En gráficos: ¿cómo le está yendo a la economía de EE.UU. bajo la presidencia de Trump?

The economic performance under the Trump presidency presents a mixed picture, with stated claims from the president contrasted by underlying data points. The economy is generally expanding, with the real GDP growing at 2.2% annually, which outpaced other G7 nations during the period leading up to and including the election cycle, despite initial forecasts suggesting headwinds from tariffs. Growth is also supported by significant investment in artificial intelligence, evidenced by massive spending on data center construction. Inflation has risen to 3.7%, influenced by external factors such as the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which disrupted energy supplies. While household income, adjusted for inflation, has increased, specific economic assessments suggest that the combination of policy changes and higher inflation has negatively impacted the real purchasing power of middle-income families. Employment creation, while maintaining a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, has slowed compared to the previous administration's pace, partly due to restrictive immigration policies. Furthermore, government debt has increased, leading to rising interest rates that increase the cost of borrowing for households, particularly in the housing market.

The narrative presented involves a tension between top-line economic indicators and the felt experience of the average household, suggesting significant divergence in perceived economic health. The documented growth in GDP and AI investment, alongside low unemployment, demonstrates resilience at the aggregate level; however, this stability masks specific pressures evident in inflation dynamics and wealth distribution. The mechanism driving potential negative outcomes appears rooted in policy interactions—specifically tariffs and geopolitical instability—which translated into cost-of-living pressures for consumers. The analysis of household income loss suggests that nominal growth does not equate to real gains when factoring in inflationary spikes and fiscal shifts; the disproportionate negative impact on lower- and middle-income groups, estimated by the ITEP, points toward a structural challenge rather than purely cyclical fluctuation. Furthermore, the correlation between increased government debt, higher interest rates, and housing affordability introduces a systemic vulnerability. The persistence of growth alongside rising costs indicates that economic progress is not automatically distributed equitably, raising questions about who benefits from the documented expansion versus who absorbs the resulting inflationary and debt-related strains. What alternative policy pathways could decouple aggregate growth from cost-of-living increases while mitigating wealth divergence?