Community-based forest management in changing contexts: Forest users' perspectives on the future of community forestry in Nepal

| Authors: | Prabin Bhusal, Rajan Parajuli, Erin O. Sills, Conghe Song, Gregory E. Frey, Dil Bahadur Khatri |
| Year: | 2026 |
| Type: | Scientific Journal |
| Station: | Southern Research Station |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2026.103868 |
| Source: | Forest Policy and Economics |
Abstract
The Community Forestry (CF) program in Nepal is often lauded as a successful global example of the participatory forest management model, particularly for restoring degraded forest in the midhills However, recent socio-economic, demographic, ecological, and governance change have transformed forest-people relationships, creating uncertainty about the program's long-term sustainability. In this context, this study aims to identify the socio-ecological and institutional factors shaping community forest users' perceptions of the future of CF in Nepal. Using survey data from 873 households collected in 2023 in Salyan and Pyuthan districts, we employed an ordered logit regression model within a social-ecological systems (SES) framework to analyze perception outcomes. The majority of respondents (67%) expressed optimism regarding the CF program in the study region. The results suggest that long-term migration, off-farm income, raising livestock, and CFUGs' engagement with local forestry officials are significant factors that explain the positive outlook of community forestry in Nepal. Conversely, we identified wildlife crop raiding, female household heads, and local government involvement as significant negative factors affecting the perceived future of community forestry in Nepal. This study extends the SES framework to explain perception-based outcomes in CF under changing rural contexts. The findings highlight the need to adapt CF programs and policies to evolving socio-economic and governance contexts and revitalize local collective efforts for sustainable forest management. Future research could examine longitudinal perception changes and integrate ecological indicators to better assess system resilience.

Facts Only

* The study surveyed 873 households in Salyan and Pyuthan districts in 2023.
* The methodology employed an ordered logit regression model within a social-ecological systems (SES) framework.
* Sixty-seven percent of respondents expressed optimism regarding the Community Forestry (CF) program.
* Significant positive factors explaining optimism included long-term migration, off-farm income, raising livestock, and CFUG engagement with local forestry officials.
* Significant negative factors affecting the perceived future included wildlife crop raiding, female household heads, and local government involvement.

Executive Summary

The study investigated the perceptions of community forest users in Nepal regarding the future sustainability of the Community Forestry (CF) program amid recent socio-economic, demographic, ecological, and governance changes. Data was collected from 873 households across Salyan and Pyuthan districts in 2023. The analysis utilized an ordered logit regression model within a social-ecological systems framework to assess these perceptions. A majority of respondents, 67%, expressed optimism about the CF program in the study region. Positive factors explaining this optimism included long-term migration, off-farm income, livestock rearing, and engagement of Community Forestry User Groups (CFUGs) with local forestry officials. Conversely, negative factors significantly impacted the perceived future, including wildlife crop raiding, female household heads, and involvement of local government. The research suggests that while optimism exists, specific contextual pressures and institutional dynamics create divergent outlooks on community forestry sustainability.

Full Take

The persistence of optimism among community forest users coexists with identified systemic pressures that create significant tension regarding long-term sustainability. The finding that external economic drivers (migration, off-farm income) and internal governance engagement (CFUG interaction) are positive predictors suggests that the program's perceived success is mediated by tangible socio-economic improvements and participatory institutional linkage. Simultaneously, the negative factors—wildlife crop raiding, gender dynamics, and local government influence—signal areas where external pressures undermine localized control and ecological stability. This points to a critical divergence: structural improvements do not automatically guarantee sustainability if they are overlaid upon unresolved conflicts over resource access and shifting power relations. The necessity of adapting CF policies lies in recognizing that the SES framework must account for dynamic feedback loops where ecological vulnerability directly impacts socio-economic outcomes, demanding management strategies that address both external economic realities and internal governance complexities simultaneously to foster resilient collective action rather than mere optimism.