The German right-wing party CDU celebrated new election victories in a lively manner on Sunday evening. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the party more than doubled its vote share and became the strongest political force. In Berlin, it remained below expectations but still gained ground.
Germany has never been so interested in the small state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The election result also changes national politics.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is no longer a political force in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania that has any leverage in the state's politics.
When this was written on Sunday evening, it was unclear whether the CDU would even make it to the national level. Its support had dropped to five percent during the vote count that evening, the threshold for a majority.
In the preceding years, the CDU was the second of the two major parties in the state alongside the Social Democrats (SPD). Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania was also the electoral district and homeland of former Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Instead of an isolated incident, Sunday's election results indicate a broader national trend. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is already the third of Germany's 16 states where the AfD is the largest party.
The next test is in West Germany. The elections will be held next year in five of the former West German states, including Germany's most populous North Rhine-Westphalia.
Three defeats for the ruling parties
There was also the fact that the Chancellor came before the cameras to comment on the result during the election on Sunday evening. German Chancellors do not have a tradition of doing so in local elections immediately after the election.
Merz said on Sunday that the election result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is a "catastrophe":
The CDU lost its position as the largest party in Berlin to the left-wing Die Linke. This means that the CDU loses the position of the state government and moves to the opposition.
The loss in Berlin is a symbolically heavy blow because the federal capital is the center of media attention. The loss deepens the perception of the Christian Democrats as a declining force.
Merz, as Chancellor, is responsible for the CDU's election campaigns at both the state level. Three consecutive poor results in just two weeks strengthen the party's internal voting pressures, which call into question both Merz's line and the direction of the coalition government.
Railo on Ukrainian policy
The domestic political instability in Germany is not just a national matter because the country is the EU's largest economy.
The weaker Merz's position as Chancellor means that Germany's ability to make long-term commitments at the EU level is weaker – whether it is about increasing defense spending, supporting Ukraine, or the EU's joint economic decisions.
Public disagreement has already occurred within the government about the Ukraine line. Germany's Christian Democratic Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer has called support for Ukraine a "mistake of omission".
The weakening position of the Chancellor makes such differences more visible and the government's anti-Ukrainian line more fragile.
The strengthening of the AfD in Germany resonates with the rest of the European right-wing. It may encourage similar parties in other member states.