focus on value and accessibility suggests a need to democratize fine wine to some degree. The second-order consequences could include a broader base of collectors if the market adapts, or further consolidation if it resists change. Missing perspectives might include the voices of younger consumers or producers outside traditional regions, who could offer alternative views on sustainability and innovation.
Bridge questions: How might the fine wine market evolve if it embraced technology and new consumer segments more aggressively? What role could education play in making fine wine more accessible to younger generations? Would a shift toward value-driven offerings undermine the prestige of traditional fine wine, or could it expand the market?
Counterstrike scan: If this narrative were part of a coordinated campaign, it might emphasize uncertainty to discourage investment or promote alternative beverages. However, the content does not align with such a pattern, as it presents a balanced view of challenges and opportunities without overt manipulation.
Sentinel — Human
This article appears to be human-written, with indicators such as variable sentence length and a unique voice. However, it's important to note that while the chance of synthetically generated content is low, we cannot claim certainty.