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CROSSPOST: MIKE KONCZAL: Can We Find Literally Any Sign Deportations Are Helping Native

Reporting by Brad DeLongRead the original at braddelong.substack.com

Executive Summary

An assessment of the hypothetical impact of mass deportation on native-born workers, based on ten testable hypotheses, concluded that the expected positive outcomes did not materialize in the data examined. Ten specific hypotheses regarding changes in unemployment rates, employment levels for specific groups, wage growth, job-finding speed, labor share, market tightness, and construction employment were tested. The overall finding indicated a lack of any employment or wage boom for native-born workers following the policy change. The analysis suggests that removing immigrant workers did not result in a redistribution of economic pie but rather represented a deadweight loss, failing to cause the predicted increases in native-born employment, wages, or market improvements.

Facts Only

* Hypothesis 1: Native-born unemployment would fall; this hypothesis failed. Unemployment was higher instead.
* Hypothesis 2: Prime-age native-born employment would rise; this hypothesis failed. Employment was lower than in 2024.
* Hypothesis 3: Prime-age native-born male employment would rise; the employment rate ran roughly around 2024 values, being higher over the last winter but much lower this summer.
* Hypothesis 4: Least-educated native workers would do better; this hypothesis failed.
* Hypothesis 5: States with larger declines in noncitizen employment should see larger native-born employment gains; this hypothesis failed.
* Hypothesis 6: Native-born wage growth would pick up for lower-wage workers; wage growth slowed, and some rebound occurred against an overall collapse.
* Hypothesis 7: Unemployed native workers could find work faster; the job-finding rate held roughly flat in 2025 and fell again in 2026 to its lowest level since 2021.
* Hypothesis 8: Immigration is behind the fall in the labor share, so mass deportations should push it back up; this hypothesis failed. The labor share fell suddenly and dramatically starting in 2025.
* Hypothesis 9: Deportations would tighten the labor market; job openings per unemployed worker and the quits rate were at or below 2024 levels in 2026.
* Hypothesis 10: Native-born workers in construction should particularly benefit; the measured foreign-born share of construction employment fell, and the overall share of native-born prime-age adults working in construction did not rise.

Full Take

The analysis reveals a systematic failure across ten empirically tested hypotheses intended to demonstrate a positive economic outcome for native-born workers following mass deportation. The pattern suggests that the mechanism proposed—that removing immigrant labor would lead to substitution or redistribution benefiting natives—is unsupported by the observed data. The overall conclusion points toward a process of contraction rather than expansion, demonstrating that the policy resulted in a deadweight loss where losses were realized rather than gains redistributed. This outcome aligns with the "complementarity view," suggesting that immigration's role was not one of substitution but as an essential component of the labor factor itself. The narrative attempts to frame deportation as a transfer, but the empirical result is a net negative for native-born employment and wages, mirroring historical context where immigrant labor facilitated union erosion and depressed wages for natives. The persistence of this pattern despite the framing suggests that structural economic forces—such as union power dynamics and the structure of modern labor markets—overrode the intended substitution logic. The implication is that policy interventions focused on immigration shifts often neglect the broader institutional constraints governing labor relations and market outcomes. What assumptions about the relationship between labor flow and domestic employment remain unexamined in this pursuit of a singular payoff?

From the original · Brad DeLong

J.D. Vance promised seven million sidelined men would come roaring back into work.

Read the full story at braddelong.substack.com

Sentinel — Human

Confidence

The text presents a highly opinionated, data-driven critique of the economic effects of deportation policy, structured around testing specific hypotheses against empirical data, strongly suggesting human analytical work.

Signals Detected

Sentence length variance is erratic; uses highly specific jargon interspersed with conversational phrasing.

Clear argumentative trajectory supported by internal evidence (the 10 hypotheses) and external references, exhibiting a strong, albeit polemical, voice.

Directly cites specific data points, hypothesis outcomes, and references prior academic/historical studies, suggesting structured research input rather than pure fabrication.

The core of the argument is a systematic debunking of pre-set narratives (Hypotheses 1-10) using specific, internally calculated data (IPUMS). This demonstrates critical analysis rather than simple assertion.

Human Indicators

Idiosyncratic and highly opinionated framing ('Shoot the moon!', 'total fabrication', 'urban legend') that deviates from neutral journalistic voice.

Use of specific, context-heavy historical references (Mariel Boatlift, Secure Communities) integrated into a modern economic argument.

The text functions as an analysis built around challenging specific policy/economic claims rather than simply reporting facts.