Retailer caution keeps import cargo volume under 2025 projections

This comes as retailers remain “cautious” about building up inventories amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
“Containerised imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is weakening,” said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. “Stalling re-stocking efforts and rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly clouding the outlook.”
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The data shows that despite a skewed year-on-year increase projected for May and June, overall volumes are expected to remain below 2025 levels over the next several months.
In March, the Global Port Tracker recorded 2.16 million TEUs moving through major US ports, marking a 0.6% increase on the previous year. This represented a 13.6% rise compared to February, a period impacted by Asian factory closures for Lunar New Year celebrations and adverse weather that led to cargo delays.
Preliminary estimates place April’s throughput at 2.13 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), registering a projected decline of 3.6% compared to April last year.
The forecast for May points to 2.17 million TEUs, up 11.1% year-over-year, while June is anticipated at 2.13 million TEUs, reflecting an 8.2% increase from the previous year.
Despite these gains, the report expects volumes to fall in the following months. July is forecast at 2.2 million TEUs, down 7.8% from last year, followed by a 5.5% declined to 2.19 million TEUs in August.
In September, import cargo is expected at 2.08 million TEUs, down 1.3%.
For the first half of 2026, the report estimates total imports at 12.59 million TEUs, representing a 0.5% increase from the same period in 2025.
NRF supply chain and customs policy vice president Jonathan Gold said: “The numbers show a year-over-year increase for the next two months, but that’s only because of the sharp fall-off in imports after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced in April 2025. With inflation rising and consumer confidence falling among global economic uncertainty driven by the conflict in Iran, the overall trend of lower imports is expected to continue after that.”
The Global Port Tracker compiles data and forecasts for key US handling points, including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast, New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Facts Only

* Containerised imports in the first quarter were down year over year.
* Forward demand is weakening.
* The Global Port Tracker recorded 2.16 million TEUs moving through major US ports in March, an increase of 0.6% on the previous year.
* April’s throughput is estimated at 2.13 million TEUs, a projected decline of 3.6% compared to April last year.
* May is forecast at 2.17 million TEUs, up 11.1% year-over-year.
* June is anticipated at 2.13 million TEUs, reflecting an 8.2% increase from the previous year.
* July is forecast at 2.2 million TEUs, down 7.8% from last year.
* August is forecast at 2.19 million TEUs, down 5.5% from last year.
* September is expected at 2.08 million TEUs, down 1.3%.
* The report estimates total imports for the first half of 2026 at 12.59 million TEUs.
* The Global Port Tracker compiles data and forecasts for key US handling points, including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston.

Executive Summary

Retailers remain cautious about building inventories due to ongoing economic uncertainty. Containerized imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is weakening, a situation compounded by stalling re-stocking efforts and rising geopolitical tensions. Despite projected year-on-year increases for May and June, overall volumes are expected to remain below 2025 levels over the coming months. Quarterly throughput data shows fluctuations, with April projected to decline compared to the previous year, but forecasts for May and June show short-term increases. However, the overall trend indicates a projected decline in volumes for the following months, with forecasts showing a drop in July and August, and a decline in September. An estimate for the first half of 2026 projects total imports at 12.59 million TEUs, representing a minimal increase compared to the same period in 2025. This trend is attributed by analysts to factors like inflation, falling consumer confidence, and specific trade policies.

Full Take

The narrative presented juxtaposes short-term quarterly gains with a fundamental long-term decline in global import volumes, suggesting that immediate operational data masks deeper macroeconomic and geopolitical structural forces. The data reveals a cyclical pattern where short-term fluctuations (e.g., the surge in May/June) are being overshadowed by persistent headwinds, such as rising inflation and geopolitical conflict, which create a sustained downward trend in demand. This framing is effective because it allows the immediate data (the +11.1% for May) to generate immediate positive attention, while the context (the overall expected fall-off in subsequent months) confirms the underlying skepticism. The analyst commentary connects these volume shifts directly to specific, external shocks, such as the "Liberation Day" tariffs and conflict in Iran, establishing a clear causal link between political instability and trade flow. This suggests a pattern of attributing economic performance primarily to volatile external events rather than stable internal market dynamics. The implication is that while logistical flow can temporarily recover, systemic risks erode confidence and drive volumes toward a lower equilibrium. The critical question is whether the focus on specific, highly visible trade events distracts from the slower, cumulative effects of inflation and reduced consumer confidence on long-term trade commitments.

Sentinel — Human

Confidence

The text exhibits a highly structured, data-focused style, characteristic of professional reporting, but the integration of specific expert commentary suggests a human journalistic origin.

Signals Detected

High transition homogeneity and highly uniform, dense structure typical of data reporting.

Text is perfectly fluent and objective but lacks any idiosyncratic emphasis or personal voice.

Statistical data presentation is highly structured, matching a predictable pattern for financial/logistics reporting.

Specific statistics (TEU counts, dates, percentage changes) appear precise and verifiable, typical of compiled data rather than LLM confabulation.

Human Indicators

The text successfully weaves specific quotes and contextual economic factors (tariffs, inflation) into the statistical reporting, suggesting human journalistic synthesis.

The focus on a specific, named data compilation (Global Port Tracker) grounds the reporting in a verifiable source, a common human journalistic practice.