Kenya has called for increased African self-reliance and continued adherence to multilateral norms and institutions, amid worsening global fragmentation sparked by conflict in Iran. Speaking at Chatham House in London, Kenya’s prime cabinet secretary and cabinet secretary for foreign and diaspora affairs, Musalia Mudavadi, described the current international environment as a historic inflection point.
“We have entered a more complex, perilous and contested global order,” he said. “Africa must deliberately transform its immense potential into geo-economic influence and an assertive international voice.”
Mudavadi argued that the global geopolitical environment is increasingly defined by interest-driven alliances, economic nationalism and intensifying competition over strategic resources. Multilateral institutions that once served as the cornerstone of global governance are facing renewed pressure, while geopolitical tensions – from the war in Ukraine to instability in the Middle East – continue to reverberate across global markets, he said.
The fallout from the conflict in Iran will disproportionately impact countries in the Global South, he added, with spiralling oil prices presenting a “looming crisis” and “potential anarchy”. Kenya, which imports the majority of its oil, will likely suffer from inflation and a higher cost of living as a direct result. To limit the damage, Mudavadi appealed to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to help diffuse tensions and urgently consider the ripple effects on emerging economies.
Kenya highlights multi-alliance approach
In his address Mudavadi laid out Kenya’s strategic foreign policy priorities, which he described as a “multi-alliance” approach – maintaining strong relationships with traditional partners while expanding ties with emerging powers.
“Kenya embraces a multi-alliance approach that balances national interests with diversified international partnerships,” Mudavadi explained. “Our aim is not to take sides, but to choose mutually beneficial partners anchored in mutual respect and shared prosperity.”
Kenya maintains deep relationships with long-standing Western partners, including the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union (EU), particularly in areas such as security cooperation, trade, technology and climate action. The Economic Partnership Agreement between Kenya and the EU, which entered into force in 2024, is one example of this continued engagement. The deal grants Kenyan exports duty-free access to the EU’s vast market, creating new opportunities for Kenyan agricultural and manufacturing industries.
At the same time, Kenya is expanding economic partnerships across Asia and the Middle East. China remains a key partner in infrastructure, trade and investment, while commercial links with India are expanding. Meanwhile, ties with Gulf states – including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia – are deepening, particularly in logistics and renewable energy.
The upcoming Africa-France Summit in Nairobi in May further underscores this shift, with Kenya set to become the first Anglophone country to host the forum since its creation in 1973.
As the continent grapples with the fallout of the Iran conflict, Mudavadi believes that the dual-pronged strategy of self-reliance and multi-alliances will help limit the negative effects of exogenous shocks in his country.
He pointed to strong economic growth, which has been achieved, in part, due to this mandate. “Economic data show the country has stabilised since 2023 after a year of upheavals that included high inflation, a foreign exchange crisis and rising food prices,” he said. “Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) improved from 4.7% in 2024 to an estimated 5% in 2025.”
This upward trajectory aligns with the World Bank’s projections of GDP growth of 4.9% in 2026, although this may be revised as the full impact of the Iran conflict is yet to be seen.
After Mudavadi visited the United Kingdom, where he also met with UK Export Finance (UKEF) to discuss the Nairobi Railway project – a partnership aimed at upgrading Nairobi’s commuter rail – he continued to Russia to seek the return of Kenyans fighting in the Ukraine conflict. Before arriving in London, he was in India, where he discussed trade and investment ties with Indian officials at the Raisina Dialogue 2026, a conference on geopolitics and geoeconomics.
Greater self-reliance to limit external shocks
Mudavadi underlined that, along with diversifying its partner base, Africa’s self-reliance is another key foreign policy priority for Kenya. He argued that Africa’s long-term stability and prosperity will depend on its ability to trade more with itself, build resilient regional supply chains and transform economic potential into strategic influence.
“The Middle East war and other global crises, including Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, reinforce the need for African states to diversify supply chains and more importantly accelerate integration, including the full realisation of the objectives of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement [AfCFTA),” he said.
To achieve this, Kenya’s president, William Ruto, recently called for strengthened digital pathways to accelerate intra-African trade at the 39th Ordinary Session of the African Union Summit, held in Addis Ababa in February. He chairs the AU Assembly Committee of Heads of State and Government on the AfCFTA implementation and is the co-champion of the Digital Trade Protocol. Kenya has, he said, led the drive to unlock Africa’s trade potential through technology-enabled platforms.
On the sidelines of the Summit, Mudavadi convened a high-level meeting in partnership with Real Sources Africa (RSA) – a pan-African trade-infrastructure institution which serves as Kenya’s AfCFTA trading company – to launch two government-backed digital trade platforms: BiasharaLink and Deal House.
The platforms were designed by RSA to empower African embassies as transaction-enabling hubs for trade and investment, aiming to transform more than 1,000 diplomatic missions across the continent into proactive originators and facilitators of commercially viable deals.
Commenting on Kenya’s transformative role as a driver of greater African self-reliance through intra-African trade, Felix Chege, founder and CEO of RSA, said: “Africa is at a critical juncture. Recent global events have further underlined that we are vulnerable to external shocks. At Real Sources Africa, our raison d’être is to build the digital infrastructure needed so that Africa can trade with itself; supporting long-term security and stability across the continent. Our ambition is equally shared by the Government of Kenya, which has made intra-African trade a critical foreign policy priority.”
This strategic drive is already bearing fruit, Mudavadi claimed, affirming that Kenya has played a leading role in deepening integration with the East African Community. “Intra-East African trade expanded by 24.5% in the second quarter of 2025 to reach $4.6bn,” he said.
Facts Only
* Kenya calls for increased African self-reliance.
* Kenya advocates for adherence to multilateral norms and institutions.
* The current international environment is described as a "historic inflection point."
* Global fragmentation is driven by conflict in Iran.
* Africa must transform potential into geo-economic influence.
* Interest-driven alliances and economic nationalism are key factors in the global environment.
* Multilateral institutions are facing renewed pressure.
* The conflict in Iran will disproportionately impact Global South countries.
* Kenya imports the majority of its oil.
* Kenya’s GDP improved from 4.7% in 2024 to an estimated 5% in 2025.
* Kenya maintains relationships with the US, UK, EU, China, India, and Gulf states.
* The Economic Partnership Agreement between Kenya and the EU entered into force in 2024.
* Kenya’s “multi-alliance” approach is being implemented.
Executive Summary
Full Take
Kenya’s strategic maneuvering reflects a profound recognition of systemic vulnerability – a vulnerability born from decades of reliance on Western-led global systems that have demonstrably failed to protect nations from cascading crises. The core pattern here is a desperate pivot, fueled by a belated realization that the traditional tools of diplomacy and global governance are insufficient against forces like resource competition and increasingly unhinged geopolitical ambitions. Mudavadi’s invocation of “anarchy” surrounding oil prices isn't merely a prediction; it's a carefully calibrated signal about the limits of global order and the potential for localized disasters to escalate into wider instability, particularly given Africa's reliance on vulnerable supply chains. The "multi-alliance" strategy isn't simply diversification; it’s a pragmatic acknowledgment that existing alliances have demonstrably failed to shield Kenya from shocks—a key structural problem reflected in the repetition of crises, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and COVID-19.
The attempted launch of the digital trade platforms—BiasharaLink and Deal House—with Real Sources Africa (RSA) represents a significant, if somewhat belated, attempt to address this systemic weakness. It’s a bet on technology as a means of building resilience – a reflection of the broader narrative around “decoupling” and building regional economic blocs as buffers against external pressures. The strategic alignment with the AfCFTA is not just an economic initiative; it's a defensive posture, attempting to forge a more self-sufficient economic space within Africa. However, the reliance on “technology-enabled platforms” reveals a fundamental assumption – that digital solutions can overcome deeply entrenched issues of infrastructure, governance, and the power dynamics within the global trading system. A crucial, unstated assumption is that this shift will genuinely foster mutual respect and shared prosperity – a gamble, given historical patterns of exploitation and unequal power relations.
Patterns detected: ARC-0024 Ambiguity – The urgency surrounding “potential anarchy” due to oil prices is amplified by the lack of a concrete explanation of *how* this chaos will manifest, leaving open the possibility of simply projecting anxieties. ARC-0043 Motte-and-Bailey – The claim of a stabilized GDP (4.7% to 5%) seems reliant on a selective interpretation of economic data, given the ongoing broader global instability and the significant contextual factors like the Ukraine war. Further investigation is warranted on how this growth truly reflects underlying economic strength versus stabilization.
Sentinel — Likely Human
This article presents a largely neutral analysis of Kenya's foreign policy, characterized by cautious phrasing and reliance on generalized statements about global trends and economic projections. While demonstrating a reasonable level of detail concerning Kenyan initiatives, the absence of robust sourcing and the prevalence of hedging suggest a possible degree of AI-assisted or formulaic production.
