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Is SpaceX Stock a Buy Before Its First Earnings Report as a Public Company?

Chimera readability score 53 out of 100, Graduate reading level.

Now that Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), or SpaceX for short, has arrived on Wall Street, investors can begin looking ahead to its first earnings report as a public company. It might be the most anticipated event of the earnings season, expected sometime in early August.
Not only will CEO Elon Musk deliver updates on SpaceX's business, but a ton has happened over the past few weeks. The company is acquiring Cursor, an artificial intelligence (AI) start-up, for $60 billion in stock. Additionally, SpaceX now has just over $100 billion in cash to put to work toward its ambitious goals, including putting AI data centers in space.
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Despite all the buzz, I'm not a buyer heading into SpaceX's first earnings report. Here's why.
SpaceX will need time to deliver on its immense potential
The company's S-1 filing turned heads, pegging SpaceX's total addressable market at $28.5 trillion. Although most people know SpaceX for Starlink and its rocket launches, the company attributes the vast majority of its addressable market to AI.
SpaceX is certainly a unique company, with a tantalizing mix of growth opportunities across AI and space. However, achieving its ambitious goals, including those orbital data centers, won't happen overnight. Elon Musk is known for setting a high bar, even if it takes years to deliver results.
For as much growth potential SpaceX has in AI, it's also currently the company's least profitable business unit and faces steep competition from OpenAI and others. Starlink is SpaceX's most profitable business, but its revenue growth slowed dramatically from 96.4% in 2024 to 49.8% last year.
SpaceX's IPO is a game changer, and it wouldn't be surprising to see growth accelerate across the company as Elon Musk deploys billions of dollars of fresh capital. That said, SpaceX's appeal is far more rooted in its long-term opportunities than what the company will likely deliver by its first earnings report.
That valuation could spell trouble in the meantime
It's not a bad thing to look ahead. After all, Wall Street typically trades stocks based on what it believes will happen, not the past. But it gets tricky with SpaceX, a stock with a market cap of $2.2 trillion. That's roughly 118 times the company's total revenue last year.

Sentinel — Human

Confidence

The text reads as a human-informed analysis blending verifiable metrics with a skeptical, long-term investment perspective.

Signals Detected
low severity: Sentence length variance is erratic; transitions are slightly less mechanical than pure AI output.
low severity: Presence of idiosyncratic emphasis ('I'm not a buyer') and an explicit, dissenting voice that breaks the purely objective flow.
low severity: The argument structure follows a human-style trajectory: hook (excitement) -> data dump (facts/buzz) -> counterargument/thesis (skepticism) -> conclusion.
low severity: The use of specific, yet speculative financial comparisons (e.g., Nvidia 2009 signal) suggests either deep domain knowledge or intentional narrative framing rather than simple LLM confabulation.
Human Indicators
The introduction of a clear, personal thesis ('I'm not a buyer') that intentionally contradicts the celebratory tone of the preceding facts.
The mixing of highly speculative financial commentary with factual data in a way that reflects an investment opinion rather than pure reporting.