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Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe.
On our radar
US-Iran war escalates, intensifying wider fallout
As the Cheat Sheet goes to press, US President Donald Trump is threatening the “largest-yet” attacks on Iran. Trump previously threatened to destroy Iranian civilisation, and on 22 July said that the US would bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant for each ship attacked by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Retaliatory strikes on civilian infrastructure of this sort are blatant violations of international law. Fifty-five people have been killed in US strikes on Iran, and hundreds more wounded, since the ceasefire collapsed earlier this month, according to the Iranian Ministry of Health. Meanwhile, four members of the US military were killed in Iranian strikes on bases in Jordan and Iraq, and Iran has continued to target other countries hosting US military bases in the region. The financial cost of the war for the US is over $37.5 billion since February. By comparison, UN-led humanitarian response funds have received $12.5 billion in funding from donors so far this year. Meanwhile, the already substantial humanitarian impacts of the US war are set to expand, with global oil prices once again rising and with Houthi authorities in Yemen now launching attacks on Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, another key route for global shipping and the world’s oil supply.
Hunger rises in Yemen as it is drawn into US-Iran fray
As Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who control the north of the country, jump into the US-Iran fray with attacks on Saudi oil tankers and a promise to hit any tanker that uses Saudi ports, there’s much more than a rise in global oil prices at risk. Yemen has been at war for more than 11 years, with the Houthis fighting a pro-government coalition that is nominally led by Saudi Arabia, although it has pulled back in recent years. For the most part, the devastating war’s frontlines have been quiet for years, although there is no official peace and hunger is once again rising to dangerous levels because of ongoing displacement, economic collapse, and low aid funding. Now Yemenis have to worry about an escalation of conflict, not just in the neighbouring seas, but also in the country. Iran – which backs the Houthis – reportedly already transported military equipment and advisors to bolster their ability to blockade the Red Sea. If Saudi Arabia and its allies respond with military force, a conflict that is mostly cold but is still destroying lives through hunger and a lack of clean water and healthcare will only get worse.
Government and opposition dialogue in DRC met with skepticism
The Congolese government has yielded to long-standing calls for a national dialogue, but questions remain over who will be invited and what will be discussed. Kinshasa appears to want the talks to focus on forging national unity against Rwandan aggression in the east, where Kigali is backing the M23/AFC insurgency. It appears to have already ruled out M23/AFC participation, and the rebels seem to be counting themselves out too. In their absence, dialogue will likely revolve around the ruling party and political opposition. It’s unclear whether the government will tackle the opposition's central grievance: President Félix Tshisekedi's push to change the constitution, potentially allowing him to seek a third term. Opposition groups had planned a 22 July protest to oppose a power grab, but suspended it after the dialogue announcement. Analysts seem skeptical that a dialogue will amount to much. Rather than fostering reconciliation, past dialogues have served as vehicles for the government to co-opt rivals by doling out ministry posts, jobs in state-owned companies, and other spoils.
Horn of Africa’s “polycrisis” threatens millions
Africa’s Greater Horn region is facing a looming “polycrisis” – a buzzword coined to describe how multiple simultaneous emergencies can amplify each other. In this case, it’s the overlaps of drought, rising prices, and conflict. An extremely strong El Niño threatens the livelihoods of millions of people in parts of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern Ethiopia – just a few years after the historically bad 2020-2023 drought. The widening Gulf war, which is snarling food and fuel shipments and driving up inflation, could push millions more into acute hunger by the end of the year. Stuck on those ships is fertiliser, with delayed deliveries (and price hikes) expected to hurt next year’s harvest – and potentially beyond. Long-running local conflicts are also undermining the region’s rural economies: the al-Shabab insurgency in Somalia, the Tigray crisis in Ethiopia (and its potential to turn into a much wider conflagration), and Sudan’s ongoing nightmare. All of this is happening as the aid industry faces the leanest of times and amid international diplomacy’s ever greater enfeeblement.
What’s behind rising arrests and kidnappings of aid workers
Aid worker kidnappings doubled last year to over 230, and some 280 were also detained or arrested, according to new summary stats from the Aid Worker Security Database (AWSD), which point to an expanding problem of intimidation and threats by states and armed groups. The killings of 350 aid workers last year also sits at historical highs – with more than half of those in Gaza. States and armed groups are flouting humanitarian norms and laws, and security specialists say deepening donor aid cuts have also drained organisational resources to stay safe. AWSD researchers cite a “growing criminalisation, control, and distrust of aid” for the rise in detentions and kidnapping. This may be the most stark in Yemen, where Houthi authorities have arrested dozens of people, and some have died in detention. Armed actors “know that kidnapping a team suspends operations across an entire region”, a recent Humanitarian Practice Network analysis warned. “Humanitarian protection policy and the operational practices that implement it need to catch up.”
Long-term political violence leads to increased interpersonal violence
The long-term exposure of young people to political violence significantly increases the risk of interpersonal violence, new research shows. Data from more than 35,400 young people aged 13 to 24 in nine African countries found that exposure to long-running violence – 15 years or more – was linked to heightened abuse at home, among peers, or at school. However, short-term exposure (violence occurring over one to five years) showed no significant association. The researchers suggest five explanations for the divergence, including: a culture of insecurity, in which constant political unrest creates high levels of stress; social learning, where violence is witnessed and normalised; shifting social norms that tolerate violence more broadly; economic hardship, which increases the chances of exploitation; and the erosion of community trust and social safety nets. Humanitarian responses, they note, should not focus only on a child’s emergency needs and immediate circumstances, but also seek to counter “the long shadow of past conflicts”.
Weekend Read
And finally…
Is your AI chatbot kowtowing to a repressive regime?
New research from Meta’s Oversight Board found commercial large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, DeepSeek, Google, Meta, OpenAI, and xAI are far less likely to criticise repressive leaders and governments. The research calls it “free speech infringements by proxy”. Apps and material produced by these generative AI tools could actively reproduce restrictions, including on political criticism. It’s also unclear why these AI models are doing this – underscoring the need for companies to be transparent and to build in human rights due diligence into the process, before it’s too late. China, Thailand, Cambodia, and Saudi Arabia topped the list of countries with the highest refusal rates when LLMs were prompted to create materials criticising governments.