PARIS — The number of satellites launched to provide militaries and defense departments with intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance data from space is expected to increase more than fourfold in the next decade, industry consultancy Novaspace said.
Defense-owned satellites for ISR will drive the future market in the segment, with 2,306 launched into orbit in the 2026-2035 period, from 485 launched in the decade through to 2025, according to data presented by Novaspace Chief Executive Officer Pacôme Révillon at the Space Defense and Security Summit here on Tuesday.
The war in Ukraine has underscored the importance of space-based intelligence on the battlefield, while a brief halt of data sharing by the United States in March 2025 showed the need for governments to have assured access to space-based intel. That in turn has been a boon to commercial providers of ISR satellites, such as Finland’s ICEYE.
RELATED
ISR “is obviously a key priority currently for most nations,” Révillon said. ”It’s clearly a world that was already largely transparent, but the direction is as much for a diversification of assets for real-time and persistent intelligence.”
Most of the defense ISR satellites launched in the coming decade will be for constellations rather than individual satellites, according to Novaspace.
Government budgets for space defense are forecast to climb to $121 billion in 2028 from $74 billion last year, according to Novaspace, which said at least 55 countries have space defense budgets. Government budgets for space defense amounted to $53 billion in 2022, based on the consultancy’s data.
Novaspace expects the number of operational systems in space may jump as much as fivefold to between 50,000 and 100,000 in 2036 from 18,000 satellites in 2026, increasing the need to keep track of them all.
More than 400 satellites for space situational awareness, or SSA, will be launched in 2025-2034, according to Novaspace. Global spending on SSA is forecast to amount to $61 billion over the period, with defense programs accounting for the bulk of that, at $52 billion.
Rudy Ruitenberg is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. He started his career at Bloomberg News and has experience reporting on technology, commodity markets and politics.
Facts Only
Novaspace predicts intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) satellite launches will increase more than fourfold between 2025 and 2035.
2,306 defense-owned ISR satellites are projected for launch from 2026 to 2035.
485 defense-owned ISR satellites were launched in the decade ending in 2025.
Government space defense budgets are forecast to reach $121 billion in 2028.
Government space defense budgets were $74 billion last year and $53 billion in 2022.
At least 55 countries maintain space defense budgets.
Operational systems in space are projected to increase from 18,000 in 2026 to between 50,000 and 100,000 by 2036.
Over 400 space situational awareness (SSA) satellites are projected for launch from 2025 to 2034.
Global spending on SSA is forecast at $61 billion for 2025-2034, with $52 billion attributed to defense programs.
The United States halted data sharing for a brief period in March 2025.
ICEYE is a commercial provider of ISR satellites.
Executive Summary
Defense-owned intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities are entering a period of rapid expansion, shifting from individual satellite deployments toward large-scale constellations. This growth is driven by a perceived need for persistent, real-time intelligence and assured autonomous access to space data, a requirement highlighted by the conflict in Ukraine and a temporary disruption in U.S. data sharing in early 2025. This environment has created significant opportunities for commercial providers to supplement government assets.
Financial investment is scaling alongside technical deployment, with global space defense budgets expected to rise to $121 billion by 2028. A secondary but critical market is emerging in space situational awareness (SSA) to manage the projected surge of operational systems, which could reach 100,000 by 2036. While the trend toward "transparent" battlefields is clear, the reliance on vast numbers of smaller assets suggests a strategic move toward diversification to ensure resilience against interference or failure.
Full Take
The strongest version of this narrative is that the modern geopolitical landscape has rendered space the primary domain for strategic intelligence, necessitating a transition from a few high-value targets to resilient, distributed constellations.
The central persuasion vector here relies on the "Authority Game." The entire projection of the future market—including the specific numbers of satellites and billions in spending—rests solely on the data provided by a single industry consultancy, Novaspace. Because the claims are delivered as precise numerical forecasts rather than estimations, the consultancy's status as an "industry expert" is used to substitute for independent verification or transparent methodology.
Patterns detected: ARC-0062 Authority Game
This narrative is driven by a "Security Dilemma" paradigm: as one nation increases its orbital surveillance to ensure security, others must follow to avoid transparency gaps, creating a recursive loop of escalation. This echoes the Cold War arms race but shifted to the vacuum of space. The unstated assumption is that "persistent intelligence" equals "security," ignoring the possibility that such saturation increases the risk of orbital collisions or the incentive for anti-satellite warfare.
The second-order consequence is the privatization of sovereign intelligence. When governments rely on commercial providers like ICEYE for "assured access," the line between public defense policy and corporate profit motives blurs. Human agency is shifted from democratic oversight to the boardrooms of aerospace firms.
If this were a coordinated influence campaign, the playbook would involve using a "neutral" consultancy to leak high-growth projections, thereby signaling to investors that space defense is a "guaranteed" growth sector and pressuring governments to increase budgets to avoid falling behind. The actual content aligns with this pattern by presenting spending increases as inevitable forecasts rather than policy choices.
Bridge Questions:
1. If orbital density increases fivefold, does the risk of Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions) outweigh the intelligence benefits?
2. How does the transition to commercial ISR providers change the legal framework of sovereign intelligence gathering?
3. Would these budget projections hold if the conflict in Ukraine reached a permanent diplomatic resolution?