This week, Farm Credit Canada released its farmland report for 2025 numbers. The report suggests that land values maintained the same rate of growth over 2024, at 9.3%, but that there are significant regional differences (i.e. B.C. actually had a price contraction and Ontario's price growth barely matches inflation).
The farmland report looks at 2025 figures. We want to know, now that we're three months in to a new year and crop will be going in the ground soon, what are land prices doing where you are?
Check out Shaun Haney's spot on Market Day Report discussing the farmland value number!
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Hey, great to be with you here this morning. So Farm Credit Canada every year puts out a land value report. And so their 2025 report is out this week. And I had the chance to have JP Gervais from Farm Credit Canada on RealAg Radio on Wednesday. And the national average for 2025 compared to 2024, land values are up 9.3%. Now, as JP explains, that doesn't necessarily tell the whole storey. There are some real regional differences. Just like in the US from state to state, we're going to see stronger and weaker markets. If you look at the Canadian prairies, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Alberta was up 11.4%, Saskatchewan up 9.4 and Manitoba up 12.2. That's in contrast to Ontario, where land prices were only up 2.2% for the year and Quebec was 4.8%. The only province that declined was British Columbia, which happens to be one of the most expensive land markets in the entire country because of some of the specialty crops and wine industry. It was actually down 1.7%. So definitely some variety and range there across the country.
Interesting. It sounds like we've got another year of roughly 9% farmland value growth, but profitability is tight. And are we seeing a growing disconnect between land values and farm income, you think?
Yeah. You know, I asked JP Gervais about this and, you know, he acknowledges, yeah, and this isn't something that's new. You know, go to a lot of farmer meetings across the country and you'll hear farmers say, I don't know how they pencil that out. Not sure what calculator they're using. Like there is has been this disconnect and I think institutional interest in farmland because it's been a great place to put capital for almost two decades, relatively speaking, to some other investment opportunities that's provided some lift to the market as well. For Farmers input costs are high, margins are tight. Trying to pencil it out is kind of tough, but we know this. There is limited land supply. We're not making more farmland in North America. In Canada as well. There's a little bit of increase in Northern Ontario, but pretty slim. Brazil is the only country where we see a great expansion. So because of that tight supply, we're not making more farmland. I think that also provides a little bit of a different kind of buoyancy to land market. If we were to compare it to say something like commercial or residential real
estate, we don't have farmland, factories. So, yeah, that's a really good point. So you mentioned buyers are becoming more cautious. So what are you seeing on the ground in terms of purchasing behaviour heading into 2026?
Yeah, JP Gervais and I talked about this in our interview on RealAg Radio. Top quality land is still getting high bids. If there's a strong fit with the existing operation. Neighbouring piece of land that doesn't come available all the time, it fits into the operation in a very synergistic kind of way. That land is going to get some bids. Good high quality farmland also getting bids. What's maybe getting a little bit less is some of that lower quality or sort of marginal land, depending where you are in the country, similar to how we, you know, we look at residential real estate. I asked jp, is land staying on the market longer before it's sold? He said they don't have any data on that. But, you know, anecdotally, as you talk to farmers across the country, in different speeches that I do, they'll say yes, like one of the things I heard from a couple before land came for sale and you didn't even know it. But now you'll see a sign go up. That's a little bit of a difference. And so, yeah, I think we are seeing a bit of a slowing, but prices continue to expand as we saw year over year. 2024 was 9.3%, 2025 was 9.3. We'll wait for FCC's mid year report that will come out later on here in 2026.
An insight into our farmland values is so important to our industry. So really appreciate you joining us again this morning, Shaun. To RealAg Radio, Shaun Haney. And you can watch Shaun on his show, RealAg Radio, which airs at 4:30pm Eastern weekdays on Rule Radio, channel 147 on Sirius XM. And we'll talk to him here again on Market Day Report tomorrow.